Falling Covid infection rates more than two weeks after lockdown was lifted now represent a “real downward trend”, a North East health chief believes.
Public health officials and prime minister Boris Johnson have previously urged caution over the dropping case rates, warning that the impact of lockdown restrictions ending on July 19 had not yet been seen.
But with the North East’s infection levels continuing to head in the right direction more than a fortnight after that milestone, Newcastle public health director Eugene Milne says there is now a “clear case for some optimism” and that the current situation is “much better” than he had feared.
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On Tuesday, Newcastle City Council reported that the city’s infection rate was now 341 per 100,000 – with 98 new cases reported on July 31, the lowest daily total since June 13.
The average across the North East is now 336 per 100,000, the council said, a rapid drop from a peak of 970 per 100,000 just two weeks ago.
While infection rates here do remain above the England average of 280 per 100,000 and there has been a fall in the number of people taking Covid tests, Prof Milne is optimistic about the trend.
He said: “Newcastle’s case numbers have fallen steadily over the last two weeks and, encouragingly, are falling across all ages. At the same time, the number of tests has fallen, but so has the proportion that are proving positive.
"Taken together with levelling of hospital demand from Covid this looks like a real downward trend and not just a consequence of the schools testing regime having finished or students returning to their parents’ homes for the summer.
“There is a clear case for some optimism, but the fall is also a result of people continuing to be cautious, considerate and kind in protecting themselves and others in the city.
“In the two weeks since further restrictions were lifted, many businesses, residents and communities have continued to wear face coverings, maintain safe distances and meet outside. We know these measures work and people’s behaviour will continue to be crucial in preventing further spikes.
“Vaccines remain highly effective in overcoming the virus - every jab adds another layer of protection to our city. If you have not had your vaccine yet I urge you to go along to one of our clinics, pop-up facilities or vaccine bus for your own sake, your family’s and, in the broadest sense, your neighbours'.
“We are still not at the end of this but we are in a much better position at this stage than I had feared. We should continue to work together, do our bit and sustain this progress.”
After warnings of huge pressure on Newcastle’s hospitals caused by rising Covid cases, staff self-isolating, and unprecedented demand of A&E services, there was hope towards the end of last week that the situation “seems to have stabilised”.
However, Newcastle Hospitals’ chief executive tweeted on Tuesday morning that the Royal Victoria Infirmary’s emergency department had “experienced a pressured 24 hours after weeks of unprecedented patient numbers”.
Dame Jackie Daniel added: “The team are facing relentless demand but are continuing to respond with outstanding care, kindness and compassion. Thank you for all you are doing.
“Having visited the team this morning and spoken in detail to a range of staff, I’m struck by how many are hoping this isn’t the ‘new normal’. As a system we need to respond together to maintain our high standards and to support our teams.”
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