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Daily Record
Daily Record
Politics
Peter Davidson

Nicola Sturgeon on course for majority at Holyrood despite SNP support dipping, finds poll

Nicola Sturgeon is still on course to achieve a majority at Holyrood after the election later this week, according to a new opinion poll.

The SNP is predicted to secure 67 of the 129 seats in the Holyrood chamber following the election on May 6.

An Opinium poll for Sky News shows that support for Scotland's largest political party has weakened since the last poll they carried out in April.

According to the last poll conducted for the TV channel the SNP were predicted to win 71 seats, however that is down five in just the space of a month.

A total of 1,015 adults in Scotland aged 16 and over were surveyed between April 28 and May 3.

The SNP would pick up 51 per cent of the constituency vote and 41 per cent of the regional ballots which would translate into 67 MSPs.

Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour party would elect 20 MSPs to Holyrood after getting 19 per cent of the constituency vote and 17 per cent on the list.

The Tories would be the largest opposition party in the chamber with 29 seats, according to the survey.

The Scottish Greens would get eight and the Lib Dems would pick up five seats.

There would be no seats for Alex Salmond's Alba Party or George Galloways's All for Unity party.

Voters were also asked about Scottish independence with support for another vote sitting at 50/50, which is down from 51 per cent for 'yes' in Opinium's last poll.

There has also been a shift in the idea of holding a referendum in the first place, even if the SNP win, with just 28 per cent thinking one should happen in the next 2 years (-5 per cent) and a further 14 per cent thinking it should happen in the next 2-5 years (-2 per cent).

Chris Curtis, Senior Research Manager at Opinium, said: “The campaign finishes much where it started, with razor thin margins set to decide whether Nicola Sturgeon can govern alone, or will need the backing of other pro-independence parties.”

“But despite that fact, our latest polling shows the Scottish public are not necessarily keen on another Scottish Independence referendum.

"Even if she does win a majority, just 43% think there should be one in the next five years, compared to 50% who think there shouldn’t.

"We have also seen Labour voters harden in their view over the campaign, with just 24% willing to back one in those circumstances.”

“Regardless, Sturgeon will argue that a good result this week gives her the mandate to put the question back to the Scottish people, demonstrating just how important this week’s vote will be for the future of the Union.”

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