After five years under military rule, Thailand in the aftermath of the March 24 general election was in dire need of political stability to help build economic confidence and rise beyond its political conflict. However, the post-poll political climate provides a different outlook. The country will likely suffer another round of political uncertainty amid mounting discontent under the rule of a weak, unstable and possibly short-lived coalition government.
It's a shame that the election will probably end up losing the country many opportunities.
After the polls, major political parties from both pro- and anti-junta camps have tried to form a coalition government. Two kingmakers, the Democrats and Bhumjaithai (BJT) parties, have reportedly been negotiating hard over their demands for key positions in the lower House and the cabinet.
Finally, the BJT announced on Monday that it would join an alliance of the pro-regime Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), whose prime ministerial candidate is the incumbent premier Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha.
And after Democrat veteran Chuan Leekpai was chosen as House speaker over the weekend with support from the PPRP-led camp, it doesn't appears out of the question that the Democrats might soon follow suit, even though its former leader Abhisit Vejjajiva made a campaign pledge not to support Gen Prayut and his regime.
Thailand has no reason to celebrate the arrival of this new government. The making of it has been full of self-serving negotiations among parties who demanded "A-list" cabinet jobs with little or no discussion about the capability and credentials of those seeking them.
Even if the PPRP succeeds in getting its allies on board, the new administration, which will likely be led by Gen Prayut as the next prime minister, will comprise as many as 20 parties. That will make it a hotbed of never-ending negotiations and compromises.
Worse still, it will have a wafer-thin majority that will pose obstacles to its administrative and legislative efforts. It's the kind of government that will have to try hard to survive its term, never mind accomplishing any major achievements.
Gen Prayut himself will face many unfamiliar challenges. His authoritative style of rule will no longer work in a coalition government. He will have try to please the PPRP's allies, instead of bossing them around. More importantly, he will be unable to get things done by using the special powers of Section 44 of the interim government in the manner he has done in past years.
Thailand might not have ended up in this mess if the regime-sponsored electoral law had not weakened the major established political parties and if the Election Commission (EC) had not rewarded 11 pro-regime small parties with list MPs they appear not to deserve.
But the regime has worsened the political climate by presiding over a series of bullying tactics taken by state mechanisms, mainly the EC, which has filed legal charges against executives of the anti-military Future Forward Party (FFP).
Yesterday, Gen Prayut even shrugged off a call by the Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights for his regime to end its campaign of legal harassment, which includes the media shareholding case against FFP leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit that is obviously politically motivated.
Gen Prayut should be aware that the ongoing harassment of regime foes might not only trigger another round of political conflict but that it also threatens the stability of a new and possibly very weak government.
