International brokerage firm Nomura raised Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) share price target to Rs 2,080 from Rs 1,850 (13% increase) while maintaining its Buy rating on the Adani Group stock.
The new target price implies an upside of 15% from current market levels. Analysts have raised their FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates for the company by 1% and 2%, respectively, citing expectations of a slightly more favourable revenue mix. The brokerage identified slower-than-expected cargo traffic growth and any further escalation in geopolitical tensions as key risks to its investment thesis.
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Why is Nomura bullish on Adani Ports?
Industry tailwinds - Nomura believes India’s largest port operator is well positioned to benefit from favourable long-term trends in India's freight and logistics sector.
According to the brokerage, the company's management expects India's freight and logistics market to expand at a CAGR of 8.6% between CY25 and CY31, driven by rising trade volumes, growing e-commerce penetration, increased manufacturing activity and continued infrastructure development. The growth is also expected to be supported by the formalisation of freight movement, better-organised supply chains and rising demand for efficient cargo-handling infrastructure.
The brokerage expects the company to continue delivering healthy growth as it benefits from the expanding logistics opportunity in the country.
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Strong guidance - Nomura highlighted that the company is targeting a significant expansion in domestic port capacity, with plans to increase it to 1,000 MT by CY30 from 653 MT in FY26, representing a 1.5x increase.
According to management, this capacity expansion is expected to help the company achieve domestic port traffic of 850 MT and overall port traffic of 1,000 MT by CY30, implying CAGRs of 14% and 16%, respectively, from FY26 levels.
Management has also guided for EBITDA CAGRs of 18% in the ports business, 27% in logistics and 19% in the marine segment over FY26-31. As a result, the company expects revenue, EBITDA and cash flow from operations (CFO) to grow at CAGRs of 19%, 18% and 18%, respectively, during the same period.
Capex push - The growth roadmap will be supported by a planned capital expenditure of Rs 90,000 crore to Rs 1 lakh crore over the five years through FY31. Alongside growth, management reiterated its objective of improving return on capital employed (ROCE) by 1 percentage point annually, indicating a focus on ensuring that expansion remains value accretive.
Given ADSEZ's extensive industry experience, strong execution track record and favourable industry outlook, Nomura believes these targets are largely achievable. The brokerage has factored in an EBITDA CAGR of 19% for the company over FY26-29.
Adani Ports share price performance
Adani Ports shares are up 22% in 2026 and 30% in the last 1 year. In today’s session, shares of the company rose over a percent to their day’s high of Rs 1,827 on the BSE, before paring gains to trade flat.
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,329 crore for the March-ended quarter, compared to Rs 3,014 crore in the year-ago period, marking a 10% increase. The profit after tax (PAT) is attributable to equity holders of the parent.
India's largest port operator posted revenue growth of 26% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 10,737 crore in Q4FY26, as against Rs 8,488 crore posted by the company in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
