The atmosphere at a season-deciding finale in the Formula One world championship is like no other. The paddock positively hums with a febrile, pulsing excitement and sense of expectation that is impossible to ignore. Amid all of which the title favourite, Lando Norris, finds himself at the moment he has dedicated his life toward, destiny lying in his own hands.
After a gruelling 23-race trek around the world, the conclusion of all the work, sacrifice and effort will be decided in just an hour and a half on Sunday afternoon in Abu Dhabi.
Norris has been fascinating to observe across a season during which he opened on top, was then eclipsed by his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri before mounting a comeback in the final third to retake the lead. Entering the final rubber at the Yas Marina Circuit, he holds a 12-point advantage over Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and 16 over Piastri.
Back in April at Suzuka, Norris was as forthright and honest as ever when we discussed his title hopes. At the time a potential championship decider was a world away but he was already adamant about how he would like to win it.
“I feel like there is a very prescribed version of how people say a world champion needs to be – overly aggressive,” he said. “I’ll do whatever I can to win a championship but maybe I won’t sacrifice in my life as much as some others, in terms of who I am as a person and have the ‘fuck you’ mentality people say you’ve got to have. I still believe I can be a world champion but doing it by being a nice guy.
“I want to just enjoy my life. That’s kind of the attitude that’s maybe not as much of a killer instinct. I just don’t think you have to have that to be a world champion. I want to prove you can be a world champion and not have it. I’ll still take risks and I’ll still do whatever I know I can do to be a world champion but without losing the liberty of who I am.”
This weekend will present the acid test of how Norris copes with maintaining that sense of self. Thus far, true to his word, he has played a straight bat. The British driver has got his elbows out on occasion as he did against Piastri in Singapore but has kept a good relationship with his teammate as the title race has fluctuated between them and as Verstappen charged back into the reckoning.
It was instructive that as he composed himself preparing for the decisive race, Norris still had that sense of perspective. “If it doesn’t go my way, then I try again next year,” he said. “It’ll hurt probably for a little while but then that’s life. I’ll crack on and try and do better next season.
“I also feel like I have the mentality of ‘I have nothing to lose’ because it’s just a race for a championship. In 30 years’ time, I probably won’t think of it that much either way. So, I’m not too bothered.”
Such nihilist analysis is surely a mechanism to allow him to focus simply on the job at hand, rather than the import which hangs so heavy over it.
Of the many permutations of what might happen on Sunday, if Norris does not seal it the criticism he is most likely to receive is that he is not ruthless enough and that he may well have been beaten by Verstappen who has no such qualms.
Indeed, the most ominous sign going into the weekend was how entirely relaxed the defending world champion was. Observing him laughing and joking about the task ahead and his repeated observations that he had nothing to lose, must have given Norris and the outsider Piastri pause for thought.
Verstappen has closed out four consecutive drivers’ championships. His nerves are certainly not jangling, he feels no pressure. He noted in Abu Dhabi that his parents were not attending as he had no expectation to be in the title fight at the finale.
“I have four of those [trophies] at home, so it’s nice to add a fifth,” he said to laughter when asked about his ambition going into the race. “I’ve already achieved everything that I wanted to achieve in F1 and everything is just a bonus. I just keep doing it because I love it and I enjoy it. That’s also how I go into this weekend, have a good time out there, try to maximise the result.”
His ease will doubtless be in stark contrast to the intense pressure Norris and Piastri currently feel. The first title is always the hardest and any error in this race might make the difference. Verstappen was so nervous on the final laps of his controversial first championship win here in Abu Dhabi in 2021 that his calf muscles began cramping.
The mathematics of this decider have many permutations but put simply, Norris will win if he finishes in front of both his rivals or claims third place or better. Verstappen would need to win and hope Norris finishes outside the podium places while Piastri would need to win and have the Briton finish sixth or lower.
Other factors might yet also be in play but will not become clearer until after qualifying. In terms of performance the track in Abu Dhabi is finely balanced between McLaren and Red Bull, with both enjoying sectors that will suit their car. Equally, Mercedes and Ferrari will expect to be strong at least in fighting to be the third and fourth fastest cars and drivers from both teams might project themselves into the title fight.
All four of whom drivers will pursue their goal of finishing as well as possible with no thought for how it affects the protagonists around them. On recent form George Russell and Charles Leclerc might expect to be in the mix, especially if there is an upset in qualifying. Neither will yield a place easily.
However, one advantage McLaren does enjoy is that both their drivers will be in said mix. Verstappen’s teammate Yuki Tsunoda is highly unlikely to play any part in the Dutchman’s charge given how far off the pace he has been this season .
Indeed, unless Norris or Piastri suffers a cataclysm in qualifying the three protagonists will probably be duking it out at the front for the championship on Sunday and that is what everyone wants to see. The moment of destiny in the desert.
