Here in London it may still feel like it's summer, but autumn begins in earnest this week, with the announcement of the Nobel prize for literature. The Swedish Academy has announced that special pleading, prediction and speculation will come to an end at lunchtime this Thursday.
So is it finally Philp Roth's turn? The much-touted Syrian poet Adonis sits atop the betting at 4/1, with last year's favourite, the Swedish poet Thomas Tranströmer, following at 11/2. The Hungarian novelist Péter Nádas comes next, with the Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami close behind – both seem to have important books out this year in Swedish translation. As I write, Philip Roth languishes at 25/1.
Anyone who fancies a bet – and who is foolhardy enough to pay any attention to tips from the Guardian books desk – might consider Algerian novelist Assia Djebar: the first woman cited by Ladbrokes. When the permanent secretary of the Academy, Peter Englund, came in to talk about picking the winner, he admitted that he was conscious of the lack of women laureates – though he also insisted that individual winners stood only for themselves. Surely in the year of the Arab spring a woman author with roots in North Africa must be in with a strong shout.
