A so-called 'Spanish Plume' heatwave is not likely to bring scorching temperatures to the UK for the May Bank Holiday, forecasters said today.
Britain is set for colder temperatures than the country saw over the scorching Easter break, the Met office says.
Its long-range weather forecast says higher-than-average temperatures are likely between now and the beginning of July but, as an average, that is no guarantee of consistent sunny or warm conditions.
This is not a long-term “Spanish Plume” but a bank of higher pressure which could bring either sunny dry conditions or showers depending where it falls in relation to the British Isles.
Met Office meteorologist Steven Keates said: “It is very unlikely that we have three months of heatwave.”
He added that higher temperatures are not likely for May bank holiday: “The current thinking is that actually opposite may come of this weekend.”
Friday and Saturday are expected to start with unremarkable temperatures for May in the mid-teens but “a generally improving picture,” is expected from Sunday to Monday, he said.
“So we can expect some quite cold weather developing particularly through Friday and Saturday. Some showers are expected, and particularly in the north these showers may have a wintery element to them.
“We are probably looking at temperatures at around 14 to 16 degrees and we can expect colder weather at night.
“Into Sunday and Monday temperatures will probably rise into the high teens but still colder at night.”
The south is much less of a risk of rain with some sun shine expected further westm, he said.
The end of weekend will likely see a slight improvement with lower winds and some sunshine and marginally warmer temperatures.
Mr Keates explains that in terms of the rumoured “Spanish flume” there is a “50 per cent chance of higher than average temperatures from May through to July."
“The main source of this information is that most of the longer range computer models show a small but consistent increase with a likely bank of high pressure," he said.
“That means there is a good chance of sun shine and warm weather and usually when there is high pressure across the summer months, it means there will be warm and dry conditions.
“It doesn’t discount wetter weather or guarantee warmer weather."
“When a plume occurs they only last for a couple of days at once,” he explained.
“They usually bring the highest temperatures that we get in the summer.
“It happens most summers, where you get warmer weathers coming from Spain, travelling up north across the UK.”
Ultimately the seasonal forecast is looking at a reasonable possibility of higher than average temperatures for a three-month period.
Mr Keates added that this weekend we can expect "nothing special" like Easter bank holiday weekend.
Easter Saturday saw record breaking temperatures this year, with 25.5C, recorded in Gosport, Hampshire.
