Some time in the next few months -- and possibly sooner than later -- laws will be signed and promulgated to allow the production and sale of marijuana for medical purposes. There is far more speculation than hard facts about what will then occur. There is proper optimism that supervised use of cannabis in certain cases will ease or even cure patients' problems. But the government seems blithely unprepared and unconcerned about what will happen next.
It's no mystery. Numerous provinces and countries have witnessed the inevitable. A narrow law legitimising cannabis as a prescription medicine has occurred so many times, in so many places, that there are no longer any unknown consequences. Such a law will directly affect and satisfy a relative handful of Thai people, with specific problems and symptoms. But it will leave a huge demand unsatisfied.
In the beginning, patients and sufferers not covered by the narrow legislation will demand inclusion. This demand will be met, without doubt, in two ways. On the one hand, the marijuana black market will prosper. On the other, unscrupulous and/or sympathetic doctors will start to write borderline or even fake prescriptions for patients willing to pay.
In the US state of Colorado, attempts to limit medical marijuana failed to the point that more than 90% of licensed patients were, in effect, using the drug recreationally to "cure" invented pains. Colorado's feeble solution after five years of such abuse was to legalise open use of recreational marijuana by everyone, everywhere.
Cries for full legalisation have been raised for years in Thailand. Underground but influential publications and so-called discussion groups plump for open farming and sales. There is no longer doubt that medical marijuana is a gateway to legalisation. In truth, heavily regulated use of specialised medical marijuana for a small number of patients is not really a dream so much as it is a lie. Last October, the highest voice in the country spoke out. So long as he is prime minister, said Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, there will never be legalised recreational weed in Thailand. The country is still struggling to deal with drug problems and "this is not the time to allow people to smoke pot and laugh all day."
Indeed the prime minister's policy is to do what every prime minister has done since the bad old days of Thanom Kittikachorn -- more of the "war on drugs". The inability of government to deal with this is one of the top national security problems. Drug dealers and traffickers have won the war on drugs. Gen Prayut's stubborn insistence that just a little more pressure will turn the tide is wrong.
It also is folly to equate marijuana with amphetamine-like stimulants (MLS) and opioids like heroin and fentanyl, which are real drug problems. Such statements mean Gen Prayut and his government are not even facing the actual difficulties of marijuana. The regime seems unprepared to deal with inevitable increases in use, and how to deal with resulting problems such as, say, seriously impaired drivers who have not had a sip of alcohol.
Even a small opening such as legalised medical marijuana will bring changes. Any forward-looking government policy must consider a comprehensive reform of drug laws. Big business is salivating at potential use and eventual control of drugs. Last week, the world's biggest brewer, Anheuser-Busch InBev, announced it was "researching" infusing marijuana into America's best-selling beer, Budweiser. Labatt Brewing of Canada, where marijuana is legal, is part of this plan.
Government spokesman Buddhipongse Punnakanta believes medical marijuana can be easily controlled. He says the new law will have a five-year limit and thus be easily reversed. By every experience in every other country, he is wrong. By failing to realistically deal with known results, the government is setting up problems and possible failure.
