In this special NL Hafta Live episode, Newslaundry’s Abhinandan Sekhri, Manisha Pande, Anand Vardhan and Raman Kirpal were joined by The Hindu’s Sobhana K Nair and senior journalist Neerja Chowdhury to decode the Bihar poll results.
On the sweeping mandate for the NDA, Anand spoke about Nitish Kumar’s enduring appeal, noting that he “maximises his EBC base better than anyone else. He knows how to balance administrative acumen with realpolitik.”
Sobhana weighed in on Prashant Kishor’s poor performance, saying, “It is not a surprise to me that Jan Suraaj did not get even a single seat. There was a lot of disinterest in the rural regions of Bihar. A lot of distrust also. There were questions being asked about where he was getting so much money to put up such a big campaign.”
Neerja highlighted the unusual nature of the mandate. “I have not seen this kind of a pro-incumbency wave in India despite 20 years in power. It is unprecedented.”
On Nitish Kumar’s future in Bihar, she pointed to his biggest vulnerability: “The minus point of Nitish Kumar is that he doesn’t have a second line of leadership. Nor has he named a successor. At one point he considered Prashant Kishor but the story would have been different had they not fallen out.”
Support our Bihar election coverage here.
Timecodes
00:00:00 - Introductions and announcements
00:01:25 - Headlines
00:13:28 - Discussion on Bihar Election results
01:34:17 - Neerja’s Recommendations
01:37:07 - Concluding remarks
01:46:06- Recommendations
References
Fight to Breathe: Combat Air Pollution
Ram Vilas Paswan: The Weathervane of Indian Politics
Recommendations
Abhinandan
In Delhi and beyond, toxic air is sustained by toxic politics
In Good Faith: A martyr for human rights, Guru Tegh Bahadur’s teachings continue to speak to us
Our security agencies deserve credit for thwarting a larger plot behind Red Fort blast
Manisha
Inside the BBC’s Gaza Fiasco Daniel Trilling
Raman
Anand
Check out previous Hafta recommendations, references, songs and letters.
Produced by NL Team.
Manisha: [00:00:00] This is a News Laundry podcast and you're listening to NL Hafta.
Abhinandan: Welcome to a very special episode of Hafta One. It's live, so we will all try to control a foul language. Anand, then please take note, it's live so we can't cut like we usually have to cut all your cus words and stuff. Anna is joining us straight from behind. He's landed. You came my train by
Anand : no train.
Abhinandan: So he's gotten this morning so he will give us the absolute latest from what he observed in Bihar.
Also in the studio on this live special Bihar election edition of Anal Hafta is Manisha Pane.
Song : Hello,
Abhinandan: our editorial director, Ram Sara Inchi.
Raman : Hello,
Abhinandan: and I'm ab and joining us later in this show will be Nyer. She has been on the Hafta before. She has written a book on Ram past. One was [00:01:00] also, uh, senior deputy editor with the Hindu, and she's reported extensively from Bihar and Veteran, one of the most, uh, in my view, important and fair.
Commentators Nija joining us later in the show as well. And she's the author of How Prime Minister the. Uh, so let's start with the headlines before we get to Bihar. Albi Manisha.
Manisha: Yes. Um, it's been a very heavy Newsweek for all of us here, so we should get to that. First, of course, the BHA elections after five hours of counting in bha, the ND is leading in 190 seats while the Margaret Bun is ahead in 48 seats.
According to the ECI data, the BGP leads in more than 80 seats. While the JDU is closed behind at 76, the Congress meanwhile is trailing with. Leads in just four seats. In very tragic news, a blast near Delhi's Red Fort on 10th of November killed 13 people injured over 20. Uh, Amitha confirmed the [00:02:00] explosion occurred in a slowly moving Hyundai one 20 near gate, one of Red Ford Metro Station.
The government has turned the incident a terror attack, calling it a heinous attack by anti-national forces. We'll discuss this in fair amount of detail in the next half the episode.
Abhinandan: Yeah,
Manisha: a lot has happened. There's been police crackdowns. Uh, there's a terror module that's been busted, so we should have a guest talk about this.
Abhinandan: Yeah, we'll have a guest talk, but since today's we have election, we will focus today's half the only on the higher election. But yes, next episode, definitely we'll go in depth into this.
Manisha: Yeah. Supreme Court on Tuesday, acquitted Sarra Coley in the last pending rape and murder case linked to 2005 2006. Na killings in no.
Abhinandan: This was, um, I mean, I don't know how many, if you remember this case, it dominated headlines. Yeah. There was, uh, his, um, employer pane from Punjab. He was also acquitted. He was also acquitted. And, uh, I mean, if this does not completely make the CBI the most useless organization, uh, you know, they, they should [00:03:00] really have that in the banner outside.
I don't know what does.
Manisha: It was really the case of that time. I mean, it was wall to wall, I think. I assume the case in this case was case.
Abhinandan: Yeah.
Manisha: The Commission for Air Quality Management in four stage three restrictions under the graded response action plan after air quality and Delhi deteriorated to severe levels.
So small mercies children can now attend school online.
Abhinandan: Mm-hmm.
Manisha: Rest of us must get to office and breach it air.
Abhinandan: Yeah. But I'm, I'm looking forward to the football nationals. That'll happen because Prime Minister won't, where
Manisha: is it happening?
Abhinandan: They'll happen. What month have we in, uh, wherein, uh. Where in November,
Manisha: in Delhi.
It'll
Abhinandan: happen next year. It'll happen next year. I mean, the, these small district tournaments, uh, state tournaments keep happening.
Manisha: I'm sure, actually. Yeah. Meanwhile, R'S Chief Moberg what said the organization is recognized as a body of individuals and does not require formal registration. Just like Hindu MA is not registered.
This was speaking at an event in Bangalore marking a hundred years of RSS. Pago also said that [00:04:00] RSS was founded in 1925. Do you expect us to have registered with the British government as the results are coming out? There's one important news. The Digital Personal Data Protection Act has been notified after two years and the RTI ACT has been amended.
So maybe we can discuss this also next
Abhinandan: week. Yeah. We should discuss this because, I mean, I haven't read what has been notified, but there were a few clauses that were very problematic, which. I dunno whether they've been written or not. We'll see.
Manisha: Carol has formally informed the union government that it is pausing the implementation of the PM three scheme until a cabinet sub committee reviews the agreement and the state cabinet froze the rollout.
After CPI criticized the government for joining the scheme. Without consulting the cabinet of the labs. A Delhi Court overturned a lower court's order directing police to file an FIR against BJP leader and Delhi Minister Kamra for his alleged role in February, 2020. Violence Supreme Court has asked the election commission to respond within two weeks to petitions challenging the original voter roll in Tamad and Westing world.[00:05:00]
Donald Trump is currently embroiled in a major row with the BBC threatening legal action, demanding a billion dollars in damages over an edited segment of his speech that Ed in the BBC Panorama documentary, bbc, and a lot of
Abhinandan: yeah, shit
Manisha: this week.
Abhinandan: So basically there are two designations as well. The director general team, Davey resigned and Deborah.
She is the head of news. They both had to resign. Um, of course they refused to give him a billion dollars, but of course, Trump turns every opportunity. Uh, but on the other two headlines before this, uh, Manisha just wanted to say that we will discuss in some detail. Uh, one is Kamisha, you know, high court strike overturning low court order, asking police to file in a fire against this man who's now a, um, minister.
And also like Manisha observed all the Bhu B across parties in Bihar have won. [00:06:00] I mean, one can keep remaining optimistic, but I don't think, uh, public institutions or, or, or even leaders, because leaders set the narrative, give a shit about whether you're a criminal, whether you have criminal record, whether you have criminal nce.
It just doesn't matter. I think we are not, um, you know, the Civil War Africa level, but as far as our acceptance of such characters is concerned, we are not that far. Actually, we can, can't flatter ourselves. But I mean, I don't see, I, so you've been around longer than I have, but in 20, in 1995, it was the same issues.
Oh my god, these guy's a you know, who
was
Anand : was in
Abhinandan: Asian age liner, he had to resign. [00:07:00] There was more shame of the INE having to resign at that time. 'cause everyone went at him than there is today. So we haven't moved forward. We've moved backwards. In my view,
Raman : I think over a period of time, uh, I have seen that the role of Bao Belize in the national politics is reducing.
Song : Hmm.
Raman : But in a se at assembly level, I mean, there's still rule, uh, in national politics. If somebody is very rich, maybe he will be, or he or she will be. I mean of, of course, baly mostly he
Manisha: the vibes of bas
Raman : and, uh, no, in, in fact, when I was in working in up, I had seen some women Bais also. But, uh, so, so I think that national it, it's re reducing day by day.
Uh, but yes, in assembly. Politics in, uh, state politics, Bao are still, uh, powerful. Uh, they are the backbones of their respective parties. [00:08:00]
Song : Mm.
Raman : Uh, so yes. So
Manisha: they're also local,
Raman : locally, also intimidation
Manisha: in some ways.
Raman : Intimidation works at, uh, you know, at small levels, uh, in, uh, I mean assembly politics. That's what I feel.
Anand : No, I, I think, uh, the role of Baal is, has reduced to, in fact, it's very marginal in Bihar politics now. And, uh, some of the remnants are very much, uh, relying on a straight pattern is to keep their political career afloat. Uh.
Um, people who visit, uh, these states from Delhi or other places during election tours, and they sidetrack, uh, they get sidetracked with these things. I, uh, uh, I think only three major BA are in contest. One is with Ada from dap, and one is who himself is not a B, but he is [00:09:00] a descendant of, uh, uh, a former and now pa uh, deceased B Shain.
And one is announcing, and, uh, the other person fighting against him is, uh, uh, wife of of ing. So what has happened is that like ban. He has not now, uh, say, diverted his activities into, say, contract business and, uh, not, not, uh, the kind of, uh, criminal activities that he indul in Earlier. Also, when itis came in 2005, he had, uh, means, uh, he had to somehow co-opt some of the Bais, not all, and OO once, uh, a person who, who was his classmate in engineering college told me that, uh, uh, uh, when ESE went, uh, to [00:10:00] some bies and he said that I don't want to, uh, co-op them into my government or give them, uh, tickets.
But in 2000 when he needed them, uh, you know, there was a seven day government, it is government. Then, uh, he said that two three bies may try to extend support to you. And his exact words was that, will I need to meet them? Then he said, of course, otherwise their ego would not be assessed. So he said, so then he said that the,
so, so, so, no, it is not Africa level or this level. That, that is a very wrong analysis. Uh, in fact, the role of BHU is very, very limited in the current civil society of bha. So
Abhinandan: it's not just, I'm not talking about like, if you like, narrow down to Bhu Bali, which [00:11:00] again is a vague definition. The, he's a bit of a buffon, if you remember how he fainted.
Oh, so one can, you know, redefine that word as you want, but people with criminal records, serious and credible criminal act, uh, accusations. Have no problem in getting tickets, getting elected and being made ministers. One thing is that out of political comp gave tickets, they could win. But once you have 50 people who won, who you make a minister determines what you incentivize.
So I'm not talking about bajo, I'm talking about criminals, which also include ies or allergic criminals. In that sense, I don't think there is any compunction or embarrassment by political leaders in our country to reward such people, and that I think is as bad as any other country, which has the worst record in maintaining basic [00:12:00] social decorum of what kind of people you pick to lead departments.
Raman : This can only happen if there is a law to, you know, ban such people to contest. Since there is no law.
Abhinandan: No, that is hard. So how can you, because if, unless someone's been convicted by court, you can't ban someone from
Raman : No. But then you, I don't expect parties to have such a moral
Abhinandan: Yes.
Raman : High stand to you.
Abhinandan: One has to expect that.
But, and just one thing before we get deep into Behar and then, you know, I'll hand over to Manisha. 'cause you're on a talk back and you have the data coming in, you can just give an latest data. The second thing I just wanna, which we'll talk in more detail, is for the first time in my living memory, has a terrorist attack been followed by news commentary?
Not of intelligence failure, but what an amazing intelligence success that. Only 13 people died. I'm blown away that this is normal, uh, including editorials. [00:13:00] That's calling one of my recommendations. I don't remember ever and whether it was Ro blast, whether it was, you know, the Delhi, the Parliament, I don't remember the news narrative ever being what a great job our intelligence agents have done.
They have prevented that's, could have been in hundreds. I we are in a complete loony zone. So yeah, these are my two observations. Now we can go to Bihar election. Manisha, what's the latest? And then,
Manisha: so I have data from the Election Commission website. So, which is why I'm not gonna say vs. Loses the leads, but these are very solidified leads now where, what, it's one 14.
So should be pretty sorted by now. NDA is leading in 198 seats. Margaret Buner in 39. And if you look at the breakup then BGP is leading in 90 seats. JDU is leading in 81 seats. I think the story of the moment is JDU really because of these leads confirm into wins than 81 is a very good, almost 30, 30 seats more than last time.
LGP [00:14:00] is leading in 20 seats. Again, really spectacular. Can't even say comeback. It's like a spectacular victory for them because the last time they were one, one seat, right? MGBR JD is at 28. They're leading in 28 seats INC in five seats. And Gen Raj is not leading anywhere right now and Amim is leading in five seats.
So those are the latest that we have.
Abhinandan: That's not bad considering they hardly got the airtime.
Manisha: Yeah, and a lot of people have written them off in the PU elections, but it seems like at least one seat from what it seems they may,
Abhinandan: is that more than the congress?
Manisha: Yeah. Now
Anand : one CCPI ML is also leading, I think.
Manisha: Yeah.
Anand : In the PU zone.
Abhinandan: Mm.
Anand : Pu June one, CPI ML from left is also leading somewhere.
Abhinandan: Sorry. Before we give to anon, you know, just giving us his view on these results, is uh, industry still trailing?
Manisha: No, he's leading right now.
Abhinandan: He was trailing right from, yeah,
Manisha: he was trailing, but it's a very narrow, he is at [00:15:00] 31 6 5 4.
And the BGP candidate, Satish Kmar is a 31 0 6 9. So it's very close. 600
Raman : dots.
Manisha: Yeah, just 600 wats.
Abhinandan: Is that a big thing? If he lose a mond, it's like spectacular. And data is a lot of, it's like Sheila losing or losing. Or not that big.
Anand : No, it's not big. In fact, ADA, the height of his popularity lost, uh, a very, yeah, very stronghold in Maura for, for which it is called that room Pope and Maura means.
So, yeah. So he lost the, and, uh, in fact, ri they even, she went to campaign in Ur, she, uh, faced a lot of, uh, very angry voters, uh, uh, who were complaining that you people don't come. It's your, I mean, kind of, uh, hereditary kind of seat because that family has won number of elections from that seat
Abhinandan: and always the family members contest.[00:16:00]
Anand : Yeah. Generally it's the demography is such that it is considered a very safe seat for the others.
Abhinandan: So, so it's, so it's not unprecedented for
Anand : Uhhuh? It's not means, uh, uh, what I mean to say that, uh, yeah. Uh, members from the Lalu family have, uh, in the past also lost from yada West strongholds. I see.
Abhinandan: Okay.
Anything else that is an outlier? Manisha?
Manisha: No. That's what we are getting so far. Uh, yeah. Seems pretty much an NDA victory at 1 98.
Abhinandan: Unprecedented.
Manisha: Yeah,
Anand : not unprecedented. In, uh, in 2010, I think ND had got 206 and
Abhinandan: that time NDA consisted of,
Anand : uh, JDU and BJP.
Abhinandan: There was no pass one then.
Anand : Uh, no, not pass, pass one was, I think then, uh, in UP.
Abhinandan: I see.
Anand : So if members, yes. He was in. So
Abhinandan: I, I think the other, of course we have, [00:17:00] uh, you know, Ms. Nier joining us later and, and as well. But, um, pass one, you know, doing so well is quite, you know, a credit to him because not so many people were taking him seriously as a politician, you know, after his father's passing.
Manisha: 20 seats out of 28 is pretty good. Yeah.
Abhinandan: 75% strike rate is
Manisha: good. Yeah.
Anand : So, uh, what happened is that, uh, Bihar is a different kind of Ali politics, which is not, uh, on the lines of UPM, but the right kind of Ali politics. But, uh, it's, uh, the. Dali population, which is considered is a stronghold, is around 20% in Bihar and outta, which his sub cast within the Dali mm-hmm.
Uh, cluster is around 5% Dals plus one. [00:18:00] So. The rest of the 15% is not a, his say, a stronghold in 2005. It is What he did that, he created this Ali out of the non non community, non pasan community. So he lost his hold, uh, of the rest of the Dali community because, uh, gave this layered kind of. Definition to it that, uh, all the rest sub cast within the lit.
So that's why, uh, uh, you see in 2005, Ramas past ones leadership under, uh, the maximum that the, uh, the newly created LGP hit in 2005 was 29, and he had become a the king maker and he couldn't decide. And that was the region that we had had to go for post again in the same year. Now, uh, now that's why that was one of the regions between lot of, uh, uh, uh, regions for the lot of, uh, [00:19:00] animosity and, uh, a kind of, uh, say understated tension between Pawan and nhi.
Uh, but lately he has realized that to recover even that ground, he has to ride on the popularity of Nish Kumar, and he has made peace with that. And those results are showing.
Abhinandan: So right now, um, at least one of the channels is showing left, which is I guess this collective for.
Anand : Mm-hmm.
Abhinandan: Uh, I don't know how many parties they're including, but it says nine.
That's more than the Congress. That's way more than the Congress. Yeah.
Anand : Yes. Last, uh, uh, last in, uh, in last election they had 16. Uh, in 2020, the all left parties combined in VR had, uh, done reasonably well. They had 16 seats, and particularly in this S belt, this
Manisha: CML [00:20:00] 12, that 1, 20 20,
Anand : no, 16, I think CPI, there are 2, 2 3.
CPI
Raman : and
Anand : CML ml both combined
Manisha: 12 cpi, CPI
Anand : as a whole had one 16.
Abhinandan: So right now ML is at six and so of Congress, so they joined in share numbers. So Manisha, what did your reporters have to say? Basant is still there, right?
Manisha: Basant still there?
Abhinandan: Oh, sorry. Before we said Basant is still there.
Manisha: Yeah.
Abhinandan: And our election coverage was not powered by any ads, whether was Sari ads or political party ads, which was powered by subscribers.
Because as you know, news laundry does not take ads of any type. So here's a QR code, you can scan it and pay to keep news free because our journalism and we believe all journalism should be public supported. 'cause if you leave it to political parties, governments and billionaires, it is highly unlikely that you will get public interest journalism.
You'll get government interest and corporate interest journalism. [00:21:00] So do your bit contribute to journalism the way BA had considered it should be funded, not by the ads of industrialists, by general people. So we have, I guess right now over about 20,000, 22,000 active subscribers. Let's hit 50,000, scan it, tell your friends, family, et cetera, pay to keep news free.
'cause when the public pays, the public is served when advertise, pay, uh, served. Yes. Mania over to you.
Manisha: So Bussan was at the, uh, JD office at 10 o'clock and I really like, he asked this one of the workers that Abbi, it was 10 30, so he said, Abbi. So he said,
this is why Bahar, I think is a favorite for so many reporters, because you can always get a good soundbite. And I really like this piece that Osh written in the runup that it may have nothing but has words. So anyway, he was there. Then he went to, uh, was trailing, so he was also at the RGD office. Uh, he's [00:22:00] gonna be there giving us live updates and he'll be on Churchill also,
Abhinandan: right?
Manisha: Where, so
Abhinandan: church will be live today as well, right
Manisha: in the run up to two a half times we've done and we had, uh, we had Vasu, we had, and both of them are actually told us pretty much what the results are showing,
Sobhana K Nair : right?
Manisha: With respect to Nish from 81 seats from 43 seats in 2020. They're leading 81 right now.
So that's almost doubled. And, uh, what Vasu had said that, you know, for the Alliance, the big problem is congress. And I think that's showing up in the results. Sure. And I think one sense that we were getting from all our reporters that even if, uh, you know, there was talk of anti incumbency or not, regardless of that, there was this sense of going with a known that even if people weren't enthusiastically excited about everything that's happened in the last 10 years, there were two factors in their mind.
One, the fear of jungle Raj coming back. And they just in that sense, has really had to fight that he, this whole election has been under the shadow of La Lu's, jungle [00:23:00] Raj, and all conversations have been around that. But for ish, I think this whole thing of somebody gave us decent governance, a known person, and a sense of going with.
You know, what is stable rather than upsetting things too much is what seems to have played out. But then again, I think if they've doubled it, then clearly there's something more happening there than just a sense of going with a known. Uh, but I think that's for his last election. I'm guessing this will be, Natasha's last election is quite a sendoff.
Abhinandan: I don't know. They were saying Ronaldo's last World Cup. They've been saying that for so long. Now he's 41.
Manisha: I dunno,
Abhinandan: he's threatening to play the next one. Also,
Manisha: what would be interesting for me to see, and I'm, I, I'm keen to know from an, and he's written quite a bit on ish, but clearly j d's comeback is something, but it would be sad if the party second line in the next four years doesn't come up because net I think this will be his last election.
But for a party that's not down and out, that's pretty much, you know, come [00:24:00] out of the election with these numbers. Despite all the things about, you know, health and anti incumbency, the, there has to be a second line, which you haven't really seen.
Anand : Okay. So, uh, before I comment on this, I would like to maybe in some other segment, like to comment on the media coverage of Bihar Pools and, uh, maybe before, uh, after we discuss the election results, take that we had his only words and nothing.
No,
Manisha: he didn't say only. He may not have much, but it does have to be fair to
Anand : him also. Uh, anyway, that's, I I have some, there is a also a kind of bihari who goes with the Dehi consensus.
Manisha: Must I just wanna add, Herena may join us in the next five minutes. She's here so. Okay. After. We should just go. [00:25:00] Alright.
Anand : Yes.
Manisha: You wanna come in
Anand : on what ti on
Manisha: ish?
Anand : Yes. See, uh, I think, uh, in the last chapter I had my, uh, dwelled on what, what's the place of ti in bihar's, uh, contemporary political history and from say, uh, not going to a long historical arc. He is, uh, say when social democracy and governance and development were put as two separate things in, uh, bihar's political narrative.
He, his achievement is that he said that social democracy, uh, empowerment of backward cast, uh. Can go with governance, also can go with development also. So it is not that, uh, uh, only Hmm. [00:26:00] He says because
that, that is one thing. So, uh, social democracy was not juxtaposed with, um, governance. Second, uh, thing is that his esp, like people speculate that why his, uh, uh, switches are condoned by the public because he, I think, uh, uh, because of his credibility, uh, of governance, tech, track, record and delivery of, uh, and he's a kind of politician who knows how to divide time between administration and pragmatic politics.
So administrative acumen and pragmatic real pol uh, po politic, uh, like manipulations and this, that, so, uh, I, I think, uh, a sld administrative mindset plus, [00:27:00] uh, uh, say political acumen has delivered di di dividends for him also. He is the maximizer. Of the space that he has of the EBC and that EBC of 36% votes, which, uh, solidly stands behind him, uh, gives him the confidence that he can add that to either of the combinations of the BGP or RJD and uh mm.
Be acceptable to either of the combinations and formations that are there. And that 36% also includes some minority votes because in the layered, uh, representation system, uh, there are past Manas and some Muslim say, EBC groups, which, uh, also vote for him. So when we say that 17%, uh, when RJD is, it starts with 31%, 14%, the others [00:28:00] and uh, say 17% Muslims.
But, uh, uh, first why some, uh, ceph go wrong also is that that 14% and 17% is not concentrated in one area, which will deliver you these seats. And these seats. So like has a large concentration of Muslim, uh, population, but it can deliver only a fixed number of assembly seats. And, uh. Uh, now, uh, among those Muslims also there are some cast groups, Paman and like who led that movement of paman from BHA only, uh, who aligned with JD maybe only two, 3% Muslims.
But they see, uh, him, that's why they get antagonized when he sides with VJP.
Abhinandan: But you know what you were saying, um, someone just pointed out that [00:29:00] while the drop in the voucher, the RRG D has been not very significant. I think it's less than 5% as of now. Mm-hmm. I mean, I dunno how it turns out. Mm. The drop in seats has been dramatic.
Yeah. So, uh, how to contest election on that marginal voter is something that the B-J-P-J-D combine has really mastered because it is a huge difference in the. Vote, share drop and the seat drop.
Manisha: What about
Anand : conversation? What, what happens is that, uh, means there are, I'll check a lot of explanations for that.
That if you consolidate 31% of say, um, Muslim adults, MI plus a few, like, uh, this time Mark, but when then, uh, try to like some similar words from the EBC and some, and so I been the keyword. So, uh, and this EBC is of 112 cast groups, and, uh, a lot of them have [00:30:00] one, less than 1% representation means a population.
So it's very difficult to say that, which, uh, the swing means if the largest, uh, re uh, population here is 2%. So, uh, once you breach. Demographic, uh, say this distribution, and you have a cross, uh, a bit of supporting different cast groups. Uh, you are seeing this kind of result because it has breached the demographic barriers, uh, uh, uh, because of some, say, appeal, some, uh, kind of, uh, welfare measures or, or a kind of wave you can say.
So it has breached that demographic barrier, and that's why the results are, uh, far beyond what psychologists predicted. Uh, once you get past one 50, you can achieve anything. So, uh,
Manisha: [00:31:00] well, right now it seems like do so par for N India, but sh is with us, so we should break
Abhinandan: Hina. Sorry to answer your question.
As of now, it says about 6.1%
Manisha: Congress
Abhinandan: total
Manisha: 6.1.
Abhinandan: So, which is also in line with the number of seats that they have. But welcome, sh. Uh, we cannot hear sh so we will just figure the audio for that.
Sobhana K Nair : I am sorry, I was on mute.
Abhinandan: Hi, how would you? Yes, I can hear you. Yes, you were on mute. Yes, we can hear you now.
Thank you. So, well, I guess it's pretty, uh, accurate as per is your, uh, what, what you had speculated when you wanna have the last but
Sobhana K Nair : a
Abhinandan: tooth margin
Sobhana K Nair : on numbers. Seats.
Abhinandan: Sorry.
Sobhana K Nair : Thank God. Thank God I stopped short of talking about the seats and just,
Abhinandan: so, um, as Manisha says, it's probably gonna cross 200, is that right?
Is that what you said? I
Manisha: mean, the leads
Abhinandan: at
Manisha: 201
Abhinandan: 99. Yeah. So, uh, did you make any trip back to [00:32:00] Bihar after we spoke a week before last, or have you been here since then?
Sobhana K Nair : No, no, I haven't been there. Okay. Yeah.
Abhinandan: So based on what you have been observing in your past, uh, experience, of course, I mean the son of the person on who you wrote the book has performed remarkably well.
Yes, it would've been a mistake to write him off as not being very politically smart when his father passed. But what do you, uh, think his spectacular success comes from? How many seats does he have as long? 21. 21. 21.
Sobhana K Nair : See, uh, let's talk basics first. Uh, he, he got 29 seats out of which 27 of the 29 seats were with the Maha Abundant in 2020.
So, uh, he was basically given the seeds, uh, which were not. Uh, with either the BJP or JU barring two. Um, one is par and go barring these two, all the seats were with the MJP, uh, and out of [00:33:00] the 21 seats that he's leading on 13 are were held by RJT in 2020. Uh, so he's actually sort of contributing to this, uh, close to 200 per, uh, seat tally of the, uh, a DA second, um, LGP since it's very beginning, the only time they have, uh, sort of reach anywhere close to this number was in, uh, the election that Anan just mentioned.
February of, uh, 2005 when, uh, ramble passed one, uh, did not make up his mind. He did not join any, he, he, he insisted that he will stay alone and he. Came up with various theories that he will have a Muslim chief minister or he will stay, he doesn't want either RJD or the other side, um, government and, and, and, and that was when they won 29 seats.
So this is in fact, during the negotiations, uh, [00:34:00] LJP, uh, uh, Ramala wanted more seats, but when BGP offered them 29, now I was told that they agreed for 29 because they felt there is some emotional connect to the NU figure 29 because that was the highest tally they've ever had, uh, in Bihar assembly. So those are the basics.
And the other one basic thing is that it is for me, the results are very interesting because this is the first time JDU and LJP are fighting the assembly elections together. They haven't ever fought it on the same side. And as Anan was just talking about how, uh, Kumar. Sort of taken past ones outside of, had, had put past ones outside the Maha, um, circle.
So there was, um, a lot of anger against, um, uh, ish pawan. And, and that is why for a minute. Uh, Chi Pawan was also mulling on contesting the assembly [00:35:00] election. And as I had said in the last HTA for reasons better known to him, he decided not to contest. But my suspicion is that he was told by the BJP that to ensure that, uh, there is no confusion within the alliance the way the I.
And there's no repeat of 2020. He should stay away because already this is, if you remember, there were questions being raised on whether Nish Kumar will continue in the Chief Minister's position or not. So had they had drag person also contested, then that would've created another poll and would've had it added to the confusion and probably the results would have been slightly different, uh, and not good for the NDA.
So I guess they worked hard to remove all sorts of confusion and all sorts of problems. So that is one.
Abhinandan: So just quickly, uh, do you have any views and has a PK said anything since the [00:36:00] Raj party? I was trying to find if, if you have any data on the, which we don't right now. I
No,
but is it a surprise that he didn't even get one seat, or No?
Not Has he, has, he. Has he even impacted any seat? Is there any scientific and credible way of knowing this? I mean, speculation is also fine, it's entertaining. But is there any scientific way of actually knowing that? Honestly, I speculation. Also entertaining. What the hell? But can we know that? Has he. Any seats.
Sobhana K Nair : Yeah, I, I, I, it is not a surprise to me that, uh, uh, gens did not get even a single seat. I expected, uh, very, I expected the, these results for gens, farash, uh, uh, as I had said earlier, also, there was a lot of disinterest in Raj in the rural, uh, reaches of Bihar. Uh, the, there was a lot of distrust also. There was questions being [00:37:00] asked that where is he getting so much money to put up such a big campaign?
Because his yellow, uh, vans were crisscrossing the state. So obviously people know that it costs money. And there were questions being the electorate was asking questions. I'm not talking about the, uh, uh, various political leaders or outfits. And, uh, uh, there was distress, there was indifference to him. The candidates were not familiar.
Uh, in many places they did not even know. Recognize the symbol, uh, gen Surah symbol. Now these are the parameters which, uh, one must always look to see how popular or how far the party has reached. So, uh, they would scratch their heads for a very long time and say
third or fourth person will say, so obviously. At least in the rural areas, it was not, it did not, uh, carry the same recognition and same weight, of course in urban areas. It did have some, there was some [00:38:00] interest around Raj, especially among those people who wanted an option, who were looking for an option.
And RJD was not an option for them. But I am not sure, um, I think it is too early to say that,
Abhinandan: whether he impact.
Sobhana K Nair : Yeah.
Abhinandan: But before we come to Anna, I would just like to say whether he wins or not, and I'm not being facetious. I mean this genuinely, I think he is doing a great service to the nation by charging exorbitant fees to political parties as a consultant and then spending it on printers, Shaki, Luka, and whatever.
It's a distribution. It's like, it's like bad business ideas in the, in 1999, 2000, you know, the.com bust, you know, all sorts of people raised, you know. Dozens of crows from VCs and hired fresh graduates, paid them shitloads of money. So it was a way of taking money from billionaires and then redistributing it.
So I don't, I think it's a service, even if he [00:39:00] continues to be politically active without winning seats, as long as the consultant to political parties, it's a way of getting money back into the system. And I don't see that much wrong in it. Uh, anyway, on, on, on, uh, the surprise, and also, I don't even know if in urban areas he was that big a deal.
He was only a big deal on, I think YouTube and, and stuff. I don't know.
Sobhana K Nair : Yeah. So somebody told me, I'm sorry, I'm sorry to interrupt, but somebody told me very great light.
Anand : Yes. But Miss, uh, that happens when the advertising agency, uh, thinks that it is the product itself. Mm. So, uh, but what, uh. Been playing a role if the result was not result was an NDA win, but not this landslide. My assessment was that if he could [00:40:00] cut MGV votes, Margaret Bunin votes, he would be absorbing a bit of anti incumbency, which would have otherwise gone to say those votes would've gone to Maan.
Song : Mm-hmm.
Anand : He would have absorbed some anti incumbency votes and that would have benefited NDA.
Abhinandan: Sure.
Anand : But in the current, uh, trend, I, I don't think that he has even played that role.
Abhinandan: Mm.
Anand : So, but we'll have to look at the per what percentage that he got in d uh, different seats. So that was, uh, but, uh, uh, I think.
Uh, one of, of course, people know that he's a man of bombast and, uh, sometimes comes across as a gas bag because his campaign is more of talking down to people that as if some say convent school, cousins come to your house and, uh, you are [00:41:00] studying in a government school and, uh. You don't know this. You don't know this, this, this is, this is trans, this is transparency.
This is, yeah, this is that. This is diagnostic politics. This is there and talking down to people, uh, and in a, so first he, uh, he, but it's also, uh, kind of opportunity for him because the opposition, uh, space with this results would be wide open and if he gets entrenched. So, uh, uh, electoral politics is also a matter of entrenchment.
So if he gets entrenched and stays there. He could be a challenger to te uh, two zu style of politics, and Tewe would be on two. Then, uh, despite his demographic, uh, say cushion of 31% vote. So, uh, that that is a role that he can, but, uh, he has [00:42:00] made such a kind of, uh, bizarre statements that if JDU wins 25 seats, I will resign from politics and resign.
So, uh, so Vince, why you are so bombastic for few,
Manisha: but I now, since he's a politician, he,
Abhinandan: yeah.
Manisha: Can say this and get into this.
Abhinandan: No, but
Manisha: no, he's not a political consultant. We'll say
Abhinandan: no, but I think that is just one thing in politics. Bombast, you show me a non bombastic politician, I will show you a pumpkin that is square.
It is inevitable. And this talking down, people talk down in different ways. Some say I'm. Too well educated for you. Some say U City folk don't know what the rule for what everybody has their own bombast. I don't think any politician, and this not resigning, if people were to resign, if the prediction didn't come true am which I would've resigned work 20 times before every election in any state area, which I said this will.
So I think that is in, yeah, that is inevitable because that is, you have to show your, you can't say
Manisha: he has a bit of a baggage of political consult. [00:43:00] So people tend to look at his predictions as, okay, it's coming from somewhere, but now he's a politician.
Anand : He. Speech is of a politician with a difference. Hmm.
So, uh, he ha uh, so people's expectation is not of a run of a male politician from him. It's that, uh, he carries a certain, uh, at least his only political capital would be credibility. So I think he should have, he does that also for views and, uh, maintenance. The person who gave no interviews is at two, almost 200, and who gave 250 interviews is at zero.
So, uh, because that is his weight in, as he said, phone, smartphones, this, that.
Abhinandan: So, uh, the future of RJD, the second generation clearly hasn't turned out to be lalu plus plus. They don't have the charisma of lalu. In fact, the only memorable part of the RJ D is some, [00:44:00] both the brothers are in the same mall or something.
That was very emotional moment, that the last time my father hugged me was when the light went or something like that. But you, RJ
Manisha: D is boat share. I just wanna say is 22 right now. 22.92%.
Abhinandan: So you think, uh, they need a non, uh, lalu family leader to revive the RJD? Or you think these boys still have it or this boy still has it in him?
Sobhana K Nair : I will, uh, our politics will be blessed if we don't have, uh, uh, families taking a party. I mean, from one generation to the other, controlling the party from one generation to the other. But that is not the case. And let's not look for, uh, things that we don't have in our hand. I would not write off stages via, I would not write off RGD as Manisha just pointed out.
If you were to compare it with the 2020 election. Uh, his vote share has not, uh, dipped drastically. I think, uh, if I'm not wrong, in 2020, he, um, the RRGs vote [00:45:00] share was, uh, 23.11, and now I believe it is, you said Manisha, it was 22 or so.
Manisha: 22.8.
Sobhana K Nair : Yeah. So that's, that's, that's says very marginal. Uh, yeah, it's very.
Yeah, there's no, the seed conversion has not happened. Now, seed conversion, there can be several reasons why the woodshed does not convert into seed because of this 400 year old first pass post system that we are burdened with it. This is, it is a result of, uh, you know, this kind of result is a result of that first pass post system.
Uh, RRG d did make several mistakes. First of all, they took the election for granted. This was a very curious election with very short window for campaign. And even in that short window, the, their squabbling within the Maha, uh, took far greater amount of time. And what actually, more than the rrg [00:46:00] d uh, makes me a little curious is why did they concede deputy chief Minister's position to mohani who is nowhere in the results?
Hmm. See, the thing is they always knew and they were right.
Abhinandan: He's still trailing, right? No,
Sobhana K Nair : he
Anand : didn't
Sobhana K Nair : contest. He, he didn't contest.
Abhinandan: But sorry, who's the deputy chief Minister you said who's trailing when we started? No, he is, I'm not is okay. He's sorry. Wrong number. Sorry, go ahead.
Sobhana K Nair : No, so VIP is not leading as far as the election commission figures are concerned.
Yeah. VIP is not leading on any seat. And yet the Maha uh, arranged a press conference where they first announced Asho was flown in from Delhi to partner to announce ma Uht SV as their chief ministerial phase. Uh, and then they also added that we'll have Ani as our deputy Chief ministerial face, [00:47:00] which I thought was hilarious.
I mean, you don't even have results in your distributing portfolios, which is bizarre beyond bizarre. Now the question is that, that it, it, this decision was, it came from the realization that while RJ has, uh, Muslim and, uh, the captive vote bank, so to speak, they need that extra push to cover the last mile to the chief ministers plo.
In the last two election, RRG D has been the. Single largest party, 2015 and 2020. So, but, but, but the issue is that this push to reach out to j d's voters, uh, the extremely backward class was done in such a superficial manner. Uh, the Maha Abundant has 29 fielded, 29 extremely backward class candidates while, uh, NDA had 39.
So you should, you should put your money [00:48:00] where you know, you, you should have acted on your, uh, this thing properly and you should have done something about it. And also, Mukesh sahan a word for mu. They believe that just by projecting mu ki as the Deputy Chief ministerial candidate, they will be able to swing not just the Maah, uh, they'll also be, it, it'll have a domino impact on the other, um, extra EBC, uh, voters, uh, including Nisha, uh, bin and, and a lot of other, the entire group of voters.
That did not happen, and there is a reason why. See, Ani got around six flag votes in 2020 elections. He won four seats in the 2020 elections because Hannis, the Manah are naturally inclined towards the. Uh, BJP or the NDA and when I was in Ang to report, uh, to just assess, to ask the voters on exactly what they felt about Hannis, Hanni is, uh, Mui still remains a very vague, uh, [00:49:00] uh, figure.
He's, no, he's not, people aren't familiar with him. They know him that age of 19. He left, he worked in Bombay for. Years. They claim that he worked, uh, at the sets of Baja and several other big, big designer projects. Yeah. As a set designer, I don't have any confirmation on that, but, um, he's, he's not somebody who attends the, the funeral or marriages or birthday celebrations of his electorate.
The electorate does not know him organically. He's, again, much like Rahan KiOR of media creation. A person who people were very enamored, especially, I would even blame the English media for projecting him. Uh, so much so, so, so, you know, the, so somewhere the seat conversion from vote [00:50:00] to seat conversion did not happen because rrg d did not have support of these additional, you need the chorus singers to, you know.
For the symphony. There were no chorus singers in this case
Abhinandan: as far as media creation is concerned. I mean, I, I, I really don't know what that word means anymore because the media creations could win or lose. I mean, as far as I'm concerned, I mean, when I just see, uh, some of the tweets of the journalists where the excitement and the glee of b JB victory from the predictable channels is because their livelihoods depend on b JB coming back to power.
Uh, not that they wouldn't flip. If the BJP didn't come back to power, they would start sucking up to whoever did. 'cause that's where the economics depends. Uh, many of these guys who used to, uh, suck up to the UPA. Uh, and as far as I'm concerned, Muslim Modi is a media creation. I think Naisha, everyone's who Arvin is a media, everyone's a media creation.
I think if the media creation wins, then all is good. If the media creation loses, then it's a media [00:51:00] creation, but. Managing media is the number one, uh, you know, priority of every politician. Which
Manisha: one? Yeah, actually one of the things, I guess it is, but the media creation with no ground game would be nothing.
Guess that's she means.
Abhinandan: Yeah, but I think, I
Manisha: mean, like an app would need to be on the ground with its card in Delhi, while Ivan can also be everywhere in studio. So similarly, Modi can do all the media, but ss has to be on the ground. So
Abhinandan: I guess, yeah, you have to accomplish the two. But, um, as far as, uh, one thing you said, I just won ask.
You said that the Sunni, the community has a natural affinity towards the BJP. Is there like a sociological reason and economic reason or what is it? Or, or they've had a prominent leader from the BJP. Why is there a natural affinity and then it'll come to Anan? I,
Sobhana K Nair : yeah, so, um, they did it, uh, I mean, see ARDS were represented by Captain, um, RA and Nihar, but I am not very, I don't know the reason.
This is just an observational, that's
Abhinandan: just historically how it's been. [00:52:00]
Sobhana K Nair : Yeah, I mean, this is just an observation, anecdotal thing. Maybe it's worth, uh, exploring, but at least when I went to Theban and other parts and reached out specifically to the Sahani voters. And, um, uh, one of the things that I regularly do is to ask, well, who rather than who ask who they are voting for?
Now this election, I ask about who they voted in the previous elections and, uh, a majority of them had voted for the NDA. So, uh, I'm not sure about maybe aan would that better?
Anand : Yeah. So, uh, my point is that Nisha, uh, the maah are not very much aligned to BJP, but they're aligned as an, as a part of the EBC to JDU in certain pockets.
Um, uh, also, uh, like, uh, uh, in the nineties and Lalo era, the non other OBCs and EBCs were ignored. So, uh. It is created this new [00:53:00] constituency of EBC that is 36%. That includes even Muslim, uh, EBCs. Now, uh, this man comes, uh, who, who, who, whose, uh, caste group population is around 200, 2.6%, which is, uh, or 2.5 also, which is among the highest in the 112 sub cast groups within the EBCs.
So even at 2.6, he is a sizable chunk and he has a capacity, not he, but, uh, whoever leads Mullar has a capacity to influence KS bins. So even if you like RJs strategies, RJs strategy was to take away. A bit of EBC votes. Even if they could consolidate malas and say bins or, uh, say, uh, keywords, it would have been 4%, which would have [00:54:00] have given some bump to their 31% to consolidated.
But in this kind of, uh, election scenario, which of course they could not have predicted, that is also immaterial. Uh, also when, so I don't think it's a very accurate parallel, but yeah. Others in we are have other, uh, though they are ob they are in, uh, lot of regions, the dominant caste, like s in Ariana. So, uh, and, uh, they are, they migrate very less, they are beneficiaries of the land reforms, the absentee landlords, and, uh.
Whatever, uh, sixties and seventies Green Revolution brought to Behar, it brought very little but uh, land, uh, ceiling reorganization. So there landlords and these EVC cast grow maas. These, they see the other as [00:55:00] adversary and two, uh, the arithmetic must may match, but the chemistry is not there. Mm. So arithmetic the ma.
But, uh, they are their social adv adversaries, uh, in ruler pockets, which is around 89% of
Manisha: like Bs, p and p. When they came together, that's what first said that you may come together on ground, you are adversaries each
Abhinandan: nstitute. So there's a bunch of bis also happening. Uh, Tarran, Punjab app is ahead to the ceremony.
Ali, uh, the K is ahead, I think in Jubilee Hills. At least they were this morning. Um, and Dave ran is ahead as well on the VJP and Anta, promote Jen of the Congress as leading. And the second is Marh Mina, who's actually an independent. This is Rahan.
Manisha: Nija is gonna join us in the next five minutes. So [00:56:00] maybe we should go to for her last
Abhinandan: Yes.
Manisha: Comments.
Abhinandan: Any, your last comments. What now? For Bihar, the 10,000 repeaters, uh,
Manisha: and the C candidates,
Abhinandan: they can't change now. That too much.
Sobhana K Nair : Yeah. So, uh, it's a, it's a good, um, there are a few of course in the run up to the elections, Maharastra, the example of Mara was brought up. Multiple times, uh, in Bihar that, um, that even if the NDA was to win, uh, they will remove the Kumar from the chief minister's seat. And I see the selection from two posters, uh, one poster that, uh, JDU put up, uh, before the campaign started, but.
Yellow posters at the JDU headquarters in Putnam. So obviously that reflected the anxiety of JDU, that, uh, it was, uh, it was an expression of anxiety and [00:57:00] also simultaneously the assertion that you need to keep this man in chair. The fact that his chair, and I believe that, uh, the fact that, uh, there was speculation, uh, about BJP sort of easing him out of the chair has contributed to the results because that kind of made the electorate, uh, uh, I mean, it did contribute.
I, I'm not saying that is the only reason, but it did contribute because that somehow made the electorate, um, uh, feel it won him sympathy words. It, it brought sympathy for him as an upright leader, as a person. Uh, with a personal integrating with, uh, uh, less saint and a familiar face, a face that they are, uh, comfortable with, uh, they did not see any other person replacing in as, as a individual.
So, um, and the other, uh, thing is Lucky Behe Ner a lot of comparison between the [00:58:00] mu three scheme and the La Muah Yona and the Laki Baki. However, there is one big difference. The Laki BA was a monthly payout and has a greater impact on the finances of the state. While this was just a onetime payout of 10,000.
And then they're saying that if you are, if you're successfully invested, we'll give you two lags. But the, the criteria, the parameters on, on which this success will be assessed has not been released. So. And therefore this also had an impact. By the way, this has, it, it contributes 4% of the annual budget of, uh, bha.
The, uh, so I don't see, yeah, I don't see BJP easing him out immediately. But, uh, and the second poster, the second bookending poster is, which came up yesterday, tiger nda. I [00:59:00] think the, so that kind of between the story of Bihar election is between these two posters. Uh, the, so I don't think BGP will find it easy to ease him out just yet, unless, until he himself decides to call, uh, hang his boots or into his, uh, illness.
And of course, the, then the greater question is who will lead JDU, uh, ahead and it will JDU in its present form survive. Those are the questions worth pondering over.
Abhinandan: Alright. Thank you so much Shana, for your time. Thank you so much. Once again, we'll plug your book. Those of you who haven't already, you can uh, click on the link below and pick up Nan's book, the Weather Vein of Indian Politics, Ram, last Past One.
Clearly the Sun too seems to have cracked that, uh, ability. They're
Sobhana K Nair : two very different beings by the way. The father and son are very, very different people. [01:00:00]
Abhinandan: Yes, we shall discuss in detail another time, but thank you so much. Have a fantastic
Manisha: Dayia is gonna join us. We go into a little break, a one minute break and come back and India a is now at 201.
So yes, but there's
Abhinandan: not an ad. See this is not an ad break, it's a reporting break 'cause we don't take ads. Right. So you can scan this QR code and pay to keep News. Three
Manisha: News laundry. A
Abhinandan: news laundry. Go ahead.
Teaser : Contribute.
K[01:01:00]
kidnapping the.[01:02:00] [01:03:00]
This is what
household for government.[01:04:00]
I will afford.
I know how to do it. I have good power and I have vision. I'll do it
involved in.
Is he convicted?
He is carrying forward the legacy of his late mother who was a notorious,
a political allegation, but the fact is [01:05:00] in four different cases by the courts,
you've been asking the same old question which people have been asking since age. Just that thing new you've been asking to
zero factor zero.
Abhinandan: Okay, so we are back with the element of surprise and we are not just back with the element of surprise for you, but surprise. As Manisha just demonstrated. You're surprised at what Manisha,
Manisha: I'm surprised that they just went back to trailing again.
Abhinandan: So it's going up and down.
Manisha: Yeah. So Ish Kumar is leading now with 40,000 mos and they just visit at 36.
Abhinandan: So we are back live. Hafta special. Live hafta, which is why we have to be very careful 'cause we cannot edit out Nans,
Manisha: how language
[01:06:00] families watching.
Abhinandan: But we are joined by a new panelist, veteran, journalist, commentator, observer, political, um, you know, uh, what should I say? Columnist and also author. Par Exelon, uh, Nija. Welcome. Nija. Thank you so much joining us. Thank you. I'm always, always very grateful that you make time for small show like ours. Uh, so you were saying before we came outta the break.
That, um, you saw ish with new Eyes this time, although you've known him for decades, uh, can you explain what new eyes, what, what is about him that you hadn't observed earlier?
Neerja : You know, we've known that, uh, after the Lalu Reign mm-hmm. Both ish Kumar and, uh, Lalu dominated the politics of Bihar. For the last 35 years, they've ruled Behar, both belongs to the [01:07:00] backward classes, both have given new, uh, voice to the backward classes and the marginalized sections, dignity that they did not have.
These were communities that were on the periphery LA to the OBCs and Kumar, uh, to the extremely backward amongst them, to the backward, amongst the Dali, and he created this new category called the Maha to the backwards among the Muslims, calling the the Muslims so that they have both done Lalu rule degenerated into what is called the jungle Raj.
Mm-hmm. Kidnappings Extortions, no safety. I visited Bihar in, in those days when his brothers-in-law, you know, ruled the roost.
Sobhana K Nair : Mm.
Neerja : And, uh, people were terrified. You, you had, I remember one instance where cars were taken off from the showroom just picked up and people would go, people would come to a flat and say, just get out virtually.
So that kind of absolute jungle garage Kumar [01:08:00] took over. And I remember going weeks after he'd taken over and near Gandhi, Madan, I saw families having ice cream together at 1130 at night. So that was the kind of change. And he told, uh, uh, bureaucrats and they were recalling it this time saying. I want governance, governance and governance.
Now, he's failed in some things. He's succeeded in something. And then of course, women have been a very important constituency of his, uh, right from 2005 when he took over in, uh, Alliance with the BJP broke with Lalu. And, uh, then they, he formed his own party in Alliance with 2000, uh, in 2005. And then he did many flip flops.
Now, when you sit in Delhi, you look at these flip flops in a very different way. Here's a very opportunist. Politician who's, whoever makes him cm, he goes there, his CM is suddenly switched side, which he did in 2015. He went with LADA [01:09:00] and they won the election very convincingly. 1 67 out of 2 43 seats. And then 2017 he flipped and he went to BJP.
Again, 2022 he flipped yet again and came back to the MA 2024, he again did a flip flop and went to, uh, the BJP and he remains with the BGP. But you know, as some people have pointed out, what is this led to? It has led to him keeping his relevance in a situation. He's kept his opponent the, or the RJD in check.
They, they could never have an absolute majority and yet retain the value of ya, the yada family.
Abhinandan: Mm-hmm.
Neerja : Otherwise, those yas would've gravitated to the bjp.
Abhinandan: And this is something that you kind of, it all came together when you went and met him this time
Neerja : and, and he kept the BJP check. Mm-hmm. [01:10:00] It couldn't become a party, majority party on its own, which is his dream project today.
It may do so in the, in the year because he gave very clear instructions to the bureaucrats, any communal configuration and you must come down on it heavily. So if you, if you go through Bihar today, there is no anti-Muslim sentiment in behalf of the kind you see inh.
Abhinandan: And they did not even make that as an issue in this
Neerja : election and they have not been able to.
So ish Kumar with his, he's the smaller player amongst the three, uh, uh, RJD. Nish Kumar and the BJP. Any two of them join Han they from the government.
Abhinandan: Right. But he is indispensable. So I guess that's in a sense true for any political party, not from the two big parties. Congress still I'm ing them party, but
Neerja : in his case, being the smaller partner, he's played his card so astutely that he has managed to stay chief minister, whichever government he has, and [01:11:00] yet managed to keep BP in check it's communal HIN agenda in check.
He's managed to keep RRG in check as far as governance and things well yet retain, as I say, the importance and relevance of the family.
Abhinandan: Would you say that's true to an extent for, uh, uh, manta and uh, the national conference as well? I mean, they have allied with. The BJP, uh, part of NDA part of UPA, you think that's inevitable
Neerja : for anyone?
Yeah, they have, they have on and off, they have done that, but this is a story of 20 long years.
Abhinandan: He's been consistent in his inconsistency
Neerja : and he's managed these contradictions. The, uh, uh, very senior, uh, congress leader in partner told me this time, he said, you know, I, I haven't met. As a student leader as Kumar.
Hmm. And I, I also began to look at this phenomenon in a slightly different light than I had been doing. 'cause once saw him Yes. Concentrating on [01:12:00] women, on, uh, dignity, on governance, on, and if you, he has, whether it's infrastructure, whether it is IITs, whether there's a Bihar museum
Manisha: Yes.
Neerja : That everybody's so proud of.
The
Manisha: Bihar Museum is spectacular. I believe that's the best museum in, in, it's the best museum in the country. Really? Yeah.
Neerja : And people say, you know, now they're going, other states are going to be hard to learn how, how to do it. Yeah.
Abhinandan: And who did that? Do we know?
Neerja : This is an,
but he gave them Ish, had this vision, gave him a free hand.
Abhinandan: But, you know, talking safety, I mean, who was the chief in 2003? In, in wi between 2002. I remember I had gone to shoot an ad, uh, in Bera. They were a very large infrastructure construction company who does refineries, power plants, pipelines. They were drilling a pipeline below.
Uh, Bera is near the Ganges, so they were drilling a pipeline below the river bed. [01:13:00] Uh, and I was to make an ad that's spectacular. You know,
Anand : Baroni, that is Bari Indian Wild.
Abhinandan: Uh, yeah, of course the, but the company that was doing it, it was an infrastructure company which was been outsourced that job and had to get the sunrise shot.
So, and there was this, I dunno how the situation is now, but there was this one really beat up hotel, which is about four kilometers from the venue. And uh, I was waiting, I woke up at four cameramen, we were all ready and the car was supposed to pick us up so I can set up and get the sunrise while the drilling is happening and you get the dramatic shot.
And I didn't wanna spend more than one day there. So if I miss the sunrise shot, bloody, I have to invade the next day again. So I waiting, waiting time guard. So there were these pats with this plank, the, it was like this flat wooden thing they were. So I just flagged on of them down, give 50 bucks, loaded all my equipment there.
I said, just take us to where this drilling is happening. I can get my [01:14:00] shot. I went there, took my shot, came back to the hotel, you know, packed up stuff. Went to partner, took the flight, came here. When I came here, the head office called me. I was summoned that you caused a security lapse.
Song : Yeah,
Abhinandan: I was Sorry, what security labs you took?
You know, one car worth of equipment, cameras, cameras is too expensive. Back then, you didn't wait for the car. I was like, dude, I was losing the sun. The sunrise would've gone. Where would I get the shot? Uh, they said, you know, one week ago the project engineer was shot. I said, I'll tell you that I, before I went to shoot the ad, said, because you have to, you know, pay for everything.
So that realize how, uh, you know, paranoid people are of security over there. But yeah, that, that was a bad term. But, uh, Anan, you have, uh, you know, consistently been an admirer of his politics and his ability to remain relevant. Uh, net enough has been said about him. I wanna pick one more prominent leader and give me a little bit about him because we have [01:15:00] this time and last time LA's relevance or we saw of p at length.
Anyone else who is significant for a good reason or bad reason, and Behar who has not been given enough air time so far.
Anand : Uh, not given time by
Abhinandan: in discussion, like, you know, p has been done, discussed, net has been discussed. They just need to an extent. I mean, Lalu is, is he someone even an aspect or is there someone else who we think is, is someone who needs some attention but is not given enough?
Anand : I think, uh, Sanja the
right hand now.
Abhinandan: Okay.
Anand : And, uh, there would be some power t with, uh, ti uh, uh, declining health. Mm. Uh uh, people say that Sanja and he would not be. Having the political eligibility for SA chief, um, [01:16:00] a very big role because, uh, of, uh, the cast group he comes from. Um, but, uh, the tactical part, the strategic part, um, he does I and, uh, ing now and, um, in bha, uh, there is, uh, a lot of talk about the, these two being the, um, front runners of back room.
Management of NI's party now, and there is, uh, talk of some tension between them because, uh, uh, one of NI's achievement is that he has not been diagnostic and none, he has not promoted any of his family members. So, uh. And that also is true in contrast, when you had this image of when the, uh, this, uh, work Jodi Rally was happening.
Teaser : Mm-hmm.
Anand : They just, [01:17:00] we a dynast, Raul Gandhi and Stallion, they were there and. They were supposedly taking on ese who, who, who the party pitch that he is. Someone who has not promoted any, all these theory are descendants of, uh, one political dynasty or other. So anyway, so I think Sanjay Ha and Lan Singh would be some, uh, two figures to watch out for, not for their, uh, say very prominent role in, uh, positions of office.
Mm-hmm. But backroom dealing, ti says governance style is very bureaucratic. He is not a safe, flamboyant auditor or this, he is very organizational and, and as I said earlier, he's a kind of leader who knows how to divide time between administration details and real politic. So,
Abhinandan: and both the leaders you mentioned, do they have enough of a sway over their party card?
[01:18:00] That,
Anand : and that is the tussle that, that, that is the tussle. Also, they don't come from caste groups, which is, ti is a stronghold like the EBC and, uh, so they don't come from that. But ti has, uh, been dependent on them for quite some time now. And, uh, but ti also works through his handpicked bureaucrats. And there, there is a lot of talking, but now about two, three bureaucrats who are running the, in the estate for the last four, five years.
And,
Abhinandan: but somehow that doesn't. Come to, you know, impact him negatively, like it did Naveen Babu. But, uh, how about you Nija and then we'll get to Manisha and Manisha then you please take this discussion forward 'cause you have more experience on elections. I just have experience in telling jokes, but, uh, who else are, you know, politicians in Bihar who one should look at a little more seriously [01:19:00] than just let's say ish.
And like we've said that, you know, Pika got way more air time than the vote check kind of justifies
Neerja : you see Ish is this is a tribute election. People of Bihar expressing as they themselves, as
Abhinandan: we were just saying, nidra before you came. People have say, been saying this about Ronaldo and Messi for the last two, but they're still, it seems they don't want to go, so we dunno yet.
Neerja : But generally that was like the ground level voices, you know, whether it was women and others feeling Yes bore,
many people would say that, and I think that was the dominant kind of thing, but I one didn't expect this kind of a sweep.
Manisha: Right.
Neerja : I'm surprised
Manisha: by,
Neerja : I mean, I'm not seeing this kind of a pro incumbency wave at all in India, despite after 20 years of rules. It's unprecedented. Yes. You've had Navin Babu, but I don't think he ever had this kind of [01:20:00] a wave.
You've had Bud. Yes. They
Manisha: stayed in power for a very long time. Uh, but not, so why do you that is, and how do you explain Bjps 90? Like, okay, so ish there's this sentimental thing of, you know, he's done well and we want, like you said, it's a send off. It's emotional, it's a sentimental kind of a, but bjp 90 up from 73 last time, how much were they?
Song : Yeah,
Manisha: 74.
Song : 74.
Manisha: Because a lot of reporters, at least who are coming in, were saying that there is some dissatisfaction with the bjp. They aren't really happy with the kind of work the MLAs have done. But
Abhinandan: I mean,
Manisha: clearly here it's 90 means
Abhinandan: that they, if if you ask me, of course, the, everyone's very coy to say this because it is not considered, I mean, every election is a not a level playing field.
I think whether it's money, power, and we know in India it's fought by money. Power Mai is not possible here. Uh, so that is a big. Impact in any election in Delhi. I, I believe BJP would no have won Delhi unless they have the kind of money they did, [01:21:00] I think, and
Manisha: they didn't go big with
Abhinandan: Mo these
Manisha: phase.
Abhinandan: But I think a lack of level playing field has a lot to do with bjps victories across the country.
And you know, people are shy to say to it's S grapes, shark grapes. It is not that, you know, you have to be a complete moron. Not to think that a lack of level playing field is a huge plus for the BJP in a level playing field. I highly suspect that they would get anywhere close to numbers that they get right now.
Other than that, there may be other reasons, but that is a significant reason in my view.
Neerja : I think there's another, uh, two other factors. You know, ish Kumar is a generic term. I, when I went to villages and asked, who are they voting for? Kumar, this was mu women who were at the bottom of the Dali and who was the candidate in the constituency?
It belonged. He belonged to Ram party. Similarly, even if there was a ham candidate of Ji Manji party, or there was even a BP candidate, Kumar was there for them. You know, like [01:22:00] he represented it. Secondly, this alliance of the NDA has been very effective this time. They worked well, uh, unlike the Maan, which started off late, which had differences between Raul Gandhi and, uh, the SV other, and they left it very late to sort them out and to declare the SV was a chief ministerial face here.
Um, you know, uh, uh, last time Chirag passed, one was outside the. Alliance. He fought, uh, uh, ish Kumar, and he, uh, destroyed him and damaged him in 28 constituencies in 2020. He didn't, he didn't hurt the, and ish Kumar was very unhappy with this, you know, that he targeted him. He himself won only one seat, but he
Manisha: damaged.
Neerja : But he damaged. So, I mean,
Manisha: and now
Abhinandan: he's back in bjp. To get them to work together is
also,
Neerja : so now for him to be there and that Dali work to get consolidated, you have the past one community, which is not part of the ali. [01:23:00] You have the Musha community, the Maji, and you have others, PA or different kinds of communities, maybe even SA section of them, though they were, some of them were looking at the MA then, but that has got consolidated.
The, the late apart from the A, B, C and ish Kumar went to the homes of two politicians at the time of Shut Chi passed. One was one of them. And they've obviously helped each other. Okay. In this election. Shi Pass one, if you say be hard to look for. I would say Shirac Pass one. Really? He's
Manisha: the real star of this election.
Song : Hmm.
Manisha: And with the Alliance also, like in every election we see the NDA comes together and India Alliance. I think, and I, maybe Raman should come in because he's been quite quiet, but India is, there's this always friendly fight. There's always this till the last minute, there's an unease in terms of seat sharing, deputy cm, and that seems to be playing out.
So. In [01:24:00] terms of,
Raman : for me as an outsider, uh, the biggest takeaway, the state where the fault lines are so deep, I mean, the cast is so important. I think Nish ability to, uh, you know, identify women as the largest, you know, minority in a way, largest mon uh, you know, marginalized community. That is something very great.
And he nurtured it so well Since 2005, he, I mean, he came up with the bicycle idea, then he came up, uh, you know, with the, I mean, latest is 10,000 rupees, you know, in giving two 1.47 women. So I think this is, this has played a bigger role, and especially in this election also, I think 71% of the. Women had pulled their, cast their votes.
So, so I think, uh, this is the biggest takeaway for me
Neerja : and 9% more than males, male, that's happened for the first time.
Anand : Those figures are like this. So, uh, [01:25:00] in absolute numbers, they, that is four lack votes voters more because, uh, before this election, women voters were 5% less. So first they came even with the mail.
And, uh, in absolute numbers, 2.47 male voters voted and 2.51 women voters voted. So in absolute numbers, this, uh, increases of four lack voters, which is substantial. Hmm. Uh, uh, but, uh, you, they have, uh, say first got even with the mail, and then 4%. So then, then they say the configuration. Oh. Uh, to, to add to some of the points.
See, uh, first is, uh, um, uh, there is, uh, I would not go very back in history, but one thing is important that, uh, many people start, uh, the social justice [01:26:00] movement and this backward, uh, political backward cast political empowerment movement from nineties. But actually, um, it was the incomplete work of seventies of Kaul Ha and, uh, Lalu, uh, uh, say ripped dividends of it with a consolidation of the ADA and, uh, Muslim consolidation.
And I am repeating it. Mm-hmm. I think third time or fourth, but, uh, uh, but EBC creation and this. You can say that, uh, to oversimplify it a bit, that Lao's, uh, role was that of an enabler, but, uh, political capital is of a provider. So, uh, he and his, uh, administrative imagination, as Ramson was pointed, pointing out that [01:27:00] women vote, uh, people see dolls, uh, this, but he has a very systematic architecture for it.
The, and some of that. Turned out to be ordinary women who turned out to be his campaigners. Ika did this. This is a help group. Network of 11 lack help self-help groups. 11. Lack self-help groups. Across Bihar, which involves around two corrupt women, and they are non-political campaigners for him.
Song : Mm-hmm.
Anand : A kind of, and, uh, second thing here is what people miss out.
Some of his things have been copied by UPA, copied by NDA people. Since he is in partner, his imprint on national policy making is underrated. First, direct, when direct. Cash transfer. He did [01:28:00] it for bicycles much before UPA got. And
Abhinandan: you had mentioned that also so that he can insulate himself from acquisition contract.
Anand : Second, uh, second, this, uh, the Modi government, uh, hardcore knowledge now the water pipelines, he, he has implemented it many years ago. It was, uh, then there are many other schemes like, uh, ban, but
Neerja : nobody
Raman : but
Anand : I
Women architecture. Yes, that is, that is, that is one of the points. It may be very unpopular with men, but it's popular with women still, still with all its failures. So, um, uh. You were, uh, forgetting two more things. One is 50% reservation for women in Pania. [01:29:00] He was the pioneer then 35%, and this is the most crucial imprint, 35%.
It, it became very, uh, aspirational for women in students there. And it still is. Suppose a hundred students are appearing for government exams and 35% women are guaranteed that you have a quota. He has 35% women quota for government jobs,
Song : right?
Anand : And. I said to, uh, in a state, not in middle class, particularly, uh, say across India, where the typical idea is of mother, pious lady and father, government servant.
Now he made that mother government servant, and the father may be a house husband.
Abhinandan: Mm-hmm.
Anand : So
Abhinandan: who doesn't have access? Access to alcohol? How about that?
Neerja : And also 35% reservation for women in the police force. Right. I must tell you this, in the last couple of years, wherever I've traveled, rural areas, [01:30:00] particularly when I go and meet with young women, I do ask them the question, what do you want to become if given half a chance?
Hmm. You know, seven out of 10 will tell you, I want to join the police force.
Sobhana K Nair : Mm-hmm.
Neerja : Because it means autonomy, it means dda, it means authority, it means power, freedom. That's what they're aspiring to. So he got the pulse early on. But he reserved it for women. So,
Abhinandan: so, um, Nija, I know you have even 10 minutes has just been told by a producer, but other than the obvious things that we have, uh, discussed on ish's, on policy, on politics, the equation, can the BJP post Nish be the single largest party of former government you think can be hard?
Does it have that legacy? Does it have leaders who can create that cast equation? Which, what I've understood from all the experts I've heard is [01:31:00] integral and of course, personal charisma is in, is, is inevitable in any election today. Do, do you see that happening with the bjp?
Neerja : You know, the minus point of Kumar also?
Is that he does not have a second line of leadership.
Abhinandan: Mm.
Neerja : You know, there is Sanja, there's Sing. Sing is now in, uh, the Union cabinet and so on, and nor has he named a successor.
Sobhana K Nair : Mm-hmm.
Neerja : At one time he considered Phan short. He named him also in, indicated this also, and I think had Phan KiOR not fallen out with Naish Kumar when he did.
Abhinandan: Why did
Neerja : he maybe, well, he said he did it on the NRC and CAA. They, he promised that he would not, but not, let's not go into that. Okay. A story might have been different is the point I'm making today. Uh, but just one point on women I want to make. Nish Kumar, uh, has given this to women. 10,000 rupees in one.
In every, [01:32:00] every eligible family will get this, and the number of, uh, uh, uh, amounts transferred is to 1.45, uh, one core 45 LA women and some certain amount needs to be transferred. Eight lacks or something needs to be done. I'm told they their, uh, aha card have to be aligned to their bank account. But that's a detail now.
In Mata when I was there, prh, the la which gave 1000 tope per month, which gave 1500 rupe per month to women. I heard voices in mata from Dali women, OPC women, saying, we don't care how our men folk are going to vote. We are going to vote for NDI because he's given this in our hand. This is what we've done.
It's augmented our income, it's helped our children, et cetera. Now here I heard the, the, the cast that normally vote for Kumar, which is the kumi, the extremely backward, the Ali, their women [01:33:00] say, we are voting for, uh, Kumar. Mm-hmm. As for Muslim. Which is the constituency of ada. When the, when I spoke to them, and now this is very random.
You, you go there for six, seven days, you sniff the hair. It's, you cannot say, you know, it's random.
Sobhana K Nair : Mm-hmm.
Neerja : But I didn't hear the Ada women said this. And in fact, one of them put it very beautifully, she said
is the word she used.
Sobhana K Nair : Mm-hmm.
Neerja : But
we'll vote according to the way our group goes and that's the, the way the others will go. So I didn't hear the notes being stuck by these women, the other women, the way I heard in Maa, they come, what? Me? Whatever. The cast car
still
Manisha: precedes gender in
Neerja : that. Therefore, this kind of a sweep that you see
Abhinandan: is a surprise to you
Neerja : is I, I.
Everything else I can explain. [01:34:00]
Abhinandan: Mm.
Neerja : You know, the cast have, uh, done well, it's such the election, last election that people are emotional, but that s and Muslims have split in order to vote for Nish Kumar. Mm. I don't know. I'm a bit, uh, you know, I find this hard too.
Abhinandan: And is there any way to a certain if that's happened and how it's happened or
Neerja : we don't know
Abhinandan: that kind of granular data is not
Manisha: Share is at 22 more than Bgp BGP at 20.97.
RRG is 22.7,
Abhinandan: but I'll just come to you Anan. Uh, I don't need, has to go. I've been told by a producer. But Nija, before you go, just a recommendation for our viewers. And listeners, anything, any book you've read? Oh, film You've seen article you've read. I,
Neerja : oh, I haven't had a chance to read a, a book. Uh, you know,
Abhinandan: so then that commend,
Neerja : so I tell you what, uh, what, uh, recommendation, what, what has, what [01:35:00] struck me very deeply this time when I went to Behar and I went to a village where I'd gone 46 years ago.
It's a Musha dominated village near, and I met with the women and they were so politically conscious, but when I asked them and the children, girls were also going to the school, primary school, middle school was there. And have you studied yourself? They had not. These women would be in their thirties and, you know, forties.
And, you know, I was shocked to find 2011 census. Put the education literacy, female literacy rate of muser women at one. 5%, 1.5% in the India of today. That is, it probably has gone up a little bit.
Abhinandan: How much has
Neerja : that since then? Whereas the Bihar average is 51%, the national average is 65%.
Abhinandan: Wow.
Neerja : So while, uh, you know, [01:36:00] parties are now going to this, this model AB and then is going to be followed by every incumbent chief minister, you know, women as a constituency to cater to, to give them money in their hands.
But, but
Abhinandan: then again, I mean, there has to be consistency in them allowing this kind of transfer before an election. Because in one state it's allowed, in another state it's
Neerja : not allowed. But, you know, while it gives them chances too for, you know, augmenting their income, and that's a very powerful tool because their families will see them differently.
But what about giving them the education which opens the doors and the windows for them, you know, they can take off. So, uh, it, it hit me very hard.
Abhinandan: 1%.
Neerja : You know what? A lot of things have happened, but you need to go far. You need to look at women differently, not as recipients of
Abhinandan: those. So please make a note of it all. You men doing that? Oh, you don't have alcohol shops to go to. We have the bigger [01:37:00] things to aspire towards. But thank you so much, Nija. It was a pleasure.
Manisha: Thanks Ni.
Abhinandan: You have a great weekend and, uh, yeah, I'll,
Manisha: I'll get into a, I'll give a quick data run before.
Abhinandan: Yes.
Manisha: We finish now.
Abhinandan: Oh yeah. After come back. I won't to some closing thoughts, but yes. Nija, you can carry on.
Manisha: Yeah. Thank you.
Abhinandan: This while I, uh, again, urge our audience. Scan this QR code pay to keep news free.
And I just noticed on YouTube and there's just friendly advice I'm giving to many of you. Uh, I was watching,
Manisha: we're gonna cut this part and put it out.
Abhinandan: You're
Manisha: obviously gonna trash to say,
Abhinandan: say, or roi.
Manisha: See
Abhinandan: you very accomplished people who have all the time in the world to go on YouTube and saying, you are crying.
See, I'm 51 years old. I became a reporter. There are 20 lots of parties have come and gone. It has made hundred difference to my life. I may have to fight, an extra case, may be [01:38:00] questioned, but you are demeaning your dignity to an extent that this is what you do. Your thrill is if someone is feeling bad or good, which you imagine, trust me, unless your money comes from government ads, it doesn't make any difference to most of us.
Who comes to power, who doesn't. And then you have political preference. It does not impact your day-to-day life. And I understand, I speak from privilege, but do not make such a small totally of yourself respect that this is what you live for. You know, I just thought I'd go into the comment as someone has questions for, from the hr.
Someone has questions, comments, and all I say, Oro Oro. Guys, you've gotta understand it doesn't make gender difference to most people unless your salary comes from add to that which are QR code. Ensure it doesn't. So those of you who are interested can continue to heap [01:39:00] abuse. 'cause then we know just how much time you have and how employed you are in life.
And those of you think journalism should be funded by public funds, you can scan this QR code. But please, please go ahead A and tell us, uh, I think I saying something
Manisha: NDA
Abhinandan: one. Sorry. Sorry. Before that, give us the latest data, then we'll go one.
Manisha: 201 mg B at 36 and they just trailing now properly. He's behind 4,000 votes in UR constituency.
Uh, BJP is 90 JD at 82 r JD is at 28 out of the 1 43 seats they contested and, uh, I, NNC is leading in five seats out the 61 they contested and VIP 12.
Abhinandan: So they just see Definitely gonna stay
Manisha: high. I think so, yeah, because it is now it's 4,000, so,
Abhinandan: right. Yeah. On.
Anand : No. Uh, see, uh, one of the, the, um, wrong inferences from demographic figures is what [01:40:00] Nja was saying, that uh, yes.
Uh, women among consolidated political groups, like yeah, UBS go along with cast voting, but, uh, uh, some men all within UBS also don't vote. RJD around 10 to 15%. And, uh, women. A little more, 20, 20 to 25% for different regions. Not because they like the other party, but also because other parties also sometimes put the other candidates or put or put Muslim, like Jdu has put for Muslim candidates.
Song : Mm-hmm.
Anand : Uh, they put also the other candidates. So some kinship networks like, uh, may get some, the other votes from non RJD parties Also. Also, uh, there is other factor that I, uh, pointed out in the beginning only that this. Al pattern of these, [01:41:00] these cast groups, like, uh, in which constituency means Now people who go to beha for any state, they take, uh, come and take away the big narratives for national politics or understanding even the state politics, but they don't have constant constituency wise knowledge.
Song : Mm.
Anand : That there are 2 43 constituencies and sometimes the, uh, social formations are very local and very local issues, so that they don't know even name of to, uh, right. All constituencies. So they take the big takeaways, big narratives, but, uh, like, uh, so at
Abhinandan: level they may be very
Anand : huge, like the, for example, RJD put up, uh, some say, uh, not it's, it's a truth.
Also a candidate from. Uh, constituency now. Uh, and there are credible reports that I have from that [01:42:00] locality that, yeah, others in four, five big groups. Uh. Conducted a meeting and said that if this time this kha gets the ticket and he does well, RJ D would repeat kha from this seat and the others will not get this ticket.
So
Abhinandan: they'll incentivize.
Anand : So, so, so, so we have not to only not, uh, not vote, but vote the other party so he gets defeated. Yeah. So sometimes this tactical voting also happens within cast groups. So,
Abhinandan: so, so it's also to incentivize a repeat of the same cast. Alright, so Manisha, you have any closing, uh, remarks before we get recommendations for the
Manisha: Yeah, just one thing.
That 2024 elections were a pretty straight kind of, uh, what we got. I mean, surely what we got out of it was that people wanted a strong opposition in the country. If nothing else, it was a vote for a strong opposition and a check on BJ p. And its passed after that big state elections like Maha Ana and now BHA [01:43:00] have all gone the NDA way.
I think there is. Something there. The opposition has to think of itself as an India alliance has to come together as an alliance, as of not just opposing Modi before Saba. If you are together, then I think like Nija was saying that you have to think of what happened in these three state elections where the alliance couldn't really come together.
In fact, so many friendly fights have actually damaged them in Bihar too. Mm-hmm. I was reading a couple of constituencies. Uh, there seems to be bickering on seat sharing. There's always, now, I don't know the reality of what really happened in Bihar, but there were these murmurs of one Congress party faction kind of upset with seat allocation.
Uh, they just feel not going out a bit with Raul not coming. Pka. Not in fact Pran. Gani didn't at all Canvas. She came for last two days. Right. But through the election, you don't really see that kind of strength that Congress could put in the central leadership. Mm-hmm. So if you are an alliance, and clearly the Alliance and Luke Subha.
At least the message was that we do need you [01:44:00] guys. It wasn't a complete like Zo par the way BGP was saying. So the country was saying that we need a strong opposition in place. The opposition has to get back to being a strong opposition, I think. Right? Come together for these state elections, have a strategy, have a common minimum program.
Anand : Mm.
Manisha: So all of that seems just not there. So,
Anand : uh, means, uh, I, I don't like anecdotes because, uh, anyway, means anecdotes are, uh, I think, uh, for someone who is from this, suppose you are from a colony or this, you don't have much interest in anecdotes. The anecdotes are for outsider. Mm. But on the Congress point, I am just, uh, uh, guilty of the same.
She, I am giving you an anecdote and, uh, and RGT uh, means, uh, a person who is in, at local levels a kind of a strategist. Mm. He said that, uh, the mm. Enigma for, uh, the Maha Randan. Is that [01:45:00] what Congress brings to the table? Mm. So,
Song : yeah.
Anand : So because upper cast votes it had before nineties mm. It has gone to say BJP and BJP also had some whole in the late EVC votes and itis has an an umbrella kind of votes, and RJD already has Muslim and, uh, the other vote stronghold
Abhinandan: and the money that is there, the congress leaders don't share with the party.
Anand : So, so Congress and in fact, he was very critical that this, this election, we could have made very local. Mm-hmm. And, uh, very specific to constituencies and three four state issues. Now, Rahul Gandhi comes and says. So, so we lost the local momentum and they lost the local
Abhinandan: strategy is not
Manisha: ated. And right before the elections, if you say leads that you're already kind telling [01:46:00] that you don't need to really get out the messages that tkr, it's rigged.
Abhinandan: Right. With that, we'll get the recommendations for the week. Uh, you wanna go first? Manisha?
Manisha: No, I'll just
Abhinandan: pull it out. Oh, Rama, you wanna go first? Should I go first? No,
Raman : I'll go first.
Abhinandan: Okay.
Raman : Two recommendations. One is, uh, Manu Joseph's column this last, this week.
Abhinandan: Mm-hmm.
Raman : Uh, can beneficiaries of inequality be the ones who end it?
Uh, he spoke about Ani.
Song : Mm-hmm.
Raman : Who is one of the beneficiary of this inequality, whether he would be able to end it or not. Okay.
Song : So
Raman : I think, uh, it was his take, whether you agree or not, but nicely contested.
Song : Hmm.
Raman : And, uh, the second is, uh, there is, uh, uh, six episode, uh, documentary. On v Tara. Um, we, which has come on geo hotta, I think.
I think, uh, it is the, uh, you know, we can say ban version of what they're doing with these animals. [01:47:00] Uh, I found it very impressive, uh, the kind I think it is. Even, even people do not get treated the way these animals are getting treated, uh, in that hospital. They, I beauty. Is
Abhinandan: that a good thing or a bad thing?
Raman : No. Very happy Only thing. Only thing which I, uh, I'm not very sure whether, how do they rehabilitate these? I'm impressed. I'm highly impressed with the whatever they're doing. But, uh, how do they rehabilitate? Uh, you know, after treating these people and if they are commercially using them at all, uh, you know, once they die or,
Abhinandan: well,
Raman : we, we are not aware.
Abhinandan: You'll never get that on geo for sure. So,
Raman : so these are the two unanswered questions.
Abhinandan: No. So the dozens of unanswered questions, but anyway, these are the two that may emerge from this series. Yes. Anand,
Anand : since, uh, the discussion was around to hard, so, uh, one. [01:48:00] Book I am recommending is, uh, uh, by Jeffrey Wood. So, uh, he, he miss, it's not a very good book in all aspects of that term, but, uh, a good book on certain aspects. Uh, it has limitations that, uh, visiting academics or generalists have when they write about.
Uh, an area to which they're a visitor. So, but, uh, it's a book on, um, Behar. It's called, uh, the State Development and Democracy. It came out in 2003, uh, at the, um, cusp of this transition from, uh, it came in 2005, this transition from, um, Lara to, and he stayed in the state for, he is a, an anthropologist of Columbia University.
Abhinandan: Mm.
Anand : And he stayed in VR for around a year or so. He gets lot of things [01:49:00] wrong, but, uh, uh, the. That he has, uh, applied to some aspects of analysis that could be a good, uh, way to, uh, look at the state from an outsider point of view. Not for insiders. Insiders will criticize the book. Second is, mm, uh, say, uh, a book that I have always re re, um, recommended a very slim book, Republic of Bihar.
Arwin Arvin. Uh, it has, uh, again, the limitation of, uh, an ideological framework, but the cr information that he has packed in 120 pages is, uh, something that, uh, should be. Worthy
Abhinandan: of your time.
Anand : Absorbed. Yes. Worthy of time. Yes.
Abhinandan: Manisha.
Manisha: So a piece in Equator inside BBC's, Gaza Fiasco. I'm watching a really [01:50:00] fun Amazon series.
No, it's an Apple TV Pluribus, which is basically a science fiction series where the world has been infected by a hive mind, a permanently happy hive mind.
Abhinandan: Mm.
Manisha: So all of humanities is happy and there are like six people immune. It's a story of one of the writers who's immune to being happy.
So
Manisha: as writers of enough, it's really, it's really fun.
Abhinandan: Uh, so I have three opinion pieces, all three from Million Express for different reasons I'm recommending them. Last week was Guru Baha's Death anniversary, A Martyrdom Day. Um, this is a piece written by Manji s Pur. What I like about it is a guru Baha is one of my heroes. Just like Gu Sing is, uh,
Anand : sing was born in
Abhinandan: Yes, I know.
He was very guru. So got, [01:51:00] so the three great men. All three. All all from bi
sub. Okay. So I love this piece because, uh, it's written about how he martyred himself, sacrificed himself standing up for another religion, and it's called In Good Faith a Marty for Human Rights, grew Guru by others. Teachings continue to speak to us. I think it's a really nice piece and it's also a very nice piece because it was a mug emperor who killed him and he was defending Hindus, but it does not demonize Muslims.
Right. Whereas, if any of these. Who would probably be sitting in studios right now were to say the same thing. They would do a disservice to GHA to what he actually fought for by using this to demonize a community. So it's a lovely [01:52:00] piece. Do read it and do read about GHA at the time. The second is by Singh.
Our security agencies deserve credit for thwarting a larger plot behind red for blast. This is what I was saying in the beginning, the first time I've seen a terrorist attack the conversation after that saying, what a wonderful thing our security agency is, rather than saying, where was a failure to be celebrated as some sort of success.
It is a first, in my view, and this op-ed is something that indicates the third is. Peace in Delhi and beyond toxic air is sustained by toxic politics. You are dying every day. So your children, those of you who want to make your children's sports persons where in NCR or Delhi or North India, good luck.
Their lungs are seriously compromised, and I hope you enjoy jumping and outside celebrating the politics of today while your children slowly poison themselves to death by breathing poison in the air, but
[01:53:00] useless, useless.
Congratulations on that, on that positive,
Manisha: on that grim note. Wow. Your rant is more like painful than my rants usually on this.
Abhinandan: Yeah, it really is.
Manisha: I'm,
Abhinandan: I'd like to thank one producer, Pali on the floor. We have Naresh, we have our sound recorders. I'm missing Anil. Our, she was here somewhere. And I guess there are other people who have made sure that this live goes hitch free.
Uh, and thank you to the trolls who made sure there was enough, Ron, on our YouTube page, and those of you who haven't yet subscribed to subscribe here a QR code, uh, because this is live, we will not have a song recommendation. So let's sing a bha. I'll follow,
Anand : no, not lead. It's, uh, um, there is a, it's in the political campaign.
Uh, um, there is a soha, which is, [01:54:00] uh, um, generally sung in Eastern up. And Bihar Soha Soha is sang when a new and, uh, child expert.
Abhinandan: Okay.
Anand : So they, the JD work and this ika, uh, the, is, uh, this network of self health groups. So they, uh. Reinvented a popular show in name. Um, so it's, uh, I will give it, it's, it's a,
so it's a popular, uh, show, but with a political campaign to
Abhinandan: Okay. The only song that springs to mind of a child being born in that I can think of song, I think.
Okay. [01:55:00] Thank you. Have a great weekend and congratulations to all the winners and to all the losers. Al Do
Manisha: nice. Democracy is won. You should cliche, but in People are won, democracy is won
Anand : in, people are, but we should not recommend that song because that's a campaign song and it's. So we
Manisha: can recommend the actual, actual
Abhinandan: original one,
Anand : original Soha, which is
Abhinandan: so in the podcast version of this.
The original Soha will be there, so you can, if you're curious about it, do check it out over there. Bye-bye.[01:56:00]
Manisha: Thank you for your subscription. You are changing the world by changing the way news is funded. For the smoothest news laundry experience, download the News Laundry app. It is the best way to listen to our paywall podcasts, and you'll also get access to all free news laundry shows. Keep us ad free and subscriber funded.
Help us grow. Tell people who listen to you to pay to keep news free. Subscribe to News Laundry. Keep journalism independent.
Newslaundry is a reader-supported, ad-free, independent news outlet based out of New Delhi. Support their journalism, here.
