It gets so dark before the dawn. Staring down the barrel of a 10th State of Origin series loss in 11 seasons, the Blues must barely be able to see the hand in front of their face, the one folding into a fist and approaching at pace. It’s so dark, in fact, that tonight the Blues must journey into Brisbane, where the welcome mats have been brought inside, and beat the Maroons in order to stay alive in a series that has only just begun but is now a mere 80 minutes from being over.
Considering how dominant Queensland have been these past 11 years – a dominance underlined so ruthlessly in last year’s 52-6 win in the decider at Suncorp Stadium – it’s getting to the stage where NSW have started to have much in common with basketball’s hapless Washington Generals, a team whose raison d’être was to be the Harlem Globetrotters’ sacrificial lambs during their exhibition matches. How often can NSW wind up under the heel of Queensland’s boot before they start to believe they belong there?
Come to think of it, how often can NSW continue to come off second best before (sacrilege alert!) Origin becomes so predictable it verges on boring? Ratings are still excellent, which is, in part, a credit to the good people of NSW and their capacity for punishment, but how much longer can they resist the urge to chuck it in and watch Netflix instead?
If avoiding negative thoughts is one of the biggest challenges facing NSW tonight, the other is scoring enough points to win the match, something that will, on past evidence, require a more expansive game than NSW have been willing to play for some time. And this despite the fact their tactic to win by attritional means so rarely bearing fruit.
In game one in Sydney, for example, Laurie Daley stuck to his pre-game admission that NSW would be conservative in approach. Yet, while NSW did an exceptional job in keeping Kevin Walters’ Queensland to just six points through a single converted try, still they lost, and a massive opportunity to start the series on the front foot went begging. Similarly, in last year’s opener, they restricted Queensland to just 11. Again, they fell short.
Of course to chance their arm tonight, or any other night, opens themselves up to counter attack. And it’s at home where Queensland and are most inclined to give themselves a long leash; a fact NSW were reminded of on Tuesday when, during a training run at Suncorp, the big screens played a compilation of great Maroons tries to make them feel at home. There would have been much to choose from.
Over the past 10 matches at the ground the Maroons have scored 269 points to the Blues’ 122. This puts NSW in a bind. On the one hand it suggests Daley’s team should play it safe in attack, minimise the risk of turning the ball over, and win on the back of their defence. But, again, how has this worked out for them in the past? Do the Blues really have much left to lose by throwing a little caution to the wind?
Of course much relies on the platform their forwards establish but NSW do not have to play one-out football, to stick stubbornly to their structures. Players like Andrew Fifita (on his day) and Aaron Woods can offload in traffic, fullback Matt Moylan can be a creative force and should be more relaxed after an Origin under his belt, while newcomers like Jack Bird – who’s a good addition to the interchange bench – will at least have Queensland guessing. So will centre Dylan Walker, it has to be said, but then again he might have NSW guessing too. Considering his club form his selection remains a mystery but, to put a positive spin on it, he will be determined to throw eggs in his critics’ faces.
Adding to the pressure NSW must be feeling is the thought that a loss will heap further pressure on the organisation from the top down. Selectors like Bob Fulton will, and should, be under immense pressure, as will Daley. Moreover, the claims of been-there-lost-that stalwarts like Paul Gallen, Greg Bird, James Tamou, and Robbie Farah will look decidedly skinny (bearing in mind Gallen is set to retire from Origin after game three and I can’t imagine he’ll be denied a farewell Origin in Sydney).
A dead rubber game three could be the perfect time to start afresh, to blood players not covered in scar tissue from one series defeat after another. Maybe then players like Bryce Cartwright, James Tedesco and James Roberts will be given a jersey.
But here I am talking about a dead rubber in three weeks’ time when Queensland – unchanged from game one but for the injured Nate Myles being replaced by Jacob Lillyman – have not yet won game two. That’s just the kind of defeatist mindset NSW will simply have to rid themselves of by the time they enter the cauldron tonight seeking a sliver of light.
