Reform UK would be the largest party in the UK if a general election were held tomorrow as support for Labour and the Conservatives collapses, a new in-depth poll has suggested.
Nigel Farage's party would win 271 seats, including five new MPs in London, according to the forecasts by YouGov released on Thursday.
Labour would secure just 178 MPs across the UK, less than half of the 411 seats Sir Keir Starmer won in a landslide victory a year ago.
The Conservatives would fall to fourth place with just 46 MPs projected, behind the Liberal Democrats who would gain an nine extra seats to build a Commons caucus of 81 MPs.
The Greens would gain three seats to hold seven slots in parliament and the SNP would once again be the largest party in Scotland with 34 seats.
It means Mr Farage would lead the largest party in the Commons but fall short of being able to form a majority government.
Labour’s regional vote share falls by an average of eight points in the South East to 16 points in the North East, the poll shows.
London is the only region Sir Keir’s party remains the largest in terms of seats. But it would be reduced to 54 seats from 59.
The Conservatives would remain on nine seats in the capital after winning back Chelsea and Fulham, Uxbridge and Hendon from Labour, according to the poll.
The Liberal Democrats would keep their six MPs in the city. Jeremy Corbyn would also retain his Islington North constituency.
Reform would win five new London MPs, taking Bexleyheath and Crayford and Dagenham and Rainham off Labour and winning Old Bexley and Sidcup, Romford and Hornchurch and Upminister from the Tories.
Constituencies surrounding London, including Spethorne, Thurrock and large swathes of Essex would also fall to Reform in an election, the poll predicts.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch would retain her North West Essex seat but her 2024 leadership challenger and former Home Secretary James Cleverly would lose to Reform in Braintree, the poll suggests.
The Liberal Democrats would also take former chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s seat Godalming and Ash.
The survey shows constituencies are being won by “increasingly small shares of the vote and small margins”.
An average of around 35% of the vote would win a seat, the survey suggests.
By contrast, in 2024, the average winning party share was around 40%, with an average majority size of 16 points.
In 2019 the successful candidate would see a vote share comfortably over 50%, with an average majority of 26 percentage points.
The poll comes after Reform clinched the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes last month.
Mr Farage’s party also gained 677 council seats, the Tories lost 674 to end up on 319, Labour lost 187 to finish with 98, the Liberal Democrats gained 163 to a total of 370, and the Greens increased their number by 44 to 79.
This is YouGov's first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll since the last general election and 11,500 people were surveyed.
It is not a forecast, but an estimate of what could happen with the next election not set to take place until 2029.
