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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Sturgeon publishes Brexit impact report saying staying in single market best option - Politics live

Nicola Sturgeon speaking at the launch of an analysis paper on Scotland’s future relationship with Europe.
Nicola Sturgeon speaking at the launch of an analysis paper on Scotland’s future relationship with Europe. Photograph: John Linton/PA

The Heywood hearing has moved on from Brexit now, and returned to less-than-scintillating civil service process issues.

Heywood says the government has a diplomatic academy training up civil servants for trade talks.

Bernard Jenkin, the committee chair, goes next.

Q: Shouldn’t the international trade department be integrated into the Brexit talks.

Yes, says Heywood. He says Liam Fox is on the relevant committees.

Q: Shouldn’t Crawford Falconer, the UK’s trade negotiator, attend the relevant cabinet committees?

Heywood says Falconer is not negotiating Brexit.

It is up to the prime minister to decide who attends the cabinet committee she chairs, he says.

Marcus Fysh, a Conservative, goes next.

Q: How much trade negotiating expertise does the civil service now have?

An increasing amount, says Heywood.

Sir Jeremy Heywood.
Sir Jeremy Heywood Photograph: Parliament TV

David Jones, the Conservative Brexiter, is asking the questions.

Q: Do we have all the IT systems in place if we need a new customs system after a no deal Brexit?

Heywood said a no deal Brexit would be a huge challenge.

But much of the work would be for other countries. The French would need to put new controls in at Calais.

He says, among those things in the government’s control, it has “a very good grip” on the issues. “We’re completely on it,” he says.

Q: Isn’t there a strong possibility that we will have a no deal?

Heywood says it is not either/or. The government is planning for a range of scenarios. And some outcomes overlap.

Q: And you are comfortable you can get a good outcome?

Heywood says the word “comfortable” is not appropriate. It is a difficult task. But he is on it, he says.

At the public administration committee MPs have started asking Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, about Brexit.

He says it is the most difficult challenge facing the civil service since the war.

He says an extra 3,000 civil servants have been taken on, and more will have to be hired. How many more will depend on what type of Brexit the country gets.

He says “we’re on top of it”. But “a large chunk of the challenge” is ahead.

Samuel Lowe from the Centre for European Reform thinktank has posted an interesting thread on the single market on Twitter. It starts here.

What makes it worth noting is that it has been endorsed by Sabine Weyand, deputy to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator. Commenting on it, she posted this.

Last week the Times splashed on a story (paywall) about three options for defence cuts drawn up within government. It was by Deborah Haynes and here’s how it started.

Military chiefs have drawn up a plan to cut the armed forces by more than 14,000 and combine elite units of paratroopers and Royal Marines to save money, The Times has learnt.

The three sets of proposed cuts presented to Gavin Williamson when he took over as defence secretary from Sir Michael Fallon can be revealed today.

The proposals — described by a Whitehall source as “ugly, ugly or ugly” — include cutting the army by 11,000 soldiers and losing 2,000 Royal Marines and sailors and 1,250 airmen. The total size of the regular armed forces is about 137,000. The army has a target size of 82,000 but at present it numbers fewer than 78,000. Reducing this to 71,000 or fewer would make it the smallest since before the Napoleonic wars more than 200 years ago.

In the Commons Gavin Williamson, the defence secretary, is answering an urgent question prompted by the Times report. But he is not giving much away beyond other than to say that the national security capability review is still underway.

Gavin Williamson
Gavin Williamson Photograph: BBC

Commons committee demands assurances about supply of medical radioisotopes after Brexit

The Commons European scrutiny committee has challenged ministers to explain how they will ensure the UK maintains a secure supply of medical radioisotopes after Brexit. Radioisotopes are used to detect cancer. As it published a report on this issue, the committee said in a statement:

The committee’s concern comes in the light of the serious shortage of radioisotopes [from 2008 to 2010] due to the prolonged shutdown of supply reactors in Canada and the Netherlands. The principal material, Molybdenum-99, is not produced in the UK and its decay product (Technetium-99m) is ultimately used for 90% of medical interventions involving radioisotopes. Molybdenum cannot be stockpiled as it has a half-life of only 66 hours.

The security of supply of isotopes is currently fulfilled by the Euratom Supply Agency. Euratom provides the basis for the regulation of civilian nuclear activity, implements a system of safeguards to control the use of nuclear materials and controls the supply of fissile materials within EU member states. The UK’s future relationship with Euratom has emerged as a significant issue in the negotiations between the UK and the EU on EU withdrawal.

The European Commission warns that the supply of medical radioisotopes is becoming more fragile and requires a more coordinated approach. The European Scrutiny Committee seeks assurance from the Government and an explanation of how the UK will develop its own policy.

Philippa Whitford, an SNP member of the committee, said:

I was working as a breast cancer surgeon during the Technetium shortage which lasted well over a year. During that time we were faced with having to ration bone scans to only the most urgent or worrying cases.

In addition it held back the roll out of Sentinel Node Biopsy technique across the UK which has since allowed much less destructive surgery to be used when staging the spread of breast cancer. With all of these reactors nearing the end of their working lives, the Euratom Supply Agency plays an important role in avoiding such a shortage in the future.

The committee is chaired by the Tory Brexiter Sir Bill Cash.

David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, has responded to the Scottish government’s Brexit impact analysis by accusing the SNP of ignoring the economic damage its independence plans would cause. ITV’s Peter MacMahon has tweeted these quotes.

David Mundell
David Mundell Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Jeremy Heywood gives evidence to MPs

Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, is about to start giving evidence to the Commons public administration and constitutional affairs committee.

You can watch the hearing here.

Bernard Jenkin, the chair, has just told Heywood in his opening remarks that the committee will be holding an inquiry into Carillion.

The hearing is supposed to be about civil service effectiveness, which sounds bland but will (with luck) take the MPs and Heywood into some newsy exchanges ...

Wales needs self-determination, not Tory neoliberalism or Labour's 'centralising' state socialism, says Plaid's Leanne Wood

Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, gave a major speech earlier today setting out her “vision for a fairer Wales”. In it she argued that the Tories were offering neoliberalism and that Labour were offering state socialism and that neither were what Wales needed. She said:

Decisions about Wales should be made in Wales. Self-determination means that we should choose which powers we want to share with other countries or with Europe.

Yet neither an intensification of neoliberalism, nor the resurrection of British state socialism will provide the solutions that are needed to solve our economic challenges and turn Wales around.

Both visions offered by the two largest Westminster parties marginalise our specific needs as a nation.

We need to get out there and show people how the core weakness of Labour’s paternalistic, centralising socialism is its democratic deficit. It will neither enable people to own their own resources nor run them democratically. It won’t empower people because it doesn’t trust people.

We should look at locating new institutions outside where they are concentrated already, as Plaid Cymru has advocated for the new transport authority, football museum, national development bank, and other bodies.

It means ensuring that those parts of Cardiff as well as our former industrialised communities which are amongst the poorest areas of the country, can benefit from a sustainable regional approach to economic development.

This is about levelling up, and treating geographic inequality as a problem to be tackled in the same way as other inequalities.

She also proposed legal safeguards to ensure public sector investment is fairly shared across Wales and giving people a minimum set of social rights for all including life-long learning and a decent home

Wood’s lecture is being published as a pamphlet and she intends to tour Wales holding public meetings discussing the ideas it contains.

Jon Lansman, the Momentum founder, veteran Labour Bennite and close Corbyn ally, has tweeted this about his election to Labour’s NEC.

And Yasmine Dar, who was also backed by Momentum, has tweeted this about her victory.

But their victory has not gone down well at the Evening Standard, whose editor, the Conservative former chancellor George Osborne, has just tweeted this.

Here is the full text of the statement that Neil Findlay, Scottish Labour’s Brexit spokesman, has issued on the Sturgeon speech.

The Tories reckless and incompetent Brexit risks devastating our economy, jobs and public services.

The Tories’ Brexit process has so far delivered nothing but uncertainty and attacks on hard-won workers rights and devolution.

It’s the security of people’s jobs and the economy which should be at the heart of any deal to leave the EU and Labour will get on with fighting for the best possible deal for the whole of the UK while respecting the result of the EU referendum; unlike the SNP who seem never to accept the result of any referendum.

It is telling that on the day Carillion goes into liquidation the first minister is back on her constitutional offensive whilst offering no reassurance to the Scottish workers impacted.

The truth is that it’s only Labour, at a UK and Scottish level, that has a plan to invest in our public services, our industries and our people and communities - and it’s only Labour that will negotiate a new relationship with the single market that retains its benefits, or a new bespoke trade deal that protects our economy.

As you’ll notice, it doesn’t address the argument Sturgeon was making about Labour’s stance on the single market. (See 12.30pm.)

Neil Findlay.
Neil Findlay. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Updated

Lunchtime summary

  • Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has sought to galvanise efforts to get MPs to insist on the UK staying in the single market after Brexit by publishing an analysis showing this would be the least damaging outcome. (See 12.30pm.)
  • Penny Mordaunt, the relatively new international development secretary, has said the UK will no longer pay for aid projects that developing countries could fund themselves. (See 10.43am.)
  • A weekly cash allowance provided to asylum seekers should rise by 80p, a Home Office review has concluded. From next month the sum will increase from £36.95 to £37.75 per week, the Press Association reports. The government seeks to ensure asylum seekers are not left destitute while their application is determined. Support is usually provided in the form of furnished accommodation, as well as a financial allowance to cover essential living needs. The weekly cash sum is reviewed each year and a Home Office report detailing the latest findings was published today. Mariam Kemple-Hardy of Refugee Action said:

We acknowledge that the government has responded to a consultation on the rate of asylum support by a small increase of 80p a week. But with soaring inflation and no increase to asylum support over the past three years, this should have gone much further - to at least 70% of mainstream benefits.

More people seeking asylum are waiting longer for their claim to be processed. During this time, which in some cases can be years, people are left unable to work and struggling to survive on just over £5 a day. This takes a tremendous toll on the wellbeing of people who have fled conflict and persecution. Expecting people to survive on so little is incompatible with a compassionate asylum system.

Updated

Eddie Izzard, the Labour centrist who was runner up behind the three Momentum candidates in the NEC election (see 12.36pm), has said he will continue to campaign for an “open and welcoming Labour party” after his defeat.

SNP Brexit analysis 'simply cannot be trusted', says Scottish Tories

The Scottish Conservatives have dismissed the Scottish government’s Brexit impact report. This is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley, quoting Adam Tomkins, shadow communities secretary in the Scottish parliament.

Momentum candidates easily win all three vacancies on Labour's NEC

As expected, the three leftwing Momentum candidates have easily won the Labour national executive council election. Here are the results.

And here is our story.

Nicola Sturgeon's speech and Brexit impact report - Summary and analysis

  • Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said she was publishing a Brexit impact report in the hope of boosting the prospects of getting the UK to stay in the single market. She described the document (pdf) as “more detailed and extensive than anything so far provided by the UK Government” and said that it showed clearly that, if the UK has to leave the EU, staying in the single market was “the least damaging option by far”. It was “absolutely, manifestly, beyond any doubt the option that will do the least damage to our economy”, she said. The report focuses on the impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy, but it says explicitly (in paragraph 13) that it has implications for the debate in the UK generally. Sturgeon said:

With the next phase of the talks to determine the future relationship between EU and the UK due to begin in the next few weeks, it is time now to make that case for continued membership of the single market even more loudly than before. Today we do exactly that backed by new evidence of the importance of single market membership to our economic and social prospects.

  • She said she believed that there was a majority in favour of staying in the single market in the House of Commons. She was referring to where she think MPs stand on this as individuals. As she conceded, Labour’s official stance on the single market (see next paragraph) is preventing that majority she claims exists being mobilised.
  • She implied that Jeremy Corbyn was trying to mislead people by claiming that the UK could not leave the EU and remain in the single market. She said this as she conceded that getting Corbyn to shift his stance on the single market was crucial.

The bigger issue, in order to get to that majority, is to get Jeremy Corbyn off the ridiculous position he is in. Either Jeremy Corbyn is still misunderstanding the position of the single market, which given how often it has been pointed out to him can’t possibly be the case. Or he is now trying to deliberately mislead people with this line that you cannot be in the single market if you are not in the EU. Norway stands as the living proof that that is just not the case.

  • The Scottish government report said Scotland’s GDP would be 8.5% lower by 2030 than it would be if it stayed in the EU if Brexit resulted in the UK trading with Europe on WTO terms. It would be 6.1% lower with a free trade agreement, but only 2.7% lower if the UK stayed in the single market, the report said. The report also translated these figures into GDP per capita terms - a tactic that George Osborne also tried when he published a Treasury report on the impact of Brexit before the referendum. Osborne’s tactic is generally seen to have been a failure, partly because the figures he used seemed too precise to be plausible for a long-term forecast and partly because implying that GDP per capita was the same as household income was seen as misleading.
Brexit impact analysis
Brexit impact analysis Photograph: Scottish government
  • The report said real disposable income would be almost 10% lower by 2030 under the hardest form of Brexit than it would be if the UK stayed in the EU. Under a free trade agreement it would be 7.4% lower, the report said, and it would be just 1.4% lower if the UK stayed in the single market. This measure was not one included in the Treasury forecast in 2016.
  • The report said staying in the single market was advantageous not just because barriers to trade would be lower but because the benefits of the single market have not yet been fully realised. It said:

It is clear that the benefits we have derived from almost 45 years of membership of the single market are far from exhausted. Although substantial progress has been achieved in the years since the European single market programme was launched in 1992, it remains incomplete in key areas. Removing the remaining barriers to trade in goods and services will unlock further gains for commerce, consumers and workers across the EU. This is particularly true as the EU moves to complete an energy union, a capital markets union, a banking union and a digital single market. Furthermore, considerable potential remains untapped due to remaining barriers to cross-border trade in goods and services.

  • Sturgeon said she had to campaign to keep free movement because restricting EU migration would be bad for the Scottish economy. The report said:

Scotland’s economy benefits significantly from EU migration. EU citizens are helping to grow our economy, address skills shortages within key sectors and make an essential contribution to our population growth. Over the last decade population growth has been the primary driver of GDP growth and this has been driven chiefly by inward migration. The Scottish government recently undertook modelling of the economic contribution of EU citizens to the Scottish economy which confirms that workers from other EU countries bring real economic benefits to Scotland.

And in her speech Sturgeon said:

Over the next 25 years our own projected birthrate will not be sufficient to grow our population. In the period to 2041, all our projected population growth will come from inward migration.

Without that our population could go into decline and with it our ability to grow our economy and fund our public services. That would be the stark reality for Scotland of a restriction in our ability to attract people to our country. That is why, as first minister, I have a duty to make the case for free movement, no matter how difficult that is sometimes perceived to be.

  • The report said leaving the single market would lead to lower standards. It said:

The damage will not only be economic, serious as this is, but will also compromise current safeguards in a range of vital policy areas currently driven at the EU level such as rights and protections in areas like the environment, workers’ rights and justice and home affairs co-operation where we derive considerable benefit.

The UK government does not accept this. Ministers have repeatedly claimed that standards affecting things like workers’ rights and the environment will not be lowered after Brexit.

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon Photograph: John Linton/PA

Updated

Marco Biago, a former SNP MSP and local government minister in the Scottish government until 2016, thinks that that just telling people that GDP will be lower under a hard Brexit, as the Scottish government’s report says, is not a persuasive strategy.

Here is an extract from Nicola Sturgeon’s speech.

For the sake of jobs, the economy and the next generation, today we are calling on the UK government to drop its hard Brexit red-lines so that Scotland and the UK can stay inside the single market and customs union.

Scotland is particularly well-placed to take advantage of the developing and deepening single market - the world’s biggest economy of 500m people, eight times the size of the UK.

Our brilliant world-class universities, our unrivalled potential in renewable energy, our life sciences industry, our digital sector and other key areas of the Scottish economy are all in prime position to reap the rewards of these developments.

That will mean more jobs and higher wages. It would be a tragedy for future generations if we let that opportunity pass us by.

The fact that the prime minister wants to leave not only the political structures of the EU but come out of the European Economic Area shows just how extreme the UK government position is. With just weeks to go before the opening of talks on the future relationship that extreme stance must be dropped.

Sturgeon has finished taking questions.

I will post a summary shortly.

Sturgeon says the fruit picking industry will be severely impacted by Brexit. Access to labour is a key consideration, she says.

It is a sector with a high level of anxiety about Brexit, she says.

Q: What is the UK gets a better deal than expected?

Sturgeon says there is no option as good as staying in the EU.

And, if the UK has to leave, no option - even a Canada plus plus plus” - is better than staying in the single market.

She says she hopes the UK government does well in the negotiations.

But she says the UK government’s red lines imply only a Canada-type deal will be acceptable. She refers to Michael Barnier’s graphic illustrating this, which is in the Scottish government’s report.

Barnier’s chart showing where the UK Brexit red lines lead
Barnier’s chart showing where the UK Brexit red lines lead Photograph: Scottish government

Q: How many jobs would be lost by leaving the single market?

Sturgeon says estimates vary a bit. But broadly economists agree on the dangers of leaving the single market, she says.

Q: Are you holding any discussions with Jeremy Corbyn to get him to change his mind?

Sturgeon says she thinks of it as a matter of getting Corbyn to be coherent and logical.

She has not had talks with Corbyn, she says. But she says her colleagues at Westminster discuss this with Labour.

She says people who cannot see that staying in the single market are the best option are blinded by ideology.

Leaving single market would cost Scots at least £1,600 per head by 2030, says Sturgeon

Here is an extract from the Scottish government’s news release.

A failure to remain in the single market or to secure a free trade agreement would see Scotland’s GDP around £12.7bn lower by 2030 than it would be under continued EU membership.

This is would mean a loss equivalent to £2,300 per year for each person in Scotland.

The analysis takes account of the impact on trade, productivity and migration of different future relationships. It shows that a so called ‘Canada-type’ deal with the EU would still leave Scotland’s GDP £9bn lower by 2030 – or £1,610 per head.

Other key findings include:

Remaining within the single market could see an additional benefit to Scotland’s economy if the EU makes progress on completing the single market in services, energy and the digital economy

Continued migration from the EU in line with freedom of movement is required to support continued economic growth, with each additional EU citizen working in Scotland currently contributing an average of £10,400 in tax revenue

Any relationship with the EU short of remaining in the single market could have a significant impact on social protections, environmental and consumer policies

Updated

Sturgeon says the Scottish government is still backing the plan it put forward last year, for Scotland to say in the single market even if the rest of the UK leaves.

But she thinks there is an appetite across the UK for staying in the single market.

Q: The document shows that trade with England, Wales and Northern Ireland is bigger than it is with the EU. Shouldn’t you focus on that?

Sturgeon says she does not want to compromise or give up trade with other countries in the UK.

She says she will attend a round-table after lunch with people from the financial services sector. That is an example of how she is trying to strengthen trade with England.

Sturgeon says she does not know if May will still be PM at the end of this process.

She says Jeremy Corbyn’s position on the single market [that you cannot be in it if you leave the EU] is ridiculous. Either he does not understand the reality, or he is being disingenuous, she says.

Q: What impact would a two-year transition have on your thinking about a second independence referendum?

Sturgeon says she addressed this in her Andrew Marr interview yesterday. She does not want to add anything to that.

Updated

Q: Are you appealing over the heads of the government to MPs directly?

Sturgeon says she thinks the arguments she has made have had an influence.

The direction of travel is in the direction of staying in the single market, she says.

She says she wants voices outside politics to speak up.

She encourages business to speak up.

This paper sets out the implications of the three, broad post-Brexit options are.

It shows beyond any doubt that the least damaging option is staying in the single market, she says.

Sturgeon has finished her speech. She is now taking questions.

She says the paper is intended to influence the debate now.

She says she thinks there is a majority in favour of single market membership in the Commons, whatever Jeremy Corbyn thinks.

She says she has put this evidence into the public demain “to seek to harness that majority”.

Here is a clearer version of the key chart from the document.

This chart shows the estimated impact of three versions of Brexit on Scotland by 2020 (the dark blue lines), by 2025 (the mid-blue ones) and by 2030 (the light blue ones).

On the left the bars show the impact of staying in the European economic area (ie, staying in the single market.)

The set of bars in the middle show the impact of trading with Europe under a free trade agreement.

And the three bars of the left show the impact of trading with the EU on WTO terms.

Impact of various Brexit options on Scottish economy
Impact of various Brexit options on Scottish economy Photograph: Scottish government

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530160.pdf

Updated

Here are some of the key charts from the document.

Here is the news release summarising the Brexit analysis paper the Scottish government has just published.

Nicola Sturgeon's Brexit speech

Nicola Sturgeon has just started her Brexit speech.

There is a live feed at the top of this page.

UK will stop paying for aid projects that developing countries could fund themselves, says Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt, the relatively new international development secretary, was on the Today programme this morning explaining her new approach to aid policy. She told the programme:

For me, the bar we need to set on aid spending is not just ‘are we spending this money well’ but ‘could we spend it better in the national interest’ and I think we do need to address that issue head on.

Mordaunt was expanding on ideas she set out in an article in today’s Daily Telegraph (paywall). In it, she set out out what she describes as five aid pledges.

Here is my summary of them. (Her article put them in a different order.)

1 - Mordaunt said the UK would no longer pay for aid projects developing countries could fund themselves.

I will not invest when others should be putting their hands in their pockets. It will no longer be enough for a project simply to be achieving good things. We must be able to demonstrate why it absolutely needs to be Britain that pays for them – rather than other donors, the private sector or, where it can, the government of the country itself. I want the governments of developing countries to take responsibility for investing in healthcare or education. If it chooses not to, that will inform our decisions.

2 - She said spending by other departments would contribute to the aid target.

As more government departments make investments in overseas development, I will find new ways to help other departments make their spend more effective. This provides further means for us to invest and does not increase the UK’s deficit. And it also counts towards our 0.7 per cent of GDP aid spending target.

3 - She said she would focus aid spending more on “issues that matter most to the British people”.

I will ensure that our aid spend directly contributes to tackling the issues that matter most to the British people. We are already doing this in some areas. For example, DFID’s research on global health has already helped protect our nation from the risk of global pandemics, and developed new diagnostic tests that are also being used by the NHS. But we will go much further. You will soon see the fruits of work between DFID and Defra to tackle plastics polluting the oceans and to prevent the illegal wildlife trade, both issues the British public care about passionately.

(This does sound a bit like a proposal to start spending money on saving dolphins instead of the world’s poor, but doubtless Mordaunt would object to that characterisation.)

4 - She said she would use aid to assist Brexit.

I will develop alongside the Department for International Trade a bold new Brexit-ready proposition to boost trade and investment with developing countries and promote sustainable economic development and job creation. Development policy will not exist in a vacuum. It will be part of a joined-up response to the challenges and opportunities we face as a country.

5 - She said she would cut funding to organisations that do not deliver on the targets they are set.

Penny Mordaunt.
Penny Mordaunt. Photograph: Nick Ansell/PA


Updated

Sinn Fein MP Barry McElduff resigns after row over Kingsmill Twitter video

The Sinn Fein MP Barry McElduff has resigned - which means we’re getting the first byelection of 2018.

McElduff has been in trouble ever since he posted for a video last year apparently pocking fun at the victims of the IRA Kingsmill massacre. Last week Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, clearly referred to McElduff when she said Sinn Fein’s enthusiasm for eulogising terrorists was a major obstacle to the restoration of the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland.

The byelection is unlikely to to make any difference to the party balance at Westminster. Sinn Fein has held West Tyrone since 2001 and at the last election McElduff had a majority of 10.342.

Barry McElduff posing with a Kingsmill-branded loaf on his head on the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre.
Barry McElduff posing with a Kingsmill-branded loaf on his head on the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre. Photograph: Barry McElduff/Twitter/PA

Boris Johnson 'thinks soft Brexit worse than staying in EU', reports claim

On the subject of Brexit, the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn has a good story about how Boris Johnson has been telling people in private that he fears Brexit could be reversed and that he thinks staying in the EU would be better than a soft Brexit. Here’s an extract.

Boris Johnson has warned allies that Brexit is far from certain and they still face a big fight to deliver it.

The Foreign Secretary and leading Leaver privately shares ex-UKIP boss Nigel Farage’s worries that the referendum result could yet be reversed ...

He has also confided with friends over his concerns that Theresa May will be worn down and eventually forced to accept a bad deal by mandarins and Remain-leaning Cabinet ministers during trade negotiations that start in March.

Boris has told confidantes that still having to accept dictats from Brussels would leave the UK as “just another Norway” and the nationwide vote’s landmark result would have proved “a total waste of time”.

In that soft Brexit scenario, the mop-haired Tory boss has even claimed to pals: “I’d rather us stay in than leave like that”.

In his London Playbook email, Politico Europe’s Jack Blanchard says he has heard much the same thing.

Playbook has heard similar noises from allies of the foreign secretary. Boris reportedly told one that Brexit is “a long way from over,” describing the Remainers’ plan to stay aligned with EU rules and regs after Brexit as “mad” and warning: “You’d be better off staying in.”

Obviously, you would never expect Newton Dunn or Blanchard to reveal their sources for their stories. It is probably just pure coincidence that Johnson himself hosted a drinks party for selected journalists (not me) on Thursday night ...

Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson Photograph: Rick Findler/PA

Good morning. And welcome to the new-look Politics Live. The Guardian print edition relaunches today as a tabloid and the website has been redesigned too.

There have been two breaking news stories on the go this morning.

We’ll be getting a rather different Brexit story this morning when Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, gives a speech to mark the publication of the Scottish government’s Brexit impact assessment. Yesterday she said it was “shameful” that the UK government had not published its own analysis.

Here is the agenda for the day.

10.30am: Nicola Sturgeon gives a speech on Brexit as her government publishes its Brexit impact analysis.

12pm: Labour announces the results of elections for vacancies on its national executive committee. Three Corbyn-supporting leftwingers are expected to win quite easily.

2.30pm: Gavin Williamson, the defence secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

3pm: Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, gives evidence to the Commons public administration committee about the civil service.

3.30pm: A minister is expected to make a Commons statement about Carillion.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’ top 10 must reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

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The skit features Druski with his face painted white, wearing a blonde wig, heavy makeup, and bright blue contact lenses.
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