While more than 50% of Northern Territory voters have cast their ballot ahead of Saturday’s poll, there could be record-low turnout in some remote areas, with election officials worried about a growing “participation divide”.
Saturday’s poll is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections in the NT for years, despite 53% of the territory’s 141,225 potential ballots being cast by Friday evening, either early or in the mail.
The answer as to who’ll win the first state or territory election conducted during the coronavirus pandemic could lie in the envelopes – but until they are opened people have turned to Burt the psychic croc.
He has made his pick, as he does every election, this year choosing to chomp on a piece of chicken attached to a picture of the Country Liberal Party opposition leader, Lia Finocchiaro, a 35-year-old lawyer.
Although the poll is being overshadowed by the coronavirus crisis, systemic problems still plague the territory, and the current Labor government, which swept to power in a landslide four years ago, isn’t guaranteed to return to office – although that’s the most likely outcome.
Prof Rolf Gerritsen, from Charles Darwin University’s Northern Institute, expects Labor to win 11 to 14 seats on Saturday with 13 needed for a majority.
He said it was possible a result wouldn’t be known on Saturday night although, when pushed, he told Guardian Australian “I think Labor will be returned” with Michael Gunner remaining chief minister.
Low voter turnout in remote communities threatens to widen the voting gap between non-Indigenous and Indigenous residents, the urban and the rural, the rich and the poor.
“The division of Arafura will again fail to reach a turnout of just 50% and a number of other remote divisions will likely be just over 50%,” the head of the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, Iain Loganathan, said, citing increasing voter disengagement.
“It would be easy to blame the circumstances that have occurred as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic for the low turnout. But in reality, remote turnout in the territory has been an issue for decades.”
While urban areas have had their mailing addresses automatically updated, Loganathan said “that system does not operate in areas where there is no postal delivery to the street address”.
For the chief minister and the CLP leader, Finocchiaro, the picture is complicated by the emergence of a genuine third party option, the new Territory Alliance.
Led by the former CLP chief minister, Terry Mills, and less than a year old, the Territory Alliance made the bold announcement it would ban fracking if it won the election.
Fine margins are set to decide the weekend’s contest, and in a sign of the fractious mathematics, the TA actually has more seats in parliament than the official opposition.
The record early vote, combined with the expected low turnout, and the already tiny populations of each seat, means a few votes either way could sway the result. The territory itself has 25 seats for only 141,225 electors – the equivalent of 1.5 federal seats.
Add to that a third party, and many are tipping a hung parliament, with a minority Labor government or a CLP-Territory Alliance coalition being sworn in.
The Northern Territory News, which published its editorial endorsement on Friday, told readers “Labor’s four-year reign has been a disappointment”.
The territory’s debt was a particular concern for the paper, which pointed out that Gunner had promised, when elected in 2016, a reduction of debt to $3bn by 2019-20. Debt will hit $8.2bn next year.
The paper did concede Gunner’s handling of the pandemic “deserves credit” but concluded “he and his government have to be marked on their entire term of office”.
Gunner told reporters on Friday the low turnout was an issue, saying “we want people in remote areas to have their voice counted and make sure their issues are heard”.
The chief minister, who frequently starts press conferences by calling the NT the “safest place in the country”, has made his handling of the coronavirus crisis the focus of the campaign.
The NT has only had 34 cases of Covid-19 and all have recovered. There have been no new cases since 31 July. The territory’s border is technically open, but if you are from a currently declared hotspot (which includes all of Victoria and all of Sydney) you must quarantine at your own expense for 14 days.
“We’ve done everything to save your life and your job,” Gunner said in his final pitch to voters on Friday. “Who do you choose to steer the territory through the coronavirus crisis? Who do you trust to make the hard decisions?”
After safety, the most-heard soundbites have been about “restarting the economy” and making the territory “the comeback capital of Australia” once the virus is under control.
Finocchiaro has hammered Gunner on the economy, pointing out in a leader’s debate earlier this week that the NT was “currently borrowing $4m a day to keep the lights on and spending $1.1m a day paying interest on the debt”.
Finocchiaro, who voted early like much of the territory, would become the first female chief minister from the CLP if it wins on Saturday.
For the Territory Alliance, which styles itself as a grassroots alternative to the major parties, the election will be the first test since the party was founded in November.
In March, Mills poached two independent MPs, the former Labor member Jeff Collins and the former CLP member Robyn Lambley to bolster the alliance’s ranks and make the unlikely trio the largest opposition party by number if not by name.
Mills, who was previously pro-fracking, announced in June that the party would ban it if elected – contrary to the policy of both Labor and the CLP.
