LEXINGTON, Ky. — Inexperience compounded by the coronavirus disrupting preseason preparation. Too many turnovers. Poor shooting. Lack of toughness. Thinking of "me" rather than "we." Over-burdened by a confidence-sapping schedule.
To the list of factors contributing to the 1-6 start for Kentucky's basketball team, John Calipari mentioned another on his radio show Monday night. The Wildcats do not have "a breakdown guy who can get us a basket," he said.
If that wasn't a steep enough hill to climb, Ken Pomeroy has suggested another factor: bad luck. College basketball's stats savant ranks Kentucky 357th — or last in Division I — in good fortune. In his estimation (and "estimation" is the term to use), UK has been the unluckiest basketball team in the nation this season.
Pomeroy acknowledged that luck can be a nebulous concept. How can you calculate and compare the favorings of the basketball gods?
"I can't look at plays that are happening in the game, so I am just using scores," Pomeroy said. "Basically, if you win a lot of close games, you're viewed as kind of lucky. If you lose close games, you're viewed as unlucky."
Kentucky's one victory was an 81-45 rout of Morehead State.
The final margin in three of Kentucky's losses could have been erased in a single possession. The other three were decided in the late stages of a possession-by-possession test of nerves.
"There's a lot that's out of your control," Pomeroy said of the luck involved in such games. "Sometimes the shot doesn't fall or the other team just makes a better play or an official makes a call that goes against you."
Of course, Olivier Sarr missed makeable mid-range jump shots in the final seconds of losses to Notre Dame and Louisville. Pomeroy saw luck clearly involved in the miss at U of L on Saturday.
"The ball was as close to going into the basket as it could be without going in," he said. "Barely falls out."
Pomeroy also cited a foul call that went against UK moments earlier at Louisville as another example of Lady Luck frowning on the Cats.
"Those things are definitely things you consider as luck," he said. "Even the most clutch player is not converting 100 percent of the time."
Pomeroy has always included luck as a category in his calculations. He said he followed the example of a person who he admired who applied analytics to NBA teams.
"I just prefer to call it as things out of your control or randomness," he said. "But 'luck' just fits nicely on the web page."
Pomeroy may not include luck as a statistical ranking far into the future.
"I kind of want to get rid of it," he said. "Every time a team ranks first or last, people take notice. I think if I get rid of it, people wouldn't complain. It mostly aggravates head coaches, especially teams that are doing well that I rank as being lucky. They don't really want to hear that."
Fan reaction is mixed to where a team ranks in terms of luck.
"Some people take solace in it," Pomeroy said. "Other people say, 'No. We deserve these losses. There's no luck involved.'"
Incidentally, Pomeroy ranked Navy No. 1 in luck through Tuesday's games. He ranked Louisville as the sixth-luckiest team.
In terms of experience, Pomeroy ranked Kentucky at No. 329. Inexperience has been "a common thread" in Calipari's time as coach, he said. Of UK's freshmen, he said, "it appears they're not as talented as some classes he's had in the past. . . . It's really hard to develop freshmen when you can't have a consistent practice schedule or a consistent game schedule."
Pomeroy ranked Kentucky's non-conference schedule as the 25th-most difficult.
Overall, Kentucky ranked No. 52 in Pomeroy's ratings. The only other team in the top 70 with a losing record was South Carolina (1-2) at No. 64.
He cited UK's initial rating at No. 11 and the bad luck as factors in having the Wildcats relatively high in his standings.
"It doesn't appear to be a team that's going to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament," Pomeroy said of Kentucky. "But they should pick up some wins in SEC play and finish in the top half of the league. So, they're still that kind of team."
Perhaps, luck will be on Kentucky's side the rest of the schedule. It's commonly believed that luck evens out over time.
But Pomeroy does not believe that is certain.
"Luck doesn't have a memory," he said.
