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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Matthew Weaver (now); Lucy Campbell (earlier)

North Shropshire: PM in ‘last chance saloon’, says Ruth Davidson, as new Christmas party claims emerge – as it happened

This live blog is now closing. For updates on the global coronavirus situation, please follow the global Covid live blog.

Case to 'step back'

The FT’s Sebastian Payne has also been told that Simon Case will no longer lead the Christmas party investigation.

A statement on Case’s replacement is expected this evening.

The former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith has called on Johnson to mount a clear-up at No 10.

He told the BBC:

The prime minister needs to show really strongly that he doesn’t just disapprove but is prepared to get rid of people who are breaking those rules.

I want my colleagues to stop playing games.... the party has to get behind him.

Updated

More on Partygate from ITV’s Paul Brand and the prospect now of an external probe:

London mayor Sadiq Khan has called for the Metropolitan police to investigate allegations of Covid rule-breaking at Whitehall parties.

Speaking to ITV Khan said:

I think it’s really important that where allegations of criminality are made, the police investigate.

I’d expect the police to do what they normally do which is to look at the evidence, find the evidence and see whether any crimes have been committed.

Updated

Politico’s Alex Wickham hears further Covid restrictions will be on the agenda at this weekend’s Cobra meeting.

Labour’s Angela Rayner has this:

Henry Dyer from the Insider is told a senior QC could now lead the investigation.

A Conservative MP has said Simon Case should no longer lead the investigation into Whitehall parties. Richard Holden, MP for North West Durham, told Times Radio:

I don’t think it can be the case that he’s investigating something when obviously, there are now questions about that now. So yeah, absolutely, (it) needs to be changed.

He said he had been “as angered as many” by the party allegations as he “was in the place of coming to my grandmother’s funeral with a very small number of people” last year.

So I was as angered as many of my constituents are by the idea that anything untoward has been going on in that area.

And I just literally heard about this latest situation today, which, you know, just sounds unbelievable. So that just needs to get sorted out as soon as.

Updated

Yet more difficult news for the prime minister. The Times has this:

The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

Johnson faces an intensely challenging period. The Omicron wave is breaking over Britain, but his MPs are in open revolt against Covid restrictions; the economic backdrop is deteriorating just as taxes are about to rise, and Simon Case’s inquiry into the rule-breaking parties is yet to report.

As one frontbencher put it: “We’re starting to enter a perfect storm of shitness.”

Read the full report here:

A Cabinet Office source told PA that a quiz was held on 17 December, but insisted it was mostly virtual.

The source said it was “absolutely not a drinks gathering or a party” and that six people who had been working in the department that day took part from their desks.

On whether Simon Case took part, the source said he was not involved in the organisation and did not ask any questions but he was aware it was taking place as he had walked past.

No 10 is expected to issue a statement on the investigation into parties across Whitehall that he was asked to lead by the prime minister.

ITV’s Paul Brand, who secured the video of Downing Street staff laughing about Christmas parties, has this:

The report about Case has prompted yet more ridicule aimed at No 10 over Christmas parties.

Updated

The Sun’s political editor Harry Cole hears this:

The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar reminds us that Number 10 said about Case when he was appointed.

Here’s the i’s Paul Waugh on North Shropshire:

Boris Johnson is famously unembarrassable, but after that shattering defeat at the hands of the Liberal Democrats he does now look seriously isolated, as several of his own MPs are speeding off away from him.

The reasons for the Lib Dem victory are multiple, with voters citing everything from anger over the way the PM tried to bail out Owen Paterson’s misconduct to that video of Allegra Stratton laughing about a No.10 Christmas party.

Add in discontent over poor rural bus and train services, local NHS and ambulance services on their knees and a cost of living squeeze, and it’s easy to see why the electorate felt this was a crisis made in Downing Street.

But while those unforced errors point to the old adage that Johnson is his own worst enemy, what’s different now is that his own backbenchers and Labour and the Lib Dems are rapidly becoming more credible enemies too.

Some MPs gleefully point out that having spent years making life difficult for David Cameron and Theresa May, Johnson is the one on the receiving end of a mutinous mood among backbenchers.

“As you sow, so shall you reap,” one former minister put it to me this week. The hunter is now the quarry and he’s finding it is nowhere near as much fun.

Summary

Here’s a summary of today’s events:

  • Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, tasked with investigating claims of a Christmas party at Downing Street last year, held his own office party the day before, according to multiple reports. The Cabinet Office has dismissed the allegations as untrue.
  • The SNP has called for Case to be removed from the inquiry. The BBC has reported that Case’s role in the investigation is “under consideration.”
  • Boris Johnson is to convene a Cobra meeting about the rise in Omicron cases with the leaders of the devolved administrations . Johnson spoke to Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon about this weekend’s meeting in a call on Friday.
  • The former Scottish Conservatives leader, Ruth Davidson, has warned Johnson that he is “drinking in the last chance saloon” after the Conservatives lost the safe seat of North Shropshire in Thursday’s byelection. She said MPs were “looking for a bit of bloody grip to be exerted.”
  • Johnson said he accepts responsibility for the byelection defeat but defiantly blamed the media for focusing on “politics and politicians” following a string of allegations about Tory sleaze and breaches of lockdown rules. Asked about the Tory MPs who are warning him that he could be removed as leader if he does not get a grip in No 10, Johnson refused to answer on the grounds that it was a question about politics and politicians.
  • The Conservative party co-chair Oliver Dowden has conceded that voters in North Shropshire have given the government “a kicking” by backing the Liberal Democrats. He said: “Voters were fed up and they gave us a kicking. They were fed up with a byelection that was called because of sleaze allegations; they were fed up with all the sort of stories that are going on at the moment.”
  • The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, hailed the byelection result as a “watershed moment” that “offers hope to people around the country that a brighter future is possible”. He added: “Millions of people are fed up with Boris Johnson and his failure to provide leadership throughout the pandemic, and last night the voters of North Shropshire spoke for all of them.”

Updated

Here’s PA’s take on the Case allegations:

Boris Johnson is facing calls to remove cabinet secretary Simon Case from an inquiry into gatherings in government departments during lockdown, after it was alleged parties were held in his own department.

The prime minister asked Case to look into allegations of gatherings held in Downing Street while the public faced challenging measures to stop them from mixing.

The inquiry was then expanded and it was confirmed Case could look at any alleged party if he felt it was relevant.

But the Guido Fawkes website reported on Friday that two Christmas parties were held in Case’s department – the Cabinet Office – in December 2020, when restrictions were in place.

The Scottish National party’s Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, has called for Mr Case to be removed from the investigation and to resign.

Both Johnson and Tory chair Oliver Dowden have said they were sure Case’s investigation would find no wrongdoing.

And Johnson insisted the public was more interested in other matters such as coronavirus, and suggested the media reporting on lockdown-busting parties had caused the Tories to lose the North Shropshire by-election.

The Times reported that one of the parties was held on 17 December – the day before the alleged Christmas party at Downing Street at the centre of the saga.

The newspaper reported that the event was listed in digital calendars as “Christmas party!” and was organised by a private secretary in Case’s team.

A joint investigation by Politico and the Independent claimed Case shared drinks with between 15 and 20 staff at his office and in the waiting room outside the Cabinet Office.

In a statement, the Cabinet Office told Politico and the Independent: “These allegations are categorically untrue.”

Updated

Boris Johnson has spoken to Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and confirmed he will convene a Cobra meeting over the weekend with leaders of the devolved administrations about the rise in Omicron cases.

A readout of the call said:

The prime minister confirmed the UK government will be convening a Cobra meeting over the weekend with counterparts from the devolved administrations to continue discussions.

Updated

Yet more reaction to the revelation that Simon Case, the man investigating Christmas parties in Whitehall last year, attended a gathering of his own.

Fraser Nelson, one of Boris Johnson’s successors as editor of the Spectator, has delivered a scathing verdict on the PM’s reaction to the byelection.

Nelson writes:

I think it would be fair to say that we have heard some self-serving twaddle from him of late and yet this ‘I blame the media’ line was not only hypocritical and sinister: it was downright insulting to the intelligence of the British public. Politicians can sometimes be so consumed with vanity that their very existence – their self-definition, their self-esteem – depends on how they think they are portrayed in the media ...

The moment he decided to criminalise women meeting up for coffee was the moment he lost the right to complain if the press take an interest in No 10’s own rule-breaking. And yes, such stories may distract attention from his skills agenda, his vaccine booster data or tractor production figures. But in our place, what would he be writing about? Would he have led the Spectator on drugs policy, as we did last week – or gone all-out on the hypocrisy in partying No 10?

Since he defended the press in 2007, newspapers sales have probably halved – haemorrhaging power and influence. If voters give him a bloody nose, can he really blame us? As Enoch Powell said: for a politician to blame the press is like a ship’s captain complaining about the sea. Ultimately, as prime minister, he makes the weather. His bungling triggered this byelection. And he should not blame us if he does not like the result.

Updated

The byelection win was down to a “toxic cocktail of local and national issues” according to a Lib Dem campaigner.

Nine days before polls opened, the party was handed extra ammunition through repeated reports about parties at Downing Street in December last year, prompting nationwide anger. “It was like Barnard Castle on steroids,” one Lib Dem campaigner said.

The party went full throttle, promoting a photograph of a Conservative HQ Christmas party, complete with buffet, to North Shropshire voters on Facebook within an hour and a half of it emerging. “Tell them the party is over,” quickly became their tagline.

After his defeat, the Conservative candidate, Neil Shastri-Hurst, said the party would need to “reflect upon the result” and some Tory campaigners have been quick to blame “partygate” for the loss.

Read the full story here:

Updated

The BBC’s Ione Wells has been told that Case’s role as head of the inquiry into Christmas parties is now “under consideration”.

She told BBC News: “I understand that as a result of these fresh allegations that have emerged today, hs position as chair of the investigation into parties at Downing Street last year, is now under consideration.”

New Covid case hit record 93,045

Meanwhile, Covid cases have reached a new daily record for a third day in a row. There were 93,045 new infections reported in the last 24 hours with another 111 deaths recorded.

There’s more on the Covid blog.

Updated

More reaction to the Christmas gathering allegations against Simon Case.

Simon Case 'attended Christmas gathering'

The cabinet secretary, Simon Case, who is investigating Christmas parties last year in Downing Street, attended an “impromptus Christmas drinks gathering” in his office last year, according to Politico and the Independent.

Citing two officials who were present, Politico says Case “shared drinks with a group of 15 to 20 staff at his office and in the waiting room outside at 70 Whitehall in mid-December 2020”.

Guido hears similar.

He quotes Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, as saying:

Boris Johnson as prime minister has set the tone for the civil service and the rest of government.

With each new revelation there is growing evidence of a culture of turning a blind eye to the rules.

Labour made it clear when the investigation was launched that the person in charge should be uncompromised and able to make a fair and independent judgment. These fresh revelations put that into question.

The SNP has called for the Case investigation to be scrapped.

The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar, who has led the way on Christmas party scoops, reckons Case’s position seems “untenable”.

Updated

Even Ryanair are trolling the government.

Hat tip @SomersetChris.

Updated

PA’s Ian Jones puts the swing to the Lib Dems in historical context:

Those backing a “progressive alliance” against the Conservative government have been buoyed by the North Shropshire result.

Last week the Guardian urged Labour supporters to back the Lib Dems in the seat. “Progressives ought to embrace strategic voting with a vengeance next week to weaken Mr Johnson’s position,” it said.

The Labour MP Clive Lewis is encouraged that such voters appear to have heeded this advice.

There are similar sentiments from Best for Britain and Compass thinktanks.

And from the writer Paul Mason:

Updated

The byelection result comes in the midst of the rapidly rising wave of Omicron infections.

The latest figures show another 3,201 infections - almost twice the number of new infections (1,698) announced on Thursday.

Updated

This is Matthew Weaver taking over from Lucy. As preparation for blogging duties I listened to Radio 4’s World at One. On it, the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, said the North Shropshire result had left Johnson in a “very precarious position”.

Kuenssberg explained:

Not just because of this monster defeat in a byelection, but also remember this week huge numbers of backbenchers didn’t back him on a key part of his plans to deal with the Covid pandemic. [And] there was the report from the Electoral Commission around the saga over how he paid for the lavish redecoration of the flat above Downing Street.

There is a difference of opinion inside the Conservative party over whether or not this is a situation that can be recovered. Some MPs believe that it is past saving, and are focusing on when and how making a change at the top would be best conducted. There are however also MPs who believe this is not necessarily a terminal situation. He basically has been in the past a hugely successful campaigner. And if you restore order, you restore structure, you get a tighter grip on the government machine, the regime behind No 10, then there is a possibility of getting things back on track.

In [Boris Johnson’s] interview we heard what is actually one of his stock lines. He said, ‘I take responsibility for everything that happens in the government.’ That’s not the same as the kind of self-reflection that some of his colleagues would like him to do right now.

The question for the next few weeks and months for Downing Street is what is Boris Johnson’s capacity for that kind of self-reflection? And there are many powerful figures in the Conservative party who privately think that he has to change, he has to sharpen up or ship out.

He has had an extraordinary capacity to campaign to deliver a message to sell a notion of a vision to members of the public. To make voters feel good. What we haven’t seen during his time in government is when things go wrong, a permanent decision to really shake things up.

I don’t think you find many people around who are really confident that Boris Johnson is going to dig deep and actually turn this back to something that looks like a normally functioning government that’s capable of getting things done, keeping the promises they made in the election in 2019. That’s the key thing for loads of MPs - there is not much faith about.

Updated

These are from my colleague Peter Walker

That’s all from me, Lucy Campbell, for today. I’ll now be handing over to my colleague Matthew Weaver. Take care and have a lovely weekend!

Humiliation upon humiliation is being piled on the prime minister right now. Could a leadership contest be next, asks Marina Hyde in this week’s column.

An extract reads:

On 2 November, bubbly British premier Boris Johnson was flying back from Cop26 on a private plane, laughing off world-beatingly high Covid transmission rates at a time when light interventions would have reduced them, and nicely set for dinner with mid-Mesozoic influencer Charles Moore at the all-male Garrick Club. At this fateful repast with his former boss, the newspaper columnist who runs Britain cemented a plot to stop Owen Paterson – rule-breaking MP for ultra-safe North Shropshire – from having to serve a mere 30-day suspension from parliament, apparently on the basis that Johnson’s people can do whatever they like.

This morning, North Shropshire has fallen to the Liberal Democrats with the third-biggest swing against the Tories since 1945, with the many, many rule-breaking Christmas parties held last year by Johnson’s people turning out to be a nuclear issue on the doorstep. What can you say? I strongly recommend laughing over spilt milk.

The full column is here: No party could be worth the hangover Boris Johnson is now suffering

Updated

From the BBC’s Andrew Marr, who will present his BBC show for the last time on Sunday

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the treasurer of the 1922 Committee, said this morning it was not the time for a “big blame game” but that Boris Johnson needed to stop the “self-inflicted own goals”.

He told Sky News:

I want him to succeed, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. But in doing that, as one of his seasoned backbenchers, I am asking him to think carefully how he governs the country and avoid these self-inflicted measures.

Following the large Tory rebellion against Covid passports on Tuesday, Clifton-Brown had warned Johnson that a leadership challenge was “on the cards” if he failed to “change his approach”.

Here is the full clip with Boris Johnson’s reaction to the byelection hammering from Sky News’s Sam Coates

Updated

Prime minister 'drinking in last chance saloon', says former Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson

The former Scottish Conservatives leader, Ruth Davidson, told BBC Radio 4’s World at One that the prime minister was “drinking in the last chance saloon” after being “put on warning by his MPs”.

MPs “are looking for him after Christmas to come back with a programme for government to sharpen up the operation at No 10, to stop having all of these own goals and burning political capital”, she said.

MPs were “looking for a bit of bloody grip to be exerted,” Baroness Davidson said, adding that “ if they see that they might hold off, but I mean, I think the prime minister has been put on warning by his MPs”.

When asked if there was a successor to Boris Johnson, she acknowledged “there’s not a natural successor”, but added:

Events that have happened over the last month, month and a half, have allowed this to now be openly talked about at all levels within the party… I would say Rishi Sunak’s doing very well, I’d say Sajid Javid’s doing very well. I would say, having recently been promoted from vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi has done brilliantly and deserves the promotion into cabinet.

You have to have a prime minister that has got a programme for government and has got the grip then has got the staff to be able to execute it and has got the plan for it.

She said MPs she had spoken to were saying “they’re tired of the constant drama coming out of No 10. And actually the No 11 flat as well. And they’re getting it in the neck every time they go back to their constituencies every week.”

So I think what they’re looking for is a more sober prime minister, [who] will cut out the self-inflicted mistakes.

Updated

Boris Johnson has said he accepts responsibility for his party’s crushing defeat in the North Shropshire byelection but also defiantly blamed the media for focusing on “politics and politicians” following a string of allegations about Tory sleaze and breaches of lockdown rules.

He claimed that the biggest problem of the last few weeks was that what “people have been hearing is a litany of stuff about politics and politicians and stuff that isn’t about them and things we can do to make life better”.

He brushed off questions about his personal responsibility for the scandals over how a Tory donor funded his wallpaper in Downing Street and the allegations of parties in Downing Street during lockdown, appearing to blame the media for focusing too much on these issues.

Asked about the Tory MPs who are warning him that he could be removed as leader if he does not get a grip in No 10, Johnson refused to answer on the grounds that it was a question about politics and politicians. He said:

Can I remind you of everything I’ve been saying in this interview? That is exactly the kind of question that breaks the golden rule.

Read more here: Boris Johnson accepts responsibility for North Shropshire byelection mauling

More from polling expert Prof John Curtice, who writes for the Times (paywall) that leave voters in the true blue seat lost faith in Boris Johnson’s ethics and competence.

An extract reads:

In short, this result suggests that the coalition of leave-inclined voters who provided the prime minister with his 80-seat majority in 2019 is now at risk of falling apart.

Indeed, polls undertaken since the “partygate” allegations encircled the prime minister last week suggest that support for the Conservatives is now down by 20 points since 2019 among those who voted leave.

Many of these voters were first-time Conservative supporters whose willingness to stick with the party is perhaps all too easily eroded if their confidence in its ethics and competence are shaken. Of course, a crucial element in the Liberal Democrats’ success was a 12-point drop in the Labour vote, which had previously been second-placed. It looks as though, in a constituency their party had never won, many Labour supporters were all too ready to take the opportunity to give Boris Johnson a bloody nose.

However, the result is also a reminder to Labour that whatever the Conservatives’ current woes, at 39% their own standing in the polls is still no higher than 12 months ago.

North Shropshire suggests that the Liberal Democrats have regained their mantle as the party of byelection protest. But that does not necessarily mean that Labour are, as yet, seen as ready for government.

Updated

It’s been two years since Boris Johnson shattered Labour’s “red wall” of northern seats to secure the Conservative party’s biggest majority since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 victory.

But while the prime minister was lauded by the Tory faithful in the months after that result, and was helped by a successful vaccine programme to weather questions about the government’s handling of the Covid pandemic, a succession of sometimes self-inflicted reversals has put his position in peril.

Read the roundup of the missteps that have undermined the prime minister’s hold on power here: North Shropshire, piggate and partygate put Boris Johnson’s position in peril

Updated

Boris Johnson says he 'accepts the verdict' and takes responsibility for 'very disappointing' result

During a visit to a vaccination centre in Hillingdon, Boris Johnson told reporters it was a “very disappointing” night for his party.

The prime minister said he accepted that the row over Christmas parties in Downing Street during lockdowns last year had “obstructed” the task of informing voters about the government’s agenda, and that over the last few weeks, people had been hearing about a “constant litany of stuff about politicians”, and not enough about their priorities.

He said:

Clearly the vote in North Shropshire is a very disappointing result.

I totally understand people’s frustrations, I hear what the voters are saying in North Shropshire. In all humility, I’ve got to accept that verdict.

I understand that what voters want us as the government to be doing at all times is to focus on them and their priorities.

Asked whether he took personal responsibility for the defeat, he replied:

I do. I think my job is to get over what we’re doing more effectively.

He wouldn’t be drawn on the question of whether he should resign if it was in the interest of the Conservative party, and said he was focusing on the government’s vaccination programme.

What we’re focusing on is getting the job done. I think that is what people would want me to be focused on right now.

Updated

Is the North Shropshire byelection another sign that Brand Boris has passed its sell-by date, asks Patrick Maguire in this morning’s Times Rex Box.

An extract reads:

There is, on some parallel timeline, a universe in which Owen Paterson has just finished his 30-day suspension from the Commons for second jobbing – sorry, selflessly alerting the authorities to the danger of defective ham for the bargain price of £100,000 a year – and the good people of Wem, Whitchurch and Market Drayton spent the last three weeks unbothered by gawping lobby journalists repeating the word “sleaze”.

That you are instead reading about another Liberal Democrat byelection victory, a 34% swing, the seventh biggest in history; a 22,949 Conservative majority turned into a 5,925 majority for the Lib Dems; an 8.5 on Prof Sir John Curtice’s Richter scale; and letters to the 1922 Committee is entirely the fault of Boris Johnson. All of it. Everything. It is a verdict on his leadership and judgment.

For this byelection would not have happened were it not for the unforced, inadvisable and avoidable decision to try – and quite spectacularly fail – to get Paterson off the hook with a series of parliamentary manoeuvres so shameless as to make Richard Nixon look like Nelson Mandela.

It would not have been lost, by the crushed Conservative candidate’s own admission, had No 10 not allowed one Daily Mirror front page on the Christmas party they insisted never was to become a fortnight-long saga of denials, leaks and inquiries.

That, of course, was not the only reason the Lib Dems romped home. Each seat has its own idiosyncrasies, particularly in rural England, and slow ambulance response times, poor transport connections and the impact of Brexit on local farmers were factors here.

But to borrow Jeremy Thorpe’s deadpan response to the question of whether his trial for conspiracy to murder cost him his seat in 1979: “Put it this way ... I don’t think it helped.”

Divining the future from byelection results is always a bit of a fool’s errand. Recent history is pockmarked with famous Liberal and Liberal Democrat victories – Ripon, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley, Christchurch, Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnorshire – overturned with little fanfare at the following general election.

There is an argument – a convincing argument, at that – that all this morning’s result really proves is that the Liberal Democrats know how to run a byelection campaign. Note, too, the fact they pulled this off in a true blue shire seat with few remainers to speak of. Electoral politics appears to have moved on from 2016.

That need not worry Boris Johnson too much yet. What should, though, is how Tory MPs will take it.

You can read the full analysis here (paywall).

Updated

This is from historian Robert Saunders

He is quoting this from Steven Fielding, also a historian, who is wondering whether today’s result could signal better times are ahead for Labour

Updated

The default setting of ‘vote Tory’ has been broken, the Lib Dem leader, Ed Davey, writes for the Guardian. You can read his column here:

Speaking in Oswestry outside The Bailey Head pub after a 25-minute walkabout through the market town in her constituency, Helen Morgan said of her win:

Well, I’m absolutely thrilled, humbled and honoured - and obviously a little bit tired.

She added that voters had been “moving towards” the Liberal Democrats - and away from the Conservatives - “even before the issue with the party, last week”.

We found that people really felt as if they were taken for granted.

Our ambulance services are under pressure, our farming community feels taken for granted. And when we went out and told them that they could have an MP who would listen to them and fight their corner, that message really resonated.

You can’t deny the impact of the party and the news that broke last week, but I think it was moving in our direction before then.

Updated

Here is an insightful thread examining the limitations of what byelections can tell us in terms of wider public opinion from Anthony Wells, a byelection specialist and head of European political and social research at YouGov

Updated

The polling expert Sir John Curtice has described the North Shropshire byelection result as a political earthquake.

If the Richter scale is up to 10, it would register an 8.5, the election expert told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning.

He said that while the result was not quite unprecedented, the precedents are not comfortable for the Tories.

A 34-point swing from the Tories to Lib Dems since 2019 in the seat is comparable only to the Christchurch byelection in 1993 at the end of a parliament that saw the Conservative government fall to the landslide of Tony Blair’s New Labour, he said.

In a sense, two weeks ago, nobody would have seen this coming. Two weeks ago, yes the Conservatives were in trouble - their position in the polls was down to neck-and-neck and they lost 13 points in the Old Bexley by-election.

But [North Shropshire] was not a constituency first of all that at all looked like promising territory for the Liberal Democrats - it voted 60% to Leave - very, very different from Chesham and Amersham... and secondly while the Conservative position had weakened it hadn’t weakened that much.

The Liberal Democrats do look like they have reclaimed their mantle as the by-election party of choice.

Meanwhile, we’re seeing Conservative voters and Leave voters in a true blue constituency taking the opportunity to protest pretty spectacularly about what they think of this current government.

The newly elected North Shropshire MP Helen Morgan has appeared at a victory rally alongside former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron in Oswestry, this morning.

PA reports that after Morgan used a yellow pin to pop a large blue balloon which had “Boris’ Bubble” emblazoned on the side, Farron said:

I don’t know if you realise how many millions of people have woken up this morning feeling a bit of light has broken into the darkness.

But it turns out, if you are incompetent, it turns out if you tell lies, it turns out if you take the people for granted, there is a price to pay.

Democracy and justice is alive and well in Britain and the people of North Shropshire have spoken for the whole of Britain last night.

Helen Morgan and Tim Farron speak at a victory rally in Oswestry, after overturning a majority of nearly 23,000 in a seat that had been Tory since its creation in 1832.
Helen Morgan and Tim Farron speak at a victory rally in Oswestry after overturning a majority of nearly 23,000 in a seat that had been Tory since its creation in 1832. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Frustrated MPs across the Conservative party have little reason to support the prime minister unless he can quickly repair his rift with voters, writes Katy Balls in this week’s column.

Here is an extract:

After a tricky few weeks for Boris Johnson, it is impossible to separate the prime minister from the result. Tory MPs believe he was a key factor on the doorstep. The result points to issues in a general election. While byelections are more vulnerable to protest votes, the North Shropshire vote shows how tactical voting has the potential to wound the Tories at the next election.

There is a particular concern among those MPs in Lib Dem-facing seats, of which there are around 50. But the problem goes further. “If we can’t keep a majority in a true blue seat that voted heavily to leave, where can we?” asks one frustrated Tory MP.

Most immediately, the North Shropshire byelection is a problem for Johnson’s own authority. His MPs have been willing to begrudgingly put up with things they don’t agree with – such as tax rises and Covid restrictions – when they believed Johnson had the support of the public. If they start to see him as the central problem, the calculation will change. Johnson will find it even harder to get his agenda through.

Already Tory MPs from across the party are openly discussing whether he can really lead them into the next election. As the prime minister takes a break over Christmas, he will need to use that time to work out how to regain the support of his party. Otherwise, 2022 will be his most turbulent year yet.

And here is the full column: Tories know Johnson lost them North Shropshire. They may now dispense with him

More from academic Matt Goodwin with (what he calls) a short thread looking at how, almost two years to the day since his emphatic election victory, Boris Johnson’s electorate is beginning to unravel

From the FT’s Jim Pickard

Jonathan Reynolds said the effort Labour put in to campaigning for the North Shropshire seat was proportionate to its chances of winning.

The shadow business secretary told BBC Breakfast:

I think we’re proud of the candidate we ran, I think Ben Wood will be a Labour MP at some stage in future, great talent.

We put the effort into it that was proportionate to our chances of winning, but clearly people have wanted to send a message to the government - they’re fed up with the incompetence, the sleaze, the kind of revelations we’ve seen over the last few weeks.

Oliver Dowden said he was in touch with Boris Johnson this morning. The Tory party chairman told LBC the government had to prove it was “focused on people’s priorities”.

I have been in touch with the prime minister this morning. I’m seeing the prime minister immediately after I’ve done this very extensive news round this morning.

What we must do as a government is demonstrate that we are focused on the people’s priorities and I think what you’ve heard over the past couple of months is a lot of noises off.

That is why, for example, we are focusing, in the middle of this terrible surging Omicron virus, we’re focusing on getting the booster into people’s arms in order to make sure that we can keep some element of normality going on in our lives.

That’s why we’re engaged with the hospitality industry who are facing tremendous challenges right now.

We have to be laser-like focused on the people’s priorities, and that is the message I take from this - that people don’t want all these noises off. They want us focused on their priorities.

These are from James Johnson, a pollster who worked in Downing Street when Theresa May was prime minister

Your hourly reminder, this one’s from the Daily Mail’s John Stevens

This is from Matt Goodwin, an academic specialising in why voters support rightwing populists

The shadow business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, said the result was a “terrible” outcome for the Conservative party.

He told BBC Breakfast:

It’s clearly a terrible result for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party, but I think one that they thoroughly deserve.

He added:

Clearly people have wanted to send a message to the government they’re fed up with the incompetence, the sleaze, the kind of revelations we’ve seen over the last few weeks. And I think the government has to take heed of that.

[At] the minute it feels, to be frank, that this government is not in control of itself, let alone the country. And I think the result last night reflects that.

Updated

Oliver Dowden said he is “confident” that an inquiry into alleged Covid rule-busting parties will “vindicate” Boris Johnson’s assertion that no restrictions were breached.

The Tory party chairman told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

I understand and I appreciate that there was a perception, particularly from the media coverage surrounding those alleged events, that we were not abiding by the rules.

I have to say to you that there is an ongoing inquiry by the cabinet secretary and I’m confident that that inquiry will vindicate the prime minister’s assertion that everything that happened was within the rules.

But I do appreciate the noise and the sound around that was something that was of concern to voters.

Updated

These are from former politics professor and elections expert, Ivor Crewe. Crewe explains that the result in North Shropshire is unique as far as the loss of “true blue” seats go in that it was clearly a verdict on Boris Johnson’s character and the integrity of his government, as opposed to dissatisfaction with policies.

Updated

This, from politics professor Philip Cowley, is noteworthy for context on just how astonishing the size of this Lib Dem victory is

Tory party chairman Oliver Dowden said he does not think the North Shropshire by-election result amounts to a “sea change” in British politics.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

I would... note that this was a unique byelection caused by the resignation of an incumbent MP over sleaze.

I would also note that if there was some massive sea change in the way that you describe in British politics, you would have expected the Labour Party, who were in a strong second place, to be surging ahead and winning. In fact, their vote sank.

So, whilst I do very much hear voters’ frustrations, I don’t think it amounts to a sea change.

This analysis is from The Spectator’s Katy Balls

So, why did the Tories fail here? There has been much expectation management in recent days from Tory sources – with some Johnson allies arguing that it is more unusual for the governing party to win a by-election than to lose one. There had also been problems on the ground, the Tory candidate Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst was criticised for not being a local given he was based in Birmingham as well as anger over the ambulance services in the area.

Yet this result clearly will be tied to Boris Johnson’s leadership and the difficult time the prime minister has had over the past month. While campaigners both for the Tories and the Lib Dems say sleaze only came up rarely on the doorstep, the Paterson row kicked off a chain of events that have seen Johnson’s personal ratings fall. Since that initial row – and failed attempt by Johnson to change the rules on MPs’s standards – Johnson has faced increased scrutiny over his Downing Street operation. His rambling speech to business leaders at the CBI in which he spoke about Peppa Pig regularly came up on the doorstep. What’s more, in the past week those canvassing say the ‘partygate’ row – over alleged Covid breaches last year in No 10 - had become a potent issue.

While a by-election is more open to becoming a protest vote than a general election, the result will give Tory MPs pause for thought. North Shropshire is an area that voted heavily to leave and which ought to count as a Tory safe seat. What’s more, the main reason MPs back Johnson is not ideology but the fact they see him as a winner. If a majority of over 20,000 can be overturned in a seat like this, MPs with smaller majorities (particularly Lib Dem/Tory marginals) are going to grow much more concerned about the current direction of travel.

Read the full piece here (paywall).

Tory MP Sir Charles Walker, the former chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, said he was not surprised the governing party lost in North Shropshire.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

People are tired, angry, exhausted, 20 months of a pandemic. It’s put government under the microscope, mistakes have been made.

The prime minister will be the first to admit mistakes have been made. It’s a very, very difficult time for the country, for governments, and I would be surprised if we didn’t lose it.

Of course, I’m sad we lost it but we sort of have defied political gravity for 11 years and we are now returning to business as usual I’m afraid.

But he said he did not believe the Tories would have a leadership challenge in the midst of the Covid pandemic.

It doesn’t meant the end, and it certainly doesn’t mean leadership challenges. I mean, the Conservative Party is not going to have a leadership challenge as we are heading into potential further restrictions around Covid, and difficulties around Covid.

That would be completely self-indulgent.

Updated

Senior Tory MP, John Redwood, has asked whether - in the wake of this defeat - the government will now reflect on its policy choices and said it’s time for them to “listen to Conservatives”.

Updated

This is from The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith

And this is from the BBC’s Lewis Goodall (the whole thread is worth your time)

More from Sir Roger Gale, who has represented North Thanet since 1983. The veteran Tory MP said Boris Johnson has to “prove” he is a capable leader, after the party removed Theresa May from office to promote him.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

The Conservative Party has a reputation for not taking prisoners. If the prime minister fails, the prime minister goes.

We got rid of a good prime minister to install Mr Johnson. Mr Johnson has to prove that he’s capable of being a good prime minister and at the moment it’s quite clear that the public don’t think that that’s the case.

Gale, who previously said he reluctantly voted Remain in the Brexit referendum, added:

This is nothing to do with Brexit at all, this is to do with the performance since Brexit.

It goes back to Barnard Castle in my case. I was dissatisfied then because it was not firm government.

And a lot of what has happened since then I think has made it clear that the prime minister and the people surrounding the prime minister are not the right people.

If it is something of a cliche that the Conservatives can be brutal in how they treat leaders who no longer feel like electoral assets, this is arguably all the more so for Boris Johnson, whose primary attraction for many of his MPs was his appeal to voters. If that has gone, he should be worried.

They key word is “if”. The Tories’ loss to the Liberal Democrats of North Shropshire – a seat they had held for all but two of the last 189 years – is an undeniable earthquake, but byelections have particular qualities, not least the greater ability for opposition support to coalesce around one party.

They often do hold wider lessons for governments, though, even midterm ones that could expect to receive something of a kicking from the voters at the best of times.

What will alarm Johnson’s aides are the many reports from North Shropshire of not just annoyance with the government but some fairly significant and personal distaste for the prime minister.

This was a recurring theme of the last major byelection story, the Lib Dems’ overturning of a 16,000-strong Tory majority in Chesham and Amersham in June, but here at least some of this could be explained by a strain of liberal, internationalist Conservatism in the affluent commuter belt seat.

North Shropshire is very different: largely rural and strongly pro-Brexit. But here, too, voters complained about a sense of being taken for granted by the Tories, and also a feeling that Johnson was slippery, and not sufficiently serious.

Some Conservative MPs will thus awake on Friday with two calculations in mind. Firstly, if their party can lose a seat which had a near-23,000 majority, what would such a swing mean for them? Also, if voters dislike the prime minister in both Chesham and Amersham, and North Shropshire, where exactly is he still popular?

One consolation for Downing Street is that such mutinous thoughts will largely not be discussed with fellow MPs, as the political firebreak of the Commons Christmas recess has begun, closing what has been perhaps the most politically damaging week of Johnson’s career.

It included a buildup of damning publicity over two rolling stories: a series of reports of allegedly lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street, Conservative HQ, and government departments; and the prospect of more revelations about how Johnson had the costly renovation of his official flat paid for.

Amid all this, Johnson was leading the response to a huge wave of the Omicron variant, which required the rushing-in of his plan B suite of restrictions, including a return to home working, further mask use, and the introduction of mandatory Covid certificates to enter venues like nightclubs and football grounds.

The latter plan was hugely unpopular among many Tory MPs, 99 of whom rebelled in a Commons vote on Tuesday, calling into question both Johnson’s authority and his ability to further tighten Covid rules if, as many public health experts predict, the Omicron wave worsens.

Some Tories will note that the North Shropshire campaign was always going to be tricky for the government, given it was prompted by the resignation of the former environment secretary Owen Paterson, who had broken rules on paid lobbying.

But even this, many will feel, was a situation mishandled by Johnson and his advisers. Paterson only stepped down after Downing Street U-turned on an attempt to save him from punishment by trying to unilaterally rewrite the entire disciplinary system for MPs, sparking a mass of stories about lobbying and second jobs.

If, in contrast, Johnson had urged Paterson to quietly serve the 30-day suspension imposed as a punishment, that would all have ended this week, and the prime minister might have been going into Christmas in a happier position.

Here is the full analysis: North Shropshire byelection earthquake delivers unhappy Christmas for Boris Johnson

Here is Helen Morgan’s victory speech in full

Oliver Dowden told Sky News this morning the circumstances of a “meeting” that took place in Downing Street during the first national lockdown were “appropriate and reasonable”.

It has been alleged that Boris Johnson attended a party with staff at No 10 on 15 May last year.

But Dowden referred to the event as a “meeting” and said that he did not think it would be necessary for the cabinet secretary Simon Case to investigate.

I understand that this was a meeting that took place in the garden. Actually it was the case at the time if you are going to have a meeting you’re better off having it outside because of the fresh air and ventilation.

Asked if there would be an investigation, he said:

I have seen the account given by Downing Street that there was a meeting that took place, and it took place outside. I think that that was perfectly appropriate and reasonable. There had been a press conference previously, and it was perfectly reasonable to have the meeting afterwards outside.

He added:

I don’t think there’s a need for the cabinet secretary to look into this one because the circumstances appear to be pretty clear.

This analysis of what the defeat could mean for the prime minister is from the BBC’s Ben Wright:

The collapse of the Conservative vote in a once true blue, pro-Brexit seat is disastrous for Boris Johnson.

The endless headlines about sleaze and parties, held in apparent breach of the government’s own rules, drove voters away from the Tories in remarkable numbers.

Now, the question is whether Conservative MPs lose confidence in their leader. Many of them have been in despair about recent events.

The readiness of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary party to defy his authority was shown this week when half of Conservative backbenchers voted against the government’s Covid measures.

No 10 may try to brush off this by-election as mid-term malaise, a protest vote that should be kept in perspective.

But just two years after winning an 80-seat majority for the Conservatives, some of Mr Johnson’s MPs may look at this result and ask if their leader is becoming a liability.

The full BBC story is here.

From the FT’s Jim Pickard

'One more strike and he's out', says veteran Tory MP

Veteran Tory MP Sir Roger Gale said the Tories’ North Shropshire by-election defeat should be seen as a “referendum” on Boris Johnson’s premiership, adding “one more strike and he’s out”.

Asked why the Tories lost, the North Thanet MP told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme said Johnson must take personal blame:

Because the electorate wanted to send a very clear message to Downing Street that they were dissatisfied with the management of this government.

I think this has to be seen as a referendum on the prime minister’s performance and I think that the prime minister is now in ‘last orders’ time.

Two strikes already, one earlier this week in the vote in the Commons and now this. One more strike and he’s out.

Updated

'Voters gave us a kicking', says Dowden on huge byelection loss

The Tory party chairman, Oliver Dowden, has told Sky News:

Voters in North Shropshire were fed up and they gave us a kicking. I think they wanted to send us a message - and I want to say as chairman of the Conservative Party, we hear that loud and clear.

But he also claimed the circumstances were “unique” and Boris Johnson “has the vision to get us through this period. He added:

Voters are clearly fed up and they want us to get on with the job and focus on the job.

Dowden also insisted Johnson was still an “electoral asset” for the Tories.

Yes, I think the prime minister is an electoral asset for the Conservative Party, and I’ll tell you why.

Just take the three really big calls we’ve faced. Get Brexit done: he’s delivered on it. We’ve delivered the fastest booster programme in the world twice over and we’ve seen the economy through this terrible period, with unemployment lower than when we entered.

So I think actually on the big calls the prime minister has the vision and the direction to get us through this difficult period.

Updated

These are from ITV’s Paul Brand, who points out that this result is another unforced error for the PM - if Owen Paterson had taken his original punishment his suspension would have been over by now.

The Lib Dem leader, Sir Ed Davey, who was unable to attend the count in person after testing positive for Covid, said:

This result is a watershed moment in our politics and offers hope to people around the country that a brighter future is possible.

Millions of people are fed up with Boris Johnson and his failure to provide leadership throughout the pandemic and last night the voters of North Shropshire spoke for all of them.

From Buckinghamshire to Shropshire, lifelong Conservatives have turned to the Liberal Democrats in their droves and sent a clear message to the prime minister that the party is over.

He also tweeted:

Updated

The calamitous collapse in Conservative support – a 34% swing in a seat where they had a near-23,000 majority in 2019 – will prompt significant jitters among many Tory MPs, and is likely to raise questions about Boris Johnson’s future.

It was a swing even greater than the 25% seen last June when the Lib Dems won the Chesham and Amersham byelection.

North Shropshire was seen as a notably greater challenge for the party, given it is a largely rural and strongly pro-Brexit constituency, one which has been Tory for all but two of the past 189 years, from 1904 to 1906. Morgan fought the seat in 2019 and came third, with 10% support.

The byelection was called after the former environment secretary Owen Paterson resigned in the wake of a botched attempt by Downing Street to save him from punishment for a serious breach of lobbying rules by rewriting the disciplinary system for MPs, which set off a string of damaging stories about other Tory MPs’ second jobs.

It was fought amid a wider atmosphere of damaging claims for Johnson and his government over allegations of lockdown-breaking Downing Street parties and a major Tory rebellion over Covid rules.

In her victory speech, Helen Morgan, a 46-year-old accountant and parish councillor, repeatedly targeted the prime minister, saying Conservative voters had been “dismayed by Boris Johnson’s lack of decency and fed up with being taken for granted”.

“Tonight, the people of North Shropshire have spoken on behalf of the British people,” she told the count in Shrewsbury.

They have said loudly and clearly: Boris Johnson, the party is over.

While earlier prime ministers “believed in a sense of national service”, Morgan said, with Johnson it was “all about you and never about us”. She added:

Our country is crying out for leadership. Mr Johnson, you are no leader.

The full story is here: North Shropshire byelection: Liberal Democrats win former safe Tory seat in blow to Johnson

'The party is over': Lib Dems win former safe Tory seat in huge blow to Boris Johnson

Good morning and welcome to the morning after the North Shropshire byelection. The Lib Dems have not only taken the previously safe Tory seat, they have done it with a majority of close to 6,000 - bookending a turbulent and damaging few weeks for Boris Johnson.

Helen Morgan, the Lib Dem candidate, won 17,957 votes, ahead of the Conservatives’ Neil Shastri-Hurst, on 12,032, a majority of 5,925. Labour’s Ben Wood was third, with 3,686 votes. Turnout was 46.3%.

That represents an astonishing 34-point swing away from the Conservatives - their majority in 2019 was almost 23,000.

Here is my colleague Peter Walker’s overnight story: North Shropshire byelection: Liberal Democrats win former safe Tory seat in blow to Johnson

I’ll be bringing you live updates and reaction throughout the day. Please feel free to get in touch with me as I work if you have a story or tips to share! Your thoughts are always welcome.

Email: lucy.campbell@theguardian.com
Twitter: @lucy_campbell_

Updated

Helen Morgan of the Liberal Democrats making her victory speech after being declared the winner in the North Shropshire by-election at Shrewsbury Sports Village.
Helen Morgan of the Liberal Democrats making her victory speech after being declared the winner in the North Shropshire by-election at Shrewsbury Sports Village. Photograph: Jacob King/PA

Updated

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