The Holyrood election is on a knife edge after a polling guru projected the SNP would fall agonisingly short of an overall majority.
Expert Sir John Curtice said a polling average put Nicola Sturgeon ’s party on 64 seats – one shy of outright victory.
Polls closed last night at 10pm after what has been described as the most important Scottish Parliament election in history.
Votes will begin to be counted this morning and a result is expected tomorrow.
The SNP is aiming for its fourth term in a row and Sturgeon is seeking re-election as First Minister.
She has said an SNP government would push for IndyRef2 before 2023 – if the country is safe from Covid-19.
The Tories are trying to hold on to second place but Labour is attempting to dislodge them to become the main opposition party. Although the SNP is almost certain to win the election, it is unclear if they will secure an overall majority without needing the support of the pro-indy Greens.
In a blog post yesterday, Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said five polls over the previous
48 hours revealed data close to a “prediction” of the result.
The average rating put the SNP on 49 per cent in constituencies, the Tories on 22 per cent, Labour on 21 per cent and the Lib Dems on seven per cent.
On the regional lists, the SNP were on 38 per cent, the Tories on 22 per cent, Labour on 18 per cent, the Greens on 10 per cent, Lib Dems on six per cent and Alba on three per cent.
It gives a projection of the SNP on 64 seats, the Tories on 27, Labour on 22, the Greens on 11 and the Lib Dems on 5.
Based on an assumption that changes in vote share are replicated in every constituency and regional list, Curtice said: “The figures would put the SNP on 64 seats, one short of a majority.
“What this really means is that there is apparently a 50/50 chance the SNP will secure an overall majority on their own and repeat the party’s success in 2011, a success that paved the way for the 2014 independence referendum.”
He wrote that an SNP majority could hinge on nine marginal seats being defended by the Tories or Labour with a majority over the SNP of five points or less.
Curtice added: “Winning six of them would be enough for the SNP to reach 65 seats, irrespective of what happens on the list.
“However, the swing to the SNP in the national polls is not high enough for them to be sure of reaching that target.”
Curtice wrote that the Tories remaining in second place appeared “more certain” from the poll average. He added: “Although Labour is breathing down the Conservatives’ necks on the constituency vote, the party is four points adrift on the list.”
Curtice continued: “The Conservatives have been appealing to unionist voters to vote for them on the list because (they argue) that is best way of stopping the SNP securing an overall majority.
“The veracity of that claim is open to challenge, but it may nevertheless have had some impact on unionist voters.”
Curtice believes the campaign did not have much impact. He wrote: “The average standing of the parties in the final polls are much the same as it was when the five same companies polled shortly before the election campaign began.”
Leaders of the political parties cast their votes in polling stations across the country.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar went to Pollokshields Burgh Hall in Glasgow.
He was standing against Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside, which includes Pollokshields. Flanked by his wife Furheen and four-year-old son Ailyan, dad-of-three Sarwar said he used both votes for Scottish Labour.
Sturgeon, who had voted by post, joined SNP candidate Roza Salih at Annette Street Primary School in Govanhill.
Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie cast his ballot at Notre Dame Primary School in Glasgow’s west end, arriving by bike. His Greens co-leader Lorna Slater voted at a primary school in Edinburgh.
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross was joined by wife Krystle and son Alistair, two, at Alves hall in Moray.
Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie had already voted by post while Alba Party leader Alex Salmond cast
his ballot at a polling station in Strichen, Aberdeenshire.
