Have performances been better than results would suggest so far this season at Nottingham Forest?
The first 13 games have been a bumpy ride and Forest sit 20th in the Championship under new boss Chris Hughton with only 12 points on the board.
Even in this tightly-squeezed division that already means 11 points adrift of the top six - but only three points and a chunk of goal difference above the relegation zone.
But the data analysts at infogol who study every match in minute detail, reckon that Forest should probably be seventh on the balance of probability, taking every action during every game into account and looking at likelihoods and chance.
It's Forest who are the team who are most out kilter between what's 'deserved' and what's happened - 13 places away.
From the attacking positions they have got themselves into, they should be expected to have scored 19 times rather than nine, which is the main reason for the disparity.
Brentford, in ninth in reality, and Blackburn Rovers, in 12th, should be a lot higher - first and second, actually - while Reading, in sixth, and Bristol City, in third, should be a lot lower if it was not for over-performing attacks.
If they can work out that, the number crunchers can also try to look into the future and what is the most likely outcome based on all the evidence they have gathered so far.
They forecast Bournemouth and Norwich to go up automatically; Derby County, Coventry and Wycombe Wanderers to go down.
And Forest are there in 17th. Boring but safe.
Infogol analyst Mark Taylor explained in a column for StokeonTrentLive how the team works out their forecasts.
He said: "Faith in the current league table runs from the often heard “the table never lies” to the opposite extreme where it is “too early to call”, but the truth, with a little bit of statistical manipulation, lies somewhere between these two standpoints.
"It’s hugely important to know where your team comes in the league pecking order. Primarily, to manage expectations.
"An overly optimistic projection, based wholly on current league position, may be due to a soft early schedule and a liberal dose of good fortune. A complacent January status quo then may leave a side exposed to a post-New Year relegation fight when more accomplished opponents are faced and good luck recedes to more usual levels.
"Similarly, a team languishing at the foot of the table may have readily identifiable reasons for the slump in results and have an otherwise a solid foundation to climb the table. They can hold off from hitting the panic button.
"Actual match outcomes define the present league table, but a team’s underlying defensive and attacking process is more influential in deciding the direction a side is going and this can greatly inform any major policy decisions in the upcoming months.
"Evaluating a team’s overall worth requires a large body of performance related evidence. Data is drawn not just from the present season, but also earlier matches. But to ensure evolving trends are captured, more recent key performance indicators are given greater weight than those from months ago."
Latest Championship relegation odds
Wycombe 1/5; Derby, Rotherham 13/8; Coventry 2/1; Sheffield Wednesday 3/1; Birmingham 4/1; Huddersfield, Luton 5/1; QPR 11/2; Nottingham Forest 7/1
Latest Championship promotion odds
Bournemouth 8/11; Norwich 4/5; Brentford, Watford 13/8; Swansea 7/2; Blackburn 4/1; Middlesbrough 9/2; Stoke 5/1; Bristol City, Reading 9/1
