The prevalence of coronavirus rose in parts of England towards the end of the national lockdown, research suggests.
While infections across the country fell by almost a third and levelled off during the nationwide restrictions, there were regional variations, the latest findings from Imperial College London’s seventh React study show.
The prevalence in the capital rose from 98 per 10,000 people in mid-November to 121 per 10,000 by the beginning of this month.
This was the highest prevalence after Yorkshire and the Humber, and the North East which also rose when comparing regional prevalence for November 13-24 to the period of November 25-December 3.
Prevalence also increased in the East of England but was down in the East Midlands, North West, West Midlands and South West over the same period, the data showed.
More than 160,000 volunteers were tested in England between November 13 and December 3 as part of the study.
The findings showed that infections fell by 30% across England, bringing R below 1.
Regional R numbers during lockdown ranged from 0.60 for the West Midlands up to 1.27 for London, the researchers said.
Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said: “What we didn’t see in the second half of round seven – which we might have hoped to have seen – is at the national scale, we didn’t see that sharp trend continue all the way down.
“What we’ve seen here is a levelling off.”
He said there is a risk that while cases are lower than they have been in northern parts of the country, there could be a similar rise to that seen in London.
Prof Riley said: “If you think about our data, and the most recent case data from pillar one pillar two, we seem to be at a stage of epidemic where there is potential for rapid rises.
“That’s been seen in other places around the world, but it seems to be able to suddenly jump up, perhaps for reasons that we maybe don’t understand completely.
“So I think even if the current levels are lower in northern regions, than they have been in the recent past and appear to have levelled off, there’s clearly some kind of risk that they can accelerate in the way that London has.”
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, said: “During the first half of lockdown our study showed that infections were on a clear downward trajectory, but we’re now seeing a levelling off, driven by clusters of infections in certain regions and age groups.
“Behaviours and public health measures need to be guided by this fast-changing situation to prevent it from worsening, and everyone has a part to play in keeping this virus at bay, especially as we approach a relaxing of rules over Christmas.”
