An analysis of cases by local government area shows NSW is seeing some local success in suppressing Covid-19, despite the overall trend in rising cases in the state.
But data from NSW Health shows the virus is spreading into new areas, such as Newcastle and some regions. This wider geographic spread, as well as new cases in metropolitan areas, continues to drive the exponential growth in cases at state level:
In some metropolitan LGAs, particularly those which have had stricter lockdown conditions for longer, the moving average of case numbers suggests there has been some success in slowing growth to the point where cases have plateaued, or even declined.
These trends were noted by Gladys Berejiklian on Wednesday, highlighting the trend in Fairfield and Canterbury-Bankstown.
“We are starting to see a decline, so that intensive work we have been doing is starting to have effect, and we are asking the community to keep going, stick to the rules,” the premier said.
“In Canterbury-Bankstown the cases are still high but we are seeing that trend and we know that the intensified efforts are starting to bear fruit.”
Fairfield and Canterbury-Bankstown were both among the earliest LGAs to have stricter lockdown conditions applied, and Fairfield also had mandatory testing for people who travel outside the area for work.
Here you can see a chart for all the LGAs that have had at least five cases in the past 30 days. Each chart shows the seven-day rolling average of new cases over time, and you can use the “Show max scale” button to rescale each chart individually, to better compare trajectories, or to scale charts by the overall maximum number of cases:
This map also uses the trend in cases over time, and shows the areas that have had stricter lockdown conditions. You can zoom out to show all of NSW, or toggle between circles sized by case numbers and LGA shading:
Prof Tony Blakely, an epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, told news.com.au that the trend at the LGA level was to be expected given the tighter conditions.
“In those LGAs with very tight restrictions, numbers should turn and go down,” he said.
“But the virus will leak out elsewhere, and rates will start to go up in LGAs with lesser restrictions – which then go into harder restrictions, and the virus goes off somewhere else to cause problems.
“If the strategy now – as I suspect it is, and may be the best strategy – is to ‘bridge over’ to October or November when the vaccine coverage is higher, then tightening restrictions where rates are high is appropriate.”
These graphics will be updated daily over the course of the NSW outbreak.
