Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm
Friday, 7.55pm, Sydney Football Stadium
The season-ending injury to Billy Slater was supposed to have scuppered any chance the Melbourne Storm had of challenging for the title. It may do so yet but Craig Bellamy’s redoubtable team has, if anything, lifted since The Kid laid down his guns for the year. While Cameron Munster has done a better-than-could-have-been-expected job deputising for Slater at the back Melbourne’s improvement has primarily been one of attitude, and that’s been reflected in their defence; and they finished the season with the second-best defensive record (behind the Roosters). To see them beat the Broncos last week was to be reminded of a boa-constrictor’s pre-dinner ritual. They’ll need that kind of application again on Friday – coupled with exemplary ball security – when they on the minor premiers in Sydney.
The Roosters, as well as a stout defence of their own, have the attacking options of the Hydra: cut off one of their heads and another grows in its place. Like a mutant hillbilly, but worse. Roger-Tuivasa Sheck is in the form of his life, and Michael Jennings, Daniel Tupou and Blake Ferguson have sprouted fangs. Remarkably, the Roosters have shown no sign of missing Jared Waerea-Hargeaves just yet, but perhaps that will need to be revisited if no-one else steps up to cut down Jesse Bromwich, the Storm’s forward leader. Mitchell Pearce has also barely been missed, too, which shows how well James Maloney and rookie Jackson Hastings have been going.
But this is a huge occasion with the prize being a preliminary final so the Storm will send a lot of traffic their way to see if they’re up to the challenge. You’ve got to give the Storm a chance in just their second ever finals match against the Roosters but the Tricolours’ greater attacking threat, which has seen them win their past 12 straight, shows (along with an injury cloud over Cameron Smith) why they are deserved favourites.
Bulldogs v Dragons
Saturday, 5:50pm, ANZ Stadium
They may say they’re confident but St George Illawarra have entered the finals with all the momentum of an empty can being blown across an abandoned industrial estate. Four wins in their last six regular-season games looks OK but a closer inspection of their opponents, and of their slow and derivative form in those matches, shows why few expect them to trouble the Canterbury Bulldogs on Saturday evening.
Some teams play the game like it’s chess; the Dragons play like it’s Guess Who? But then again isn’t there always a “then again” when it comes to finals? The Dragons can, at least, recall beating the Bulldogs this season, a win that came amid their now scarcely-believable six-game period of impregnability. So there’s a hook upon which to hang some hope, but can Paul McGregor find a way to get his team back to that headspace, even now that Gareth Widdop has been ruled out and replaced with a rookie (Drew Hutchison)? So more pressure on Benji Marshall than usual, and he’ll need to dump the rocks out of his kit bag right now leaving only the diamonds.
But perhaps the Bulldogs aren’t as good as their current five-game winning streak suggests. Let’s see: an away win against the ladder-leading Broncos was a season highlight, but what followed were wins against the hardly convincing Titans, a suddenly weary South Sydney, a Knights team bound for the spoon and a Warriors team that had put the cue in the rack weeks earlier. Half Trent Hodkinson is, of course, still out injured and his kicking game has not been replaced, nor his steady hand.
But it’s in the forwards the Bulldogs have an apparent edge (if size beats mobility, that is) and if they bring their best it’s hard to see the Dragons plugging the Kasiano- and Pritchard-sized holes. You could argue, looking at their roster, that St George Illawarra have overachieved this year just by making the finals, but that won’t make losing any easier if it happens. Seeing the Morris twins celebrating in the blue and white of their bitter rivals could haunt Dragons fans for years.
Broncos v Cowboys
Saturday, 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
For most of the season Brisbane and North Queensland were the standout teams and we wondered months ago whether they might end up playing each other in the first ever all-Queensland grand final. The Roosters came home strongly to bypass both teams but Wayne Bennett’s Broncos and Paul Green’s Cowboys have nevertheless shown admirable consistency all season, even considering the Cowboys’ late season wobble (not helped by the loss of Michael Morgan – who, in a big boost for his team, is back for this one) that saw them lose three games in a four-match spread before righting themselves by thumping the Titans last week.
That wobble was a worry, however, as have been their catalogue of slow starts this season, with the Cowboys conceding the first try in 15 of their 24 games (and trailing at half-time in 10 of them). That they’ve won 10 of those 15 demonstrates their ability, and the coolness under pressure of Johnathan Thurston, the game’s best player, but in finals football deficits could prove harder to reel in. So they’ll need to re-set their internal alarms, and from there Thurston, Morgan, Jake Granville, Jason Taumalolo and Matt Scott can give Bennett something to worry about.
The Broncos, by contrast, have been the surprise packet of the season. Nothing should surprise when it comes to a Wayne Bennett team but it’s remarkable how quickly he’s fashioned his squad of what looked like top-six possibilities into a premiership threat. On his return to Red Hill Bennett’s managed to wring more out of stalwarts like Sam Thaiday, Justin Hodges and Corey Parker, while overseeing a successful positional change for Anthony Milford, the continued rise of Ben Hunt, and the resurrection of Adam Blair who, at the Tigers, stumbled and then fell face forward into a pile of cream pies under the weight of his big money transfer from the Storm.
Team two versus team three, southern Queensland versus northern Queensland, Milford and Hunt versus Morgan and Thurston, the prize of a preliminary final on offer; this should be compelling.
Sharks v Rabbitohs
Sunday, 4:10pm, Sydney Football Stadium
Greg Inglis has big shoulders, and he’ll need them on Sunday to carry the dead weight of the Rabbitohs over the line against Cronulla. Inglis’s return from injury for Sunday’s game is about the only ray of sunshine to have been cast over Redfern in three weeks. In that time they’ve been beaten thrice by an aggregate score of 109-30 and lost John Sutton to injury, Issac Luke to stupidity, and now (harshly) George Burgess to petulance.
And on Thursday it was revealed Glenn Stewart has been released after just one season in order to play for Catalans in Super League from next season. Is it just the siren song of bread sticks and brie, or are Souths clearing room for the possible return of Sam Burgess? And might they need to move anyone else on? It’s part of regular business but it can undercut the business of winning football games.
Souths fans will be desperate for Inglis’ return (is he really 100%?) to trigger a change of attitude and fortune. For all Souths’ absentees and recent troubles they’ve a fine team still, though their bench looks skinny enough for the pages of Vogue. On paper they are good enough to win but that will require recapturing an elusive bunny that was last seen cresting a distant hill.
Cronulla, by contrast, are at full strength (with Andrew and David Fifita back from exile), though they must be smarting at losing to Manly last week and blowing their chance to go fourth. Still, all in all, it’s been a pretty good season for the Sharks, though what does it say about a team that finishes as high as sixth but still has a negative for and against? Casting the eye over Cronulla’s results this season there have been few runaway wins or losses, so to put a positive spin on that -7 aggregate it shows that Cronulla are scrappers (no surprise with players like Paul Gallen, Mick Ennis, Luke Lewis on board) and they’re in it to win it even when they don’t. Still, the Sharks will need to step up a gear in their quest to win that elusive first premiership. The Sharks backs, in particular, need to be more than pedestrian. Easy enough for the dynamic Valentine Holmes, and the mercurial Ben Barba (a good threat to have on the bench), but more of a challenge for half Jeff Robson who’s not a big threat to the line and has only made five try assists this season. More from him would take pressure off Ennis and youthful five-eighth Jack Bird who’s shown remarkable poise this season but could be tested by his first finals series. On form the Sharks should win.
