The clocks do not go back for another week but it is never too early for a north-east crisis and, sure enough Sunderland and Middlesbrough already look deeply troubled.
David Moyes’s bottom-placed side go to West Ham on Saturday having collected only two points this season, and Aitor Karanka celebrated his sole win at Sunderland’s expense and has seen his team – 17th and at Arsenal on Saturday – lose four of their past five games.
How safe is the manager?
Sunderland There is no boardroom appetite for sacking Moyes but Ellis Short, the owner, and Martin Bain, the chief executive, are concerned by the results. Bain says the club’s seventh manager in five years will be given “every possible opportunity to succeed” after being tasked with a “rebuilding job” but he has also acknowledged that “winning” is the immediate priority. Should Sunderland go into November’s international break still lacking a league victory a difficult “stick or twist” decision will need to be made but the board – who recognise Moyes has inherited a poisoned chalice and regard him as potentially offering a long-term solution – seem minded to keep the faith. Club sources remain adamant there is no Chinese takeover on the horizon and Sam Allardyce will not be returning as manager.
Middlesbrough Steve Gibson, the owner, is big on loyalty and offered Karanka the benefit of the doubt following the manager’s brief suspension from duties after a post-training meltdown last March. After reinstating the Spaniard, Gibson was rewarded with promotion and, in turn, furnished Karanka with generous transfer market support. Should the squad continue to underachieve, the owner will do what it takes to protect that investment. The manager’s stubborn streak has nurtured a few critics inside and outside the club. If they are to be prevented from inflicting serious wounds, a man who, unusually, has engaged his own PR team could do with a home win against Bournemouth on Saturday week.
Are the problems tactical?
Sunderland Partly. Moyes is attempting to introduce a “more progressive” style of football intended to replace the tactical functionalism practised by Allardyce and the transition is proving turbulent. Jermain Defoe, the main striker, says: “From the end of last season I feel we’ve gone backwards a little. We’ve given away stupid goals, the kind we wouldn’t have given away last season, with some schoolboy errors where we’re trying to play one-twos on the edge of our box.” There are shades of Newcastle’s debilitating shift from Alan Pardew’s pragmatism to Steve McClaren’s passing game last season. Moyes has resisted playing five at the back but there is arguably a case for him deploying a central defensive trio.
Middlesbrough Almost certainly. Karanka is wedded to his beloved 4-2-3-1 but seems to consistently lack a plan B when it misfires and is frequently unwilling or slow to change things mid-game. eavily resistant to the concept of fielding two up front, Karanka’s problem is not so much with 4-2-3-1 itself but its cautious implementation and his dogmatic mindset. Boro’s patient, possession-based passing style worked well in the Championship but has produced only four top-flight goals from open play. This paucity has at times begged the question as to whether Stewart Downing and Gaston Ramírez are really suited to playing alongside each other in the attacking midfield three. There is a case for experimenting with 4-4-2, 3-5-2 or 4-3-3 but Karanka has signed players specifically selected to operate within his preferred formation and claims he retains “150% faith in my methods”.
Are the players good enough?
Sunderland In several cases no. The failure to re-sign Yann M’Vila from Rubin Kazan and the loss of Younès Kaboul to Watford has weakened a squad in which Papy Djilobodji, an £8m buy from Chelsea, looks a poor man’s Titus Bramble. That said, Lamine Koné and Wahbi Khazri, so key to securing survival last spring, are underachieving and other capable individuals – including Jan Kirchhoff and Lee Cattermole – are injured. But Defoe’s goals camouflage considerable weaknesses; were the striker to sustain serious injury Sunderland would surely be doomed.
Middlesbrough On paper at least, they should be but, right now, the jury is out on, among others Ramírez, Álvaro Negredo and Marten de Roon. Maybe another manager might be able to coax better performances from them or perhaps it is simply a case of talented individuals needing time to overcome the culture shock involved in swapping either the Championship or European football for the Premier League. A shortage of scorching pace, height, creative improvisation and top-tier experience threatens to undermine them.
Any reasons for optimism?
Sunderland Defoe’s goals. Moyes’s history – he started slowly at Everton but departed a big hit. M’Vila’s mooted January arrival. The prospect of Kirchhoff, Cattermole and Fabio Borini returning from injury. Jordan Pickford’s excellence in goal.
Middlesbrough Ben Gibson’s outstanding performances at centre-half. The defence’s meanness. The captain Grant Leadbitter’s impending return to central midfield. The potential of Negredo, Ramírez and Viktor Fischer. Downing’s nous. George Friend’s attacking ability from left-back.
What changes are required?
Sunderland The signing of a top-quality attacking partner/cover for Defoe. Ensuring M’Vila’s January return. A medical protocol overhaul designed to minimise the spat of injuries and, when finally fit, a way of somehow keeping Kirchhoff on the pitch. Defensive tightening.
Middlesbrough A release of the metaphorical handbrake and a new-found capacity for compromise from Karanka. Greater meritocracy and flexibility in team selection. The need for Karanka to remember his saying “excuses are for losers” while refraining from reaching into his old friend José Mourinho’s songbook and resorting to the sort of diversionary tactics which had him blaming Watford’s perceived time-wasting ploys for a recent defeat.
