The crisis of more than a million young people neither working nor learning has “no easy solutions”, a Labour former minister has warned amid fears of a lost generation without urgent change.
One-time health secretary Alan Milburn warned a “whole system failure” has led to nearly one in seven of the UK’s 16 to 24-year-olds not in employment, education or training, known as Neets.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described Mr Milburn’s report as “sobering”, and said he “will not allow a lost generation”.
Mr Milburn insisted there is “no evidence” of a link between migration and joblessness among young people, and also appeared to defend Chancellor Rachel Reeves when asked about whether the Government’s increase in national insurance was a mistake for its impact on business.
His interim report, published on Thursday, came as the latest data showed the number of young people neither working nor learning has topped one million for the first time since 2013, reaching 1.01 million in the three months from January to March.
Mr Milburn’s report, commissioned by the Government to look at the causes and possible solutions to the Neets issue, warned the figure could rise to one in six by 2031, representing 1.25 million young people.
It also estimated the crisis is costing the UK around £125 billion a year – taking in factors including losses in taxes alongside higher health and welfare spending.
It is a sum surpassing annual education spending in England and could rise if the situation worsens, he warned.
Launching his report at a press conference in London, Mr Milburn warned that the issue is “more than an economic crisis, it is a moral one”, saying the “problem is that for too many young people, opportunities are not growing, they’re shrinking”.
He said there is a “risk of a lost generation” and that Britain “faces a generational fault line” – but he warned there are no easy solutions.
While he accepted it is “perfectly reasonable” to ask whether Labour’s policies of raising national insurance contributions and a higher national minimum wage make the situation worse or better, he added: “But let’s not pretend that is the root cause of the problem.”
He told reporters: “Seriously, I mean, honestly, this is the thing that so frustrates me about this thing that everybody goes for the bloody easy solution, don’t they? Let’s just go for the easy solution.
“There are no easy solutions, guys, none. They’re all hard, and you’ve got to do the proper analysis, you’ve got to do the proper data, you’ve got to do the proper structural changes.
“And if we keep just going on, well, you know, if Rachel hadn’t done this, and Rachel hadn’t done that, everything in the garden would be lovely, really? Really? Come on.”
He also branded immigration a “blame game issue”, suggesting an expected fall of net migration into negative figures in the near future could present an “opportunity”, with businesses facing a shortage of skilled labour potentially filling posts with currently jobless young people.
His report stated there is not one cause alone of the Neets issue, with factors including the pandemic, smartphones, a lack of readiness for work on leaving school and the jobs market.
He said: “The evidence does not support a single explanation.
“It supports something harder to accept: that the institutions we built to support young people into adulthood are no longer fit for that purpose, and that the country has known this for some time.”
Mr Milburn had already spoken at the weekend of a “bedroom generation”, saying anxiety linked to social media is driving economic inactivity among young people.
And while his report warned against apportioning blame to young people, it added that “effort matters”, “habits matter” and that young people and their parents have “agency and obligations”.
He added: “But it is dishonest to pretend that individual effort alone can overcome systems that are badly designed, poorly connected and, too often, indifferent to whether young people actually make it into sustained participation.”
Asked for his message to young people amid such difficult circumstances, he said: “Don’t give up”.
Rejection has “become part of the youth economy”, he said, adding: “You put in an application dozens at a time, you hear nothing back, you just get rejected.
He said the characterisation of young people not trying is “a myth”, adding: “The story of not trying, being soft, being a snowflake generation – I just don’t buy it.”
The review’s research found that 84% of Neets surveyed said they wanted a job or training.
As well as there being fewer jobs around for young people, the report stated that routes into work have narrowed, with the “death of the Saturday job” and a decline in apprenticeship starts.
The report estimated “the cumulative cost to our country of almost one million Neet young people at £125 billion a year”, adding that the “question is no longer whether the current position is affordable. It is whether it is sustainable.”
Mr Milburn’s report concluded that “what should have been treated as an urgent national crisis has been absorbed into the background noise of public life” as he argued “tolerance (of the status quo) is no longer acceptable”.
Sir Keir said the issue is “complicated and complex”.
The PM added: “We clearly need to (do) more. This is, you know, I think a real sobering report, and we cannot afford – we will not allow – a lost generation, and so we’ll work with Alan now on what more needs to be done.”
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden branded the latest Neet figures “stark” and said they “underline the importance of Alan Milburn’s report which I commissioned because we cannot afford to lose a generation of young people”.
He added the Government is “already taking action by bringing forward the biggest youth employment reforms in a generation to create 500,000 opportunities for young people, including a Youth Jobs Grant for businesses starting next month, more apprenticeships, and subsidised employment to help young people get a foot on the ladder”.
Recommendations for fundamental reform are expected in Mr Milburn’s final report which is due to be published in the autumn.
