The reproduction (R) rate of Covid-19 remains close to the tipping point - but the North East and Yorkshire continue to narrowly outperform much of England.
For the first time, the Government has released a regional breakdown of R, a measure of how many people on average someone infected with coronavirus passes the illness on to.
As reported last week, a Public Health England and Cambridge University joint study found the North East and Yorkshire had the lowest transmission rate in the country at 0.89.
A new study from the Government Office for Science has estimated the region's R is between 0.7 and 1, matched only by the East of England (0.7-0.9).
When the R is above 1, it means the pandemic is growing. Keeping this key measure below 1 is one of the Government's five key tests used to decide when to lift lockdown measures.
Across the UK, the R rate is between 0.7 and 0.9, the Government estimates, which means the virus is on the wane but isn't far from the tipping point.
London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East have R values of 0.8–1.0. In the South West, the R is between 0.8 and 1.1.
Experts say R is not the only important measure of the epidemic as it indicates whether the epidemic is trending towards getting bigger or smaller but not how large it is.
Therefore, the number of people currently infected with Covid-19 – and so able to pass it on – is very important.
As an average value, R can vary in different parts of the country, communities and subsections of the population. It cannot be measured directly so there is always some uncertainty around its exact value.
When there are a small number of cases, estimates of R become less robust and less useful in determining the state of the epidemic. That's because a localised outbreak in an otherwise coronavirus-free area would result in a high overall R rate despite the fact local outbreaks are easier to contain.
The R values are shown as the range and the most likely estimate is in the middle of this range.
Matt Keeling, professor of populations and disease at the University of Warwick, said: “All the ranges are similar and overlapping so we cannot say that any one region is worse than any other region.
“All the ranges are closer to the critical threshold of R=1 than we would ideally like to see – which means that the epidemic is declining relatively slowly.
“This also means we haven’t got much wiggle room for additional relaxation of social distancing measures.”
