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ABC News
Health
North Asia correspondent James Oaten  

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un is facing a COVID-19 crisis and a tough new adversary in the south

Analysts say Kim Jong Un is under pressure due to a COVID-19 outbreak and a tough new leader in South Korea.  (Korean Central News Agency via Reuters )

In late April, after weeks of rigorous rehearsals, North Korea's armed forces put on one of their trademark military parades to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the Korean People's Revolution Army. 

Around 20,000 people took part, with soldiers marching in perfect unison in front of enthusiastic crowds waving mini North Korean flags.

The regime's latest intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-17, was put on full display for the world to see.

Supreme leader Kim Jong Un wore a white "emperor style" suit for the momentous occasion.

Some analysts believe COVID-19 was circulating at a mass gathering held for the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army.  (Korean Central News Agency via Reuters )

Yet while the choreographed show of confidence was underway, a COVID-19 catastrophe was brewing.

Weeks later, the North Korean regime admitted it was around that time that a mystery "fever" was first detected sweeping the land.

Dominique Fraser, a research associate with the Asia Society Policy Institute, said reporting on the secretive state required "guesswork", but soldiers testing positive for COVID-19 has led to speculation the parade was a major source of the outbreak. 

"For North Korean leaders, it's very hard — especially in April, around those celebrations — to concede that anything might be going wrong in the country," Ms Fraser said.

"It's just getting out of hand."

North Korea's secretive tendencies make COVID harder to track

North Korea is one of only two countries that are completely unvaccinated, according to the World Health Organization, and its healthcare system is decrepit.

The other is the north-east African nation of Eritrea. 

While North Korean state television confirmed the Omicron variant has been detected, it is impossible to confirm the true extent of the outbreak due to the state's secretive nature and a severe lack of testing capability.

It is widely expected that most, perhaps all, of the 1.7 million confirmed cases of "fever" are COVID-19.

But it's not just the absence of vaccines or quality health care that makes the country vulnerable.

North Korea depends on outdated agricultural practices, so an outbreak that keeps farmers from their crops could be extremely perilous for the nation.  (Reuters: Reinhard Krause)

Around 40 per cent of the population is undernourished.

The country's food security is tenuous after recent bad harvests, and farmers have been told to source their own manure due to a lack of fertiliser.

The United Nations has warned a prolonged lockdown could be catastrophic for the impoverished country.

"The regime has little regard for its population," Ms Fraser said, adding that North Korea "definitely have the stomach" to follow in the footsteps of China with harsh curfews and lockdowns.

"But on the other hand, they're not China. Their economy has suffered from economic mismanagement, US sanctions, and now two years of closed borders."

The WHO said earlier this week China's COVID-zero policy was not "sustainable" given its impact on human rights.

Will Kim let North Korea ask for help?

A reportedly furious Kim Jong Un has expressed dismay at the lack of drugs in pharmacies, and lambasted the country's health officials as "immature" for failing to stop the outbreak.

He mobilised the military to lead the response.

The situation is likely a major source of embarrassment for the regime, which had long dubiously claimed to be COVID-free.

North Korea has reported more than 1.5 million cases of what it calls "fever", believed to be COVID-19.  (AP: Cha Song Ho/File)

If the military parade was a superspreader event, it would be adding injury to insult.

North Korea has stubbornly refused to accept outside offers of help, including vaccines.

"The regime places priority on control rather than efficacy," said Dr Go Myong-Hyun, from The Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

"[Vaccinations] would have to be carried out at a massive scale, in a very short period of time. North Korea cannot do it themselves.

"The regime is probably worried about the optics of it. The optics that the regime is not capable enough."

COVID is not the only threat unsettling Kim Jong Un 

The outbreak also comes amid a "year of provocations", with North Korea's defence force taking every opportunity to show off their latest military tech.

A flurry of recent tests included a submarine-launched ballistic missile and the country's first intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017, which in theory could hit the mainland United States.

The country will likely soon conduct its first nuclear test in five years, according to the United States and South Korea.

Pyongyang's recent posturing has been partially attributed to the rise of conservative South Korean leader Yoon Suk-yeol, who holds a hawkish view against the North and had declared an unwavering commitment to the US alliance.

That has led to threats and counter-threats between arch-rivals North and South Korea.

State media reported the successful test of a "new type" of intercontinental ballistic missile in late March. (Korean Central News Agency via Reuters)

"Yoon was not shy to talk about things like pre-emptive strikes against North Korean command," said journalist Jeongmin Kim, lead correspondent for online publication NK News.

South Korea's new President is playing host to United States President Joe Biden, who arrived on Friday, before visiting Tokyo for the Quad leaders' summit with Australia, India and Japan.

Yoon Suk-yeol won South Korea's presidential election in March. (Reuters: Kim Hong-Ji/Pool)

Eyes will be on how the North behaves during this time, with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan telling reporters there is a "genuine possibility" North Korea conducts a nuclear or missile test to coincide with President Biden's visit.

South Korean intelligence has reported preparations for a nuclear test are "complete".

Dr Go says the North is likely to push on with planned weapons tests after years of hard work, but the Omicron outbreak makes such forecasts difficult. 

"The arrival of the Omicron variant represents an external shock to the regime," he said.

"The regime is probably very surprised. This could lead to a slowing down of their external provocations. It could affect their military production.

"In terms of big picture, I would expect a slowdown."

A significant COVID-19 outbreak could unleash a humanitarian crisis in North Korea, which is believed to be unvaccinated.  (Kyodo via Reuters )
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