Ireland could return to lockdown for three weeks if cases spike to over 400 per day over Christmas.
The National Public Health Emergency Team has warned government that a “major increase” in socialisation could see 450 infection cases daily being diagnosed before the end of the month.
Taoiseach Micháel Martin has said he does not anticipate new restrictions before the festive period and added that this guide threshold figure was “very arbitrary.”
In a letter to government last week, NPHET claimed that it would be possible to suppress the spread of the virus with a 21 day intervention, but only if it begins as case numbers near 400 a day.
The Taoiseach said the government was not just watching the figures on new cases but also the level of hospital admissions, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions and the number of deaths when considering what restrictions to impose.
He pointed out the State was performing the best in the EU on the seven-day average of new cases.
The Taoiseach said: “We want to stay in that position, so we won’t be slow to react, but we don’t anticipate having to do it before Christmas.”
The current five-day R or reproduction number currently stands at 295.
NPHET warned Health Minister Stephen Donnelly that a notable increase in socialising and the diversity of contacts over the festive period could “lead to much higher levels of viral transmission than have been seen to date”.
The emergency team’s modelling shows that if the R number, which estimates how quickly the disease is spreading through the population, grows to 2.0 from December 22 to January 6, between 300 and 450 cases per day could be seen by New Year’s Day, and 800 to 1,200 per day by the second week of January.
They also warn about the impact of an increased caseload on curtailing the spread of the virus due to “resource constraints”.
The letter adds that there will be a serial testing programme for healthcare workers in acute settings put in place in early January, similar those in place for nursing homes and meat factories.
On December 1, the country moved from Level 5 lockdown to Level 3 restrictions as non-essential retail and other public amenities being reinstated.
Household visits remain restricted until December 18.
