The Northern Irish blog Slugger O'Toole says things are looking very bad for the Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble, who is defending Upper Bann against a strong DUP challenge from a gospel-singing meat wholesaler.
The Rev Ian Paisley's party only needs a small swing to oust Mr Trimble, who shared the Nobel peace prize for his contribution to the Good Friday agreement. Mr Trimble's standing in the Unionist community has suffered greatly since the Northern Irish assembly was suspended, however, and the DUP are aching to bury his more conciliatory and moderate breed of unionism in favour of taking a firmer line with Sinn Fein. Rev Paisley has just boosted his own majority in Antrim North. The Upper Bann result is expected at around 7.30pm tonight.
If he does lose, Mr Trimble will indeed be mortified to observe that his Sinn Fein counterpart Gerry Adams has kept his West Belfast seat with an even bigger (70.1%) share of the vote.
Expect a triumphant and defiant speech from Rev Paisley tonight as he denounces the "traitorous" UUP. Should the assembly ever reconvene, he will consider the post of first minister rightfully his.
