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Daily Record
Daily Record
Politics
Peter Davidson

Nicola Sturgeon's SNP to miss out on majority at Holyrood election, new poll predicts

The SNP could miss out on a majority at the Scottish Parliament election, according to a new opinion poll .

A Savanta ComRes survey for The Scotsman newspaper predicts that Nicola Sturgeon's party will return 63 MSPs in total - two short of a majority - the same number as in 2016.

According to the poll, which was carried out between April 16 and 20, there would still be a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, with the Scottish Greens forecast to return eight MSPs.

The Greens would have two more MSPs than in 2016 with the party predicted to secure seven per cent of the list vote in this election.

While only one per cent of voters said they plan to vote for Alex Salmond's Alba Party, which would leave it without a single MSP elected.

The poll, which asked 1,001 Scottish adults, projects that the SNP will return a constituency vote of 46% and a list vote of 38% in the May 6 election.

It predicts that the Scottish Conservatives will achieve 25% of the constituency vote and 23% of the regional list, which would see it return 32 MSPs - one more than in 2016.

Scottish Labour is forecast to return 20% on the constituency and 17% on the list vote and is predicted to return 21 MSPs, three fewer than in 2016.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are predicted to return five MSPs, the same number as in 2016, with 6% of the constituency and 5% of the list vote.

Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes said: "These latest figures show the SNP potentially missing out on a majority, but there are still plenty of routes for them to get one.

"While ‘both votes SNP’ has never made the most of the SNP’s dominance, increasing their vote on the List could top up the seats they need, but they’d require a sizable shift in their favour from these latest figures.

"Instead, squeezing the soft Labour constituency vote in seats in South Scotland, for example, could help them overtake the Conservatives and give the SNP the majority they crave.

"That could be easier said than done, though; With the Conservatives up in this poll, and a healthy proportion of Labour voters more likely to trust the Conservatives than their own party to protect the union, the Conservatives will also be trying to squeeze Labour in an attempt to hold off an SNP challenge."

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