Reform UK has jumped ahead of the Conservatives in London as support for Labour has plunged, a new poll has found.
The survey by Find Out Now shows Nigel Farage’s party surging to 19%, ahead of the Tories on 17%, down three percentage points since the General Election.
Labour still has a comfortable lead in the capital, one of its strongholds, but backing for Sir Keir Starmer’s party has plunged 13 percentage points since July last year to 30%.
Both the Lib Dems on 16%, up five points, and Greens on 15%, also up five points, have benefited from the backlash against the Government, according to the poll commissioned by Reform.
The party’s leader Mr Farage said: “This new London polling is strong for Reform and it’s before we have even got going.
“Even in our least advanced region we are ahead of a dying Conservative Party.”
Twenty-five per cent of Reform’s backers in the capital voted Conservative at the General Election, compared to 5% who supported Labour last July.
Twelve per cent of Green supporters in London voted Labour at the General Election, as did 9% of Lib Dem backers.
So far out from the next General Election, most likely to take place in 2029, 32% of Londoners say they “don’t know” how they would vote, according to the poll which has a margin of error of around three per cent.
But the survey, which sought to “squeeze” the “don’t knows” to encourage them to state a party, is another blow to the Tories, and their leader Kemi Badenoch, in their battle to remain one of the two major parties in Britain’s increasingly fractured politics.
Labour would still be in pole position to win the London mayoralty in 2028, on 33%, compared to Reform and the Tories on 20% each, the Greens 13% and Lib-Dems 10%.
Reform could increase their number of London Assembly members from one to five.
Alex Wilson, Reform UK Assembly Member, said: “This shows real momentum following Reform UK’s seismic election results on 1st May.”
The surge in support for Reform in London is particularly among the elderly.
Thirty-five per cent of Londoners aged 65 to 74 say they would vote for Reform at the next General Election, and 33% for the 75 and over age group.
This compares to 6% for Londoners aged 18 to 29.
Male Londoners are more likely to back Reform than women, with the party getting support of 21% and 16% respectively.
The Tories now have just nine MPs left in the capital and zero in central London.
If the poll proves correct, the Conservative MP most vulnerable to a Reform surge appears to be Julia Lopez in Hornchurch and Upminster who gained 15,260 votes last July, compared to Reform’s Nick Palmer getting 13,317.
Andrew Rosindell in Romford could also face a battle to keep his seat, having gained 15,339 votes, to Labour’s Andrew Achilleos on 13,876, and Reform’s Philip Hyde on 9,624.
Other Tory MPs could end up losing to Labour, if Reform eat mainly into their vote, including Chris Philp in Croydon South and Peter Fortune in Bromley and Biggin Hill.
Separate polling has suggested that the only Tory who could beat Nigel Farage is Boris Johnson.
* Find Out Now surveyed 1102 London adults from May 4 to 8. Data is weighted to be representative by gender, age, London region, ethnicity and 2024 General Election vote.
