The rate of violence perpetrated by men formerly held at Guantánamo Bay under Barack Obama has dropped slightly, according to a new US intelligence summary, even as the rate of so-called recidivism from those released under George W Bush remained steady and higher.
The new statistics, released on Thursday in the latest semiannual assessment from Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, come as the Obama administration labors to find a US site at which to hold dozens of men indefinitely and without charge, outside Guantánamo.
Six of 121 Guantánamo detainees released after Obama took office in 2009 have been confirmed as “re-engaging” in terrorist or insurgent violence, the assessment found, a rate of 4.9%. In March, the rate was 5.2%, for six detainees out of 115 released by Obama. Last September, the rate was 6.8%, for six out of 88 detainees released.
Intelligence also indicated that confirmed re-engagement among the 532 detainees released by George W Bush held steady since the previous report. The latest assessment put the re-engagement rate at 20.9%, or 111 former detainees, which did not change from March. Last September, however, the confirmed “recidivism” rate was 19%, for 101 detainees released by Bush.
The assessment did record an increase in “suspected” re-engagement under Obama, which went from 0.9% in March, for one detainee out of 115, to 4.9% in the newest report, or six detainees out of 121. The suspicion rate also rose for the 532 Bush-era detainees: 12.8% were suspected of committing terrorist or insurgent violence in March, or 68 men; 14.1%, 73 men, are suspected today.
US intelligence officials define confirmed “re-engagement” as “a preponderance of information which identifies a specific former GTMO detainee as directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities”, not including propaganda.
“Suspected” re-engagement is “plausible but unverified or single-source reporting” of the same behavior.
While intelligence and administration officials and lawmakers use terms like “recidivism” or “re-engagement” to describe violence from ex-Guantánamo detainees, the vast majority of former detainees have been released without the military issuing any charges against them.
Many detainees were apprehended not by US officials but by allied intelligence or security forces, which possess independent reasons for handing detainees to the US, thereby complicating the certainty with which US officials presume Guantánamo detentions to be justified.
The new report is aimed at Congress, which in 2011 mandated Clapper’s office to produce it. Congressional opponents of closing Guantánamo have used the prospect of released detainees committing acts of terrorism or insurgency as the chief reason to stymie Obama’s pledge to close the facility.
That pledge is at a critical moment. Obama’s current plan to “close” Guantánamo will still involve the indefinite detention of approximately 50 detainees who have been neither cleared for transfer nor charged with war crimes.
Human rights groups have long derided the plan as exporting the objectionable practices at Guantánamo to the United States – “Gitmo North” is the dismissive term used by campaigners – rather than substantively closing Guantánamo.
A Pentagon team led by senior detentions official Alisa Stack has spent much of August surveying potential sites around the country where Guantánamo detainees to be held in continued indefinite detention.
Stack’s efforts have attracted opposition from local conservative lawmakers. Kansas Republican senator Pat Roberts has threatened to block the confirmation of the next secretary of the army if Obama moves Guantánamo detainees to the army base at Fort Leavenworth.
After Senator Tim Scott, a South Carolina Republican, accompanied Stack’s team on Wednesday to the naval brig near Charleston, he remained determined in his opposition to the plan.
“The only solution is enemy combatants must stay in Guantánamo Bay,” Scott told a press conference.
