Northern Ireland was the only region of the UK to record an annual increase in average house prices in June, according to the latest report from building society Nationwide.
Its widely-watched house price index showed the cost of a property increased by 0.7% last month compared to June 2022 while all other 11 UK regions saw prices fall by as much as 4.7%.
The move confirms evidence in other recent house price surveys that Northern Ireland’s residential market is proving strong in the face of a raft of pressures from soaring inflation, rising interest rates and jitters around the UK economy.
Affordability has become an increasing focus for market watchers as many fixed rate deals, struck when interest rates were low, come to an end and borrowers are faced with quotes from mortgage providers at the higher interest rates faced today.
However, a lack of new supply coming on to the market – in the form of newly build houses and resale properties – has provided support for prices in Northern Ireland.
Annual house price growth across the UK averaged -3.5% in June, slightly higher than May’s 3.4%, Robert Gardiner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said, adding that borrowing costs show no sign of easing in the short term.
“Longer term interest rates, which underpin mortgage pricing, have increased sharply in recent months, in response to data indicating that underlying inflation in the UK economy is not moderating as fast as expected,” he said. “This has prompted investors to expect the Bank of England to increase its policy rate further and for it to remain higher for longer.”
Across the UK, East Anglia recorded the largest annual house price fall at 4.7%. All English regions saw a slowing in the annual rate of change compared with last quarter. London saw a 4.3% year-on-year decline, while the surrounding Outer Metropolitan region saw a 2.9% fall.
Across northern England overall (which comprises North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands), prices were down 2.7% compared with Q2 2022. The North West was the weakest performing northern region, with prices down 4.1% year-on-year. Meanwhile southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) saw a 3.8% decline.
Scotland saw a slight improvement in the annual rate of change to -1.5%, from -3.1% last quarter. Meanwhile Wales saw a further slowing in annual house price growth from -0.7% to -1.7%.
Mr Gardiner said the market faces considerable headwinds in the near term as house prices remain high relative to earnings and deposit requirements climb. However, he said a “soft landing” is still possible provided the broader economy puts in a more healthy performance as Nationwide expects.
