A senior member of NPHET has issued a stark warning over a wave of Covid-19 infections that will "break through" the protection offered by vaccines.
Professor Philip Nolan said that transmission of the virus needs to be limited in order to reduce the risk of "dangerous infections" among older and vulnerable people.
The Chair of NPHET's Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group explained that a wave of infections in young people "will cause severe illness and long-term complications in a sizeable minority".
These cases will also "break through the protection of vaccination to cause dangerous infections in older and vulnerable people", he cautioned.
It comes as 1,071 cases of coronavirus were confirmed in Ireland yesterday, with the country's 14-day incidence rate now the highest it’s been since February 24 at 231 per 100,000 of the population.
The five-day average is 1,159 cases per day, the highest it’s been since February 2.
Professor Nolan detailed the data he is seeing relating to the virus and warned the rise in cases is similar if not more severe than the early part of previous waves.
"The data are saying one thing: be very cautious faced with the delta variant. We are seeing a very steep rise in cases, comparable to or steeper than the early part of previous waves," he said in a thread on Twitter.
"This will not translate into severe disease and mortality in the same way as before, but numbers in hospital are rising: 101 this morning.
"The ratio of admissions to cases is 16 admissions per 1,000 cases, overall we are tracking 15-25 admissions per 1,000 cases."
He added that infection numbers are usually lower on Sundays and in the early days of the week, and that the next few days will be "an important indicator" of the severity of the virus.
"Growth rate is currently 5-7% per day, which would give a doubling time of 10-15 days; these estimates are quite unstable given the very rapid increase in cases in the last few days," Professor Nolan continued.
"While cases are concentrated in older teenagers and younger adults, we are beginning to see an increase in incidence across other age groups, including those aged 65 and older.
"Incidence in those aged 16-29 years is rising rapidly, is higher than we have seen since the end of January 2021, and higher than the October 2020 peak."
The modelling expert stated that while incidence rates vary across the country, most counties have a 7-day incidence "significantly greater than 50% of their 14-day incidence, indicating rapid growth in those counties".
He warned: "We need to limit transmission: a wave of infections in young people will cause severe illness and long-term complications in a sizeable minority, and will break through the protection of vaccination to cause dangerous infections in older and vulnerable people.
"We know what we need to do: support those not yet fully vaccinated to socialise safely outdoors and distanced, and we all need to self-isolate and seek a test if symptomatic, avoid crowds and crowded spaces, and take the basic public health and hygiene precautions."
Professor Nolan's comments followed remarks by the Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan who urged people to exercise caution when meeting others to enjoy the warm weather.
He said: "If you are fully vaccinated, you can have confidence in your vaccine and enjoy socialising and meeting with other vaccinated people indoors, so long as you continue to follow the basic public health precautions.
"If you are waiting to be fully vaccinated, then it is best to continue to socialise outdoors.
"Events like barbecues, meeting in a park or going to the beach can be enjoyed safely once we do our best to minimise the risks of transmission – only meet in small groups, wash or sanitise your hands regularly, don’t share utensils and wear a face mask where appropriate. If you are meeting indoors, ensure that the room is well ventilated."
