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ABC News
ABC News
National
state political reporter Paige Cockburn

New South Wales election: Labor pins hopes on four seats still in doubt to achieve a majority

Which seats remain in doubt in NSW election?

There's still a question mark over how many seats Labor will secure in the New South Wales parliament as vote counting resumes this morning.

Labor won Saturday's state election but the incoming Chris Minns' government will need two more seats to secure the all-important 47 seats needed for a majority.

"We're absolutely confident of the 45 and confident they will go onto a majority," ABC election analyst Antony Green said.

"Labor will reach 47 and potentially go beyond that."

Currently, they are ahead in four of the 14 seats still in doubt — Terrigal, Miranda, Ryde and Kiama.

But with only 50 per cent of total votes counted, and a record number of postal votes to process, Labor could easily lose the lead in these seats.

Postal voters are generally more Liberal-leaning in New South Wales as they tend to be submitted by older voters or those in regional areas.

The Liberal party also actively encourages supporters to take up postal voting.

In this election, half-a-million postal vote packs were sent out and voters have until April 6 to get their votes in to the Electoral Commission.

So far, there's been no counting of postal votes for Terrigal and Miranda.

Terrigal has only ever been in Liberal hands but Labor's Sam Boughton, a 31-year-old physiotherapist, has a chance of turning it red for the first time.

The Central Coast surfer who works in aged care says the huge swing was a shock and thinks a lot of voters got behind him due to his health background.

"People have a lot respect for health care workers, I think that’s a big reason Chris Minns's campaign has been so successful, because we are advocating for essential workers," he told the ABC.

Liberal incumbent Adam Crouch, who held the seat with a 12.3 per cent majority, would not concede defeat on Saturday due to the postal and pre-poll voting yet to be done.

In Sydney's south, former school teacher Simon Earle is neck and neck with Liberal incumbent Eleni Petinos in Miranda.

But it won't be an easy grab for Labor — Miranda is a natural Liberal electorate that generally only falls to Labor at landslide elections.

Labor is well positioned in Ryde with another school teacher, Lyndal Howison, putting up a strong fight.

This seat was always going to be a challenge for the Liberals to keep due to the retirement of Victor Dominello, who held the seat for almost 15 years.

There have only been two Liberal MPs for Ryde in the past half century.

Labor may also have a chance in Kiama on the south coast, which was in the spotlight during the campaign.

Incumbent Gareth Ward ran as an independent after the Liberals suspended him last year after being charged with historic sexual assault offences.

He has strenuously denied the allegations and the votes so far show he's still popular within the electorate.

But former journalist Katelin McInerney is surfing a huge Labor swing in Kiama.

This could be a by-product of the 2022 federal election, where Labor retained the south coast seats of Gilmore, Eden-Monaro and Whitlam.

What if Labor doesn't get a majority?

This result would force the Minns government to rely on the support of the crossbench to pass legislation.

The crossbench contains members of parliament who aren't part of the Coalition or Labor.

This would likely mean Labor has to negotiate with Sydney independent 'kingmaker' Alex Greenwich, who will be seeking to cut a deal with Labor on cashless gaming cards.

Incoming premier Chris Minns said the results in some parts of the state were a pleasant surprise. (ABC News: Harriet Tatham)

While the Coalition committed to making pokies cashless by 2028, Labor has only committed to a trial of 500 machines from July.

Mr Greenwich told the ABC on election night he was committed to using his position to making New South Wales the first place in Australia with mandatory gaming cards.

"I’m going to push this reform and I’m going to get it through; I passed five private members bill in the last parliament," he said.

The Greens have retained Newtown and Ballina and look set to keep Balmain.

If Labor needs their support it will be conditional on more investment in social housing as well as the mandatory cashless gaming card.

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