The last time Norwich City won at Wembley – beating Sunderland in the 1985 Milk Cup final – they collected just over £80,000. On Monday, even if the Championship play-off final is technically just to decide who finishes third in the second tier, the financial stakes are much higher. Pick any number from £120m upwards and you will be close to guessing the value of promotion to the Premier League.
For Norwich, a rapid return to the top-flight could make last season’s relegation seem but an embarrassing blip. Lose at Wembley, however, and the club will risk falling prey to the sort of undertow that their opponents on Monday , Middlesbrough, know all too well. It has taken the Teessiders six seasons to be this close to regaining the Premier League status that they lost on a painful day in 2009 when, by the by, Newcastle United also went down and Hull City survived.
You can always tell a big match by how eagerly fans look for omens and how earnestly each manager insists the other team are the favourites. Middlesbrough’s Aitor Karanka and Norwich’s Alex Neil have both been talking up their underdog status with Karanka pointing out that Norwich still have most of the players who competed for three seasons in the top-flight before last year’s relegation, and Neil noting that Middlesbrough won the league meetings between the sides this season. Those matches ended 4-0 and 1-0 which, nervous Norwich fans have observed, were the same scores by which Birmingham City beat Norwich before beating them again in the 2002 play-off final at Cardiff, their only previous appearance in this event.
Monday’s match has been widely billed as a meeting between Middlesbrough’s mean defence – which conceded fewer goals than any other side in the Championship – and Norwich’s potent attack, with only the two automatically promoted sides, Bournemouth and Watford, scoring more prolifically. But that is something of a caricature, even if the last encounter between the pair did pan out like that, with Middlesbrough benefitting from an early own goal at Carrow Road in April and then clinging on to their lead for the rest of the game.
Starting Wes Hoolahan and Nathan Redmond would be a declaration of real attacking intent from Neil but it should not be overlooked that he has also improved them defensively since taking charge in January. The rehabilitation of Sébastien Bassong has been crucial. The centre-back followed up a bad season in the Premier League with a poor start to this campaign and he was sent to Watford on loan before Neil restored his confidence and re-integrated him to the Norwich defence, where his partnership with Russell Martin has helped keep eight clean sheets in their last 20 matches.
The final is likely to be very closely contested. No wonder Neil, whose Hamilton Academical side never missed in shootouts and won promotion from the Scottish Championship to the Scottish Premier League this time last year, has had his players practising penalties.
