Things will never be the same. Or at least you wouldn’t expect them to be. Why should they? Why should Stuart Lancaster ever go back to the crystal ball he needed when selecting his autumn elite in high summer?
Look at the evidence of this season. Day one saw Northampton romp past Gloucester. A week later Saracens crushed Harlequins, while Northampton, the champions, looked anything but at Wasps. And last weekend? Something potentially seismic happened.
Leicester have lost heavily before, but nothing like this in modern times. To see the side beaten to nil and concede 45 points at Bath would have had England’s head coach scratching his head, just like the rest of us. Already he has bucketloads of evidence before sitting down in three weeks to cross the Ts and dot the Is on his elite squad to play New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and Samoa before Christmas. And it’s not over. Lancaster has three more weeks of league rugby and one of European competition to pore over.
By 22 October, the day the squad will be named, the head coach’s video library will be bulging, though I suspect this weekend’s footage will be close to taking pride of place, not just because so many potential England players go head to head, but because of pure rugby fascination.
Leicester versus London Irish – a side who have already caused nervous flutters with Harlequins and Saracens this season – will indicate whether the multiple champions still have the wherewithal to bounce back, while Northampton versus Bath could and possibly should show where the potential lies in the Premiership.
First: Leicester. More than anything I was surprised by their attitude in adversity. Last Monday Worcester’s A side managed to put 47 points past them by half-time, but then Brett Deacon – who runs their academy – revved up his men, circled the wagons and told them what Leicester are all about.
However, we faced a totally different beast in the second half. That didn’t happen at the Rec last Saturday. Rather than trying to physically impose themselves – the Tigers way – Leicester continued to chuck the ball around, were knocked backwards and the score built and built. If Bath were good, I’m not sure how good, because Leicester were poor. On Saturdayafternoon at Franklin’s Gardens will almost certainly provide a truer guide to the Premiership pecking order.
It’s fascinating because the champions, I suspect under the influence of the former Wasp fly-half Alex King, who arrived in Northampton from Clermont Auvergne, are evolving. Roll back not so long ago and they were pretty much a blunt instrument; much happier running over defences rather than around them.
Now they have built, much as Clermont did, on that physicality. There are still plenty of big boys around – George North, Luther Burrell in the backs, Calum Clark, Samu Manoa, Courtney Lawes, Salesi Ma’afu and others in the forwards – but now there is the desire to offload in the tackle, rather than die with the ball, recycle, then go again and again until the defence withers under the pressure. The physicality is still there but now it comes with a few measures of ambition.It may not be the best of examples, but take the game against Newcastle last Sunday. After 26 minutes, Northampton’s ambition had reaped 28 points. The first try came to a more than promising young fly-half – Will Hooley – on four minutes; the Newcastle No8 Ally Hogg was in the sin-bin within six minutes, a victim of the pressure; then Northampton showed what they are all about this season, offloading the length of the pitch, North and Manoa flipping the ball off the floor, before Dylan Hartley went over.
That move provided pretty compelling evidence that the champions are evolving once again. But that was against Newcastle. Offloading requires control in the tackle. It’s no good just flinging the ball out of contact, which Leicester did at the Rec. Passes have to be controlled even if they are moving only a couple of feet and that takes time and practice. If Northampton can continue to be smooth on Saturday, I suspect Bath will have a hard day at the office. However, if Jim Mallinder’s side get ragged, then watch out.
Last Saturday Bath scored three tries from under their own posts, the best from Kyle Eastmond, and it was his partnership with George Ford which will have impressed Lancaster and will worry Mallinder. There have been issues regarding Ford, the 21-year-old fly-half, in pressure games but with Eastmond as an alternative first receiver, Bath had a release valve whenever Leicester went after Ford.
Of course, it wasn’t just those two. Dave Attwood, looking to nail down one of the locking spots in Lancaster’s elite, looked kilos lighter; the hooker Rob Webber, now so much more accurate with the bread and butter work in the lineout, will be a true test for Hartley; while Davey Wilson, now a ball-playing No3 as well as a hard-scrummaging tighthead, will put Alex Corbisiero through his paces.
Mouthwatering. And Bath versus Saracens the following week. Why would Lancaster ever go back to taking a selectorial punt in the dark when he has proper evidence to work on?
