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Irish Mirror
Irish Mirror
National
Marita Moloney

NPHET's Philip Nolan warns of 'uncertain and dangerous' weeks ahead as Covid cases continue to surge

One of the country's most prominent public health officials has issued a stark warning about the surge in Delta cases in Ireland.

Professor Philip Nolan said that the situation with Covid-19 in the weeks ahead "remains uncertain and dangerous" despite the vaccination rollout continuing apace.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) confirmed on Thursday that 1,189 new cases of the virus had been reported.

Meanwhile, more than 5.3 million vaccine doses have been administered here to date, with 66% of adults now fully vaccinated and 80% partially inoculated.

Professor Nolan, who is the Chair of NPHET's Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, urged people to avail of their jabs and to exercise caution to prevent transmission of the disease.

He explained that as case numbers continue to increase, this will translate "into an as-yet-unknown level of severe disease and mortality over the next two to four weeks.

"We know from models and international data that it will be much less than before vaccination, but it remains uncertain and dangerous," he said in a thread on Twitter.

"The rate of growth is very concerning, about 6% per day; if this continues case numbers will double every 12 days, building up a very large force of infection and burden of disease.

Professor Philip Nolan urged people to "take every precaution to prevent transmission" of Covid-19. (Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin)

"We need to be exceptionally careful in the coming weeks."

The modelling expert stated that while incidence rates vary across the country, they are rising in every county nationwide.

The number of hospital admissions is also worrying, he added, in line with projections made by NPHET.

Professor Nolan said: "The numbers in hospital and ICU continue to trend upwards, and we are currently seeing about 20 to 25 admissions per 1000 cases, as expected from our models and the international data.

"Incidence continues to rise rapidly in those aged 16 to 35 years. Incidence in children aged 12 years and under remains relatively low.

"We are starting to see cases in those aged 65 years and older, a group where a few weeks back the infection was almost eliminated."

He urged people to "take every precaution to prevent transmission" of Covid-19 as "we try to get on with our lives in the coming weeks".

"Get your vaccine and wait until it is fully effective," he said.

"Stay home if symptomatic, keep your distance when out, wear a mask when you need to get close or mix with strangers, practice good respiratory hygiene, sanitise hands, ventilate spaces, and avoid crowding, indoors or outdoors.."

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