Nicola Sturgeon made a number of statements at the launch of her latest paper on independence that cannot be contested. She said Scots have “repeatedly” returned a majority of politicians who support independence. True.
She said the country was about to get another Tory Prime Minister who Scots would not vote for. Also correct. Her paper claimed Westminster is based on a “flawed” system of governance. Hard to dispute.
Sturgeon’s problem is repeating these facts gets her no closer to independence or a referendum. The timing of her Government’s latest paper - ‘ Renewing Democracy Through Independence ’ - was clever.
It was published in the middle of a bitter Tory leadership contest, thrusting the Scottish constitutional question into the debate. However, none of the contenders to replace Boris Johnson has shown any willingness to engage on indyref2.
Why would they? It is perfectly conceivable Scots would vote for independence if asked again. The political incentives for an unpopular Tory Government to play ball do not exist.
The First Minister, as even some of her own parliamentarians concede privately, is in a difficult place politically on her flagship policy. Her ‘plan A’ - a joint agreement on indyref2 with the UK Government - is not going to happen.
Sturgeon’s ‘plan B’ - Holyrood ploughing ahead with its own bill without Westminster consent - is questionable legally and may be kicked out by the Supreme Court.
Her final option, namely using the next general election as a ‘de facto referendum’, has been widely panned. Whatever way you look at it, the only route to independence is through a referendum that has the consent of both sides.
The First Minister’s hands are tied on this central point. Her Government is in urgent need of a strategic rethink of its approach to independence.
Instead of focusing on the timing and conduct of a referendum, the Yes movement should concentrate on shifting public opinion. They should be honest about the weaknesses in the independence case and explain why they think the opportunities outweigh the risks.
If Sturgeon is to secure independence, it will be done by winning over ordinary Scots, not judges or Tory leaders.
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