Channel Nine’s NRL grand final coverage on Sunday could match the television audience for the AFL decider, or may even exceed it for the first time in 10 years, following building momentum through the rugby league finals and two ideal contenders.
The AFL grand final recorded an average audience of 4.18 million on Channel Seven last Saturday, eclipsing Channel Nine’s State of Origin coverage to become this year’s most-watched program, just as it did last year.
But 2025 might end differently. The number of viewers for the NRL’s two preliminary finals last week – a combined average audience of 5.2 million, up 35% on 2024 – was the largest for any Australian sporting code. While those matches were shared across Fox Sports and free-to-air, live coverage of Sunday’s grand final is exclusive to Channel Nine.
Given Brisbane and Melbourne are competing in the grand final, and many in Sydney are expected to tune in – especially considering the Roosters meet the Broncos in the afternoon’s NRLW decider – some in the television industry are speculating that the sustained dominance of the AFL over the past decade will come to an end.
The NRL grand final has not attracted more viewers than the AFL final since 2015, when the Cowboys beat the Broncos in one of rugby league’s classic matches. That year Hawthorn defeated West Coast in the AFL decider.
Three sports and broadcasting executives, who requested anonymity because they work with the major networks, explained such a result was possible according to recent trends in audience data and Sunday’s combination of teams.
The Broncos are Queensland’s best supported club while the Storm are the only team in Victoria, which is expected to draw interest from the largest nontraditional rugby league market.
The audience for the NRL’s Storm v Panthers grand final last year topped 3.4 million. When the Storm played the Broncos in the 2006 decider, the game attracted an average audience of close to 4 million. That is the second-largest audience in the past two decades, trailing only the 2014 edition between Sydney heavyweights Souths and Canterbury.
One executive said a strong grand final audience will benefit the NRL as it negotiates with potential broadcast partners over its next broadcast deal, due to commence in 2028. “But whether the market can sustain the level of uplift the NRL will be seeking, time will tell,” they said, adding that carving up rights across multiple partners may be needed “to achieve additional value”.
However, another executive suggested potential broadcast partners won’t be particularly swayed by the NRL edging the AFL this year. Rather, all parties understand both codes represent one of the few opportunities for TV networks to attract mass audiences, and deliver consistent returns over 30 or more weeks a year.
“Whether someone gets pipped by 50,000 or 100,000 [average viewers], or whether you look at it from a reach perspective, I’m not sure that the number on Monday morning will make an ounce of difference in terms of the commercial desires from broadcasters and streamers for the products of AFL and or NRL, because they’re both going to have done well,” they said.
After the interest in last Sunday afternoon’s NRL preliminary final, there have been calls to revert the grand final to an afternoon kick-off. The decider has been scheduled for evenings since 2001. The NRL confirmed this week they would have discussions about the timing of the grand final with broadcasters in the next agreement.
The Broncos v Panthers match set a new record as the most-watched single Fox Sports broadcast with 943,000 viewers, alongside 1.76 million viewers on Nine.
Channel Seven has secured the exclusive rights to the Rugby League World Cup in Australia in 2026 for a reported $12m.
