Don’t take any betting tips from SNP leader John Swinney.
His horse nearly came third in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election which Scotland’s First Minister had billed as a “two horse race” between the Scottish National Party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Labour’s Davy Russell proved to be the “dark horse” in this Scottish Parliament contest, winning the seat with 8,559 votes to pull off a shock victory.
The SNP finished second with the party’s Katy Loudon receiving 7,957 votes, dropping nearly 17 percentage points since 2021, closely followed by Reform’s Ross Lambie with 7,088 votes in third.
Reform jumped from 0.2% of the vote in 2021 to 26%, while the Tory misery continued, seeing an 11 percentage point fall to just six per cent, or 1,621 votes.
So what does this all mean?
First, it’s a surprise boost for Sir Keir Starmer, and Labour’s Scottish leader Anas Sarwar, as they try to revive their party’s popularity after its startling decline since winning the July general election last year.
The PM hailed a “fantastic” victory after clinching the by-election by 602 votes.
However, Labour won a Westminster by-election in this part of Scotland less than two years ago with a majority of some 9,500 so the result may not be as good as first appears.
A win, though, is a win.
Afterall, Reform UK won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes in May, a key component of the political shock which Mr Farage’s party unleashed as it also gained 677 council seats, and control of ten town halls.
Incumbent governments often lose by-elections and the SNP has been in power since 2007.
Labour’s Hamilton victory, though, is being put down at least partly to the local popularity of their candidate Mr Russell and to its ground operation to get out its vote.
Having structures, people, and local knowledge can be so key in elections and this is where Reform has work to do and where it may miss Zia Yusuf, who quit as chairman after branding as “dumb” a call from new Runcorn MP Sarah Pochin for the burka to be banned in public.
Mr Yusuf was seen as key to modernising Reform and building it up as a party right across the country.
In Scotland, politics is already multi-party due to its proportional electoral Additional Member System.
But what the by-election result also shows is that Reform can challenge north of the border, as well as south, almost beating the SNP into second place.
As for the Tories, their woes continue.
It’s not yet the knacker’s yard for the party.
But falling into fourth place will only add to already growing pressure on party leader Kemi Badenoch.
