Afternoon summary
- Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said she hopes to lead her party into the 2021 election, not just next year’s. (See 4.49pm.)
- Alex Salmond, the SNP foreign affairs spokesman and Scotland’s former first minister, has said British military intervention in Syria would be pointless. He was speaking in a debate which saw delegates back an emergency motion opposing Britian joining air strikes against Islamic State in Syria. (See 2.47pm and 3.05pm.)
- Alex Neil, Scotland’s social justice secretary, has told the conference the Scottish government will use new powers over welfare “to the maximum” when they are devolved to Holyrood. As the Press Association reports, with powers over some benefits to be devolved as part of the Scotland bill, Neil said work on how these could be used is already under way. The SNP will publish a bill setting out its plans for social security in the new year, he said. This will include scrapping the “84-day rule” under which children who are in hospital for 84 days or more lose their disability benefits. Neil said: “Within the first day of the new powers we will abolish that rule.” He also vowed there would be a “fairer deal” for carers, stating: “The money they get is the equivalent to what a Tory Cabinet minister would spend on a good lunch in Soho.”
- SNP members have narrowly rejected a bid to toughen up the party’s stance on fracking amid calls for an outright ban. (See 11.39am.) Iain Black from the party’s Forth branch, one of the founding members of SMAUG (SNP Members Against Unconventional Gas), told delegates:
We believe that the evidence and the science absolutely and overwhelmingly supports a ban. There’s science, and then there’s science that’s paid for by big business with research grants. The SNP is about healthy communities, you can’t have healthy communities if you destroy the land, if you destroy the air, if you destroy the water that we drink. It’s Scotland’s land, it’s Scotland’s air, it’s Scotland’s water.
But, in an article in the Scottish Sun, Jim Ratcliffe, chief executive of chemicals company Ineos, said fracking offered Scotland a “last chance” to gain economic independence. He said:
Shale gas is Scotland’s best and last chance to gain economic independence. We respect the Scottish Government is deep in thought over fracking. It’s an important decision for the country to take. But take too long and the opportunity will pass by.
England is now moving forward with shale and it would be a tragedy for Scotland if they end up taking the lead in this exciting industry, securing the jobs and investments. It could mean that the north-west of England becomes the next Aberdeen, rather than our central belt.
- Sturgeon has defended the SNP’s record on health and education. (See 10.04pm.)
- The SNP MP Mairi Black has accused the Conservatives of producing “some the most rightwing and cruellest policies imaginable”. In a speech she said:
The parliament I sit in is a top down, out of date and out of touch one. I am witnessing some the most rightwing and cruellest policies imaginable being passed in front of my very eyes.
I often find myself looking across that chamber at the Tory MPs and I think ‘are you so genuinely out of touch that you can’t see the damage you are doing’. Either way I am tired of being lectured by Tories as to why austerity is essential, why these welfare reforms - in fact they’re not reforms, they’re cuts - are essential. I’m tired of being told pensioners cost too much, I’m tired of our young people being told they’re not good enough, I’m tired of immigrants being scapegoated for the mistakes of bankers and politicians. I’m tired of being told that pain and misery are necessary for a stronger economy, for a long term economic plan.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
Tenthred in the comments has an interesting theory about what inspired Alex Salmond’s elephant metaphor. (See 3.55pm.)
Sturgeon says she hopes to lead party into 2021 election, not just next year's
If the SNP win the Scottish elections next year (that if is probably redundant - see 4.11pm), Nicola Sturgeon intends to go on leading the SNP into the next elections too, in 2021. By then she would have been in government, as either first minister or deputy first minister, for 14 years. She made the declaration in an interview with Holyrood magazine.
And what of her future? Given David Cameron has already said he will not stay on as leader for a third term, when does she intend to stand down?
“There’s not much David Cameron does that I wish to emulate,” she laughs. “I think that should be another one.
“Look, I have been first minister for less than a year, and I am about to face an election which for the first time I will look the Scottish people in the eye and say, ‘vote for me as first minister’.
“I think it would be rather strange if I was already deciding when I would stand down, but let’s put it this way, if I win the next election, and I take nothing for granted, then it will be my plan to also fight the election after that as leader as well, all being well and unforeseen circumstances aside.”
(Originally the Scottish parliament had four year terms, but the elections planned for 2015 were postponed a year so that they did not coincide with the Westminster elections and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act means that Scotland cannot go back to four-year terms without another clash.
I posted a tweet about the Ipsos MORI research. (See 4.11pm.) James Morris, who organised polling for Labour when Ed Miliband was leader, has issued a smart response.
Labour strategy of attacking SNP over record on health, education etc unlikely to work, polls suggests - http://t.co/m8eN6BvwyM #SNP15
— AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) October 16, 2015
Or, that it is absolutely vital because unless their scores on theses areas move down; labour cant move its vote up https://t.co/NMFVXDnWGe
— James Morris (@JamesDMorris) October 16, 2015
And the academic Philip Cowley makes the same point.
@JamesDMorris @AndrewSparrow Surely it just shows it *hasn't* worked. But seems vital for them to keep trying...
— Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) October 16, 2015
Earlier I highlighted some criticism of the SNP’s domestic record. (See 11.09am.) But it does not seem to having much impact, according to Mark Diffley, director of Ipsos MORI Scotland. He has written an article looking at the SNP’s polling ratings and he says that, as well as being ahead on voting intentional overall (no surprise), the SNP is also ahead when asked which party has the best policies on issues like health and education.
Our own polling, most recently from August, highlights how SNP support has soared, in particular over the last 12 months. More widely, no poll conducted since May this year has shown the SNP constituency vote below 50 per cent. Moreover, the SNP leads Scottish Labour on the regional vote by at least 20 percentage points in every poll conducted over the same period.
And if the other parties think that recent negative headlines for the Government over key issues such as educational standards and the performance of Police Scotland might signal a change in public attitudes, they may be disappointed.
On almost all the key devolved issues, voters tend to think that the SNP has ‘the best policies for Scotland’ (the only exception is the environment, where the Greens come out on top). In the case of health, education and crime policy, the party’s lead is as significant as its lead in voting intention, suggesting that those headlines do not, at the moment, appear to be damaging the party electorally.
This is particularly bleak for Scottish Labour, whose intended strategy of holding the SNP to account for its nine years in office looks unlikely at this stage to be a vote winner.
In an interview with LBC Alex Salmond produced what must be the most bizarre metaphor ever to explain who the SNP will know when it is right to hold a second referendum on independence.
Alex Salmond on #indyref on @LBC "It's like an elephant coming into your room..you don't know it's coming but you know when it's there"
— Rachel Humphreys (@rachel_hump) October 16, 2015
One obvious problem with this metaphor is that elephants don’t actually come into rooms. And, if they did, they would knock it down (although, if the room is the union, knocking it down is part of Salmond’s plan.)
As LBC’s Rachel Humphreys points out, the elephant isn’t in the room yet.
Alex Salmond speaks to @ShelaghFogarty on @LBC pic.twitter.com/SlZyyq3MkQ
— Theo Usherwood (@theousherwood) October 16, 2015
Updated
In Norman Smith’s interview with Nicola Sturgeon earlier (see 1.58pm) he also put a question to her from a viewer about the European championships. Given that Scotland have not qualified, will she be backing England? Yes, she replied, “I wish England well.” But Scotland was still in the rugby world cup, she said.
She was also asked about her offer earlier this year to take some Syrian refugees into her own home. “That offer stands,” she replied.
If we are in a position where individuals have been asked to open up their homes to refugees, then I would be very happy to play my part in doing that.
But Scotland has not taken any Syrian refugees yet, she said.
Swinney says replacing stamp duty with a land and building transaction tax has taken 10,000 home-buyers out of tax every year.
Swinney says the attainment gap in schools has begun to close. Students from poor backgrounds have never had a better chance of going to university.
Swinney comes to his plan to let councils in Scotland to cut business rates from the end of this month.
The SNP wants to ensure Scotland remains the most competitive place to do business in the UK, he says.
Swinney says broadband is essential. Community Broadband Scotland has been set up to connect communities that BT won’t reach.
Swinney says it takes too long to travel between Aberdeen and Inverness.
This morning the Scottish government signed a contract to upgrade the rail line between Aberdeen and Inverness. It’s a £170m project that will benefit both cities, he says.
Swinney says Scotland has had 12 quarters of uninterrupted growth.
But the government needs to ensure that the economy remains competitive.
And it needs to adapt to the challenges of an ageing population.
Swinney says earlier today a contract was signed to build two new ferries in Glasgow. That will guarantee jobs in the shipyard, he says.
Swinney says just a few miles from here there is poverty that should have no place in a modern country. We are a wealthy country. But we are a country blighted by poverty that should have no place here, he says.
Inequality weakens the fabric of society. It dilutes skills and wastes talent, he says.
There must be a national effort to tackle poverty, he says.
Swinney says, for all the talk of blue-collar Toryism, the cuts are hitting the vulnerable three times as much as they are hitting the rich.
But it has taken Labour a long time to work out what was going on.
Some Labour MPs even wanted to abstain on the fiscal charter.
But the fiscal charter was about entrenching the way on the public sector, he says. Labour should have opposed it from day one.
Swinney says the SNP can be proud of its record.
University tuition is free. Free bus passes for pensioners have been protected, and free prescription charges. The SNP has got rid of the bedroom tax. Household incomes have been helped by the council tax freeze. And the living wage has been introduced for firms with public sector contracts.
Swinney says the SNP has the team and the record to win the Scottish elections next year. It can win a historic third term, he says.
He will be campaign director, he says.
Winning is based on hard work, he says.
Since the election he has heard stories about how bad Labour’s campaign was. In some constituencies they had not knocked on people’s doors for decades. They lost touch with the people. And they took people for granted.
The SNP must never stop listening to people, he says. It is not just good politics. It is who we are.
The SNP are the national party of all of Scotland, he says.
John Swinney's speech
John Swinney, Scotland’s deputy first minister and finance minister, is addressing the conference now.
He starts by praising Nicola Sturgeon’s performance during the general election. She changed the terms of the debate, he says. It is no wonder when the Tory press have branded her the most dangerous woman in Britain.
He does not know when then there will be another independence referendum. It will only happen when the Scottish people want one.
But he knows that the unionist parties are scared, because they know the SNP can win the argument.
Salmond says British military intervention in Syria would be pointless
Here are some of the key points from Alex Salmond’s speech.
- Salmond said that British military intervention in Syria would be pointless. The US, Russia, Turkey, the Australians, the Canadians, the Saudi Arabians, the French, Iranian-backed militias and others were already intervening in Syria, attacking various different groups.
There is nobody in Syria who has no been bombed by somebody. That is why there are 6.5m people displaced ...
Delegates, we need to be the voice of clarity, of sanity and of humanity.
We have to have the clarity to follow the position that adding a few more ageing Tornado sorties will have no military consequences whatsoever, but it will add to human suffering because mistakes will be made ...
Delegates, there should be no more futile military interventions by the UK.
- He suggested that Cameron wanted to intervene militarily in Syria to make up for losing the Commons vote on this two years ago.
We have to the clarity to say we have a prime minister who is still smarting from being turned over in military action two years ago when he wanted to target Assad and is itching to reverse a Commons vote on military action.
- He criticised Labour for being divided on Syria.
And we have a Labour party who are now debating internally what the meaning of a United Nations mandate is. The civil war that we are interested in is the civil war in Syria, not the civil war in the Labour party.
Alex Salmond's speech on Syria
Alex Salmond, the SNP international affairs spokesman and former first minister, is now introducing the topical resolution on Syria. (See 2.07pm.)
Some 6.5m people from Syria have been displaced.
It is not hard to see why, he says. He lists the countries involved in military intervention against Daesh (the term he prefers for Islamic State) involved in bombing in Syria.
The SNP need to be the voice of clarity and sanity, he says.
Joining the bombing effort will not make a difference militarily, he says. But it will add to human suffering.
And David Cameron is “itching” to get involved because he was humiliated by the vote on Syria that he lost in 2013, he says.
There should be no more futile military interventions by the UK.
No more Afghanistans with no exist strategy. No more Libyas. And no more illegal wars like the one in Iraq, which caused so much disaster, he says.
He says Britain, as a country not involved, should go to the United Nations to demand efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully. That approach represents “sanity”, he says.
@AlexSalmond speaking on the topical resolution on #Syria & PM's desire for military action #SNP15 #snpconf pic.twitter.com/0t9z05nAMS
— Angela Crawley MP (@AngelaCrawleyMP) October 16, 2015
Updated
Angus Robertson, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, was speaking at a Times fringe event at lunchtime. Here are some of the highlights.
Angus Robertson is being interviewed at a #SNP15 fringe session by the Times, discussing referendum and Westminster pic.twitter.com/3YWnPH3edd
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) October 16, 2015
Angus Robertson claims he has met "a large number of people" who regret voting No in #indyref, but no one who regrets voting Yes. #snp15
— Jamie Ross (@JamieRoss7) October 16, 2015
There was 15 years between referendums in Quebec; Mr Robertson says "nobody knows" when there could be another one in Scotland. #SNP15
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) October 16, 2015
.@AngusRobertson tells #SNP15 fringe that Yes failed to bring over the large numbers of English people resident in Scotland
— Tom Gordon (@HTScotPol) October 16, 2015
.@AngusRobertson tells #SNP15 fringe he's really proud that party does not "legitimise" House of Lords by sending people there
— Tom Gordon (@HTScotPol) October 16, 2015
Mr Robertson wins a large round of applause for saying the House of Lords should be scrapped. #SNP15
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) October 16, 2015
.@AngusRobertson tells #SNP15 fringe it would in newspapers' commercial self-interest to be more positive about the SNP
— Tom Gordon (@HTScotPol) October 16, 2015
.@AngusRobertson tells #SNP15 fringe that if the BBC don't realise they have an issue with Indy coverage they have a big problem coming
— Tom Gordon (@HTScotPol) October 16, 2015
Mhairi Black, the 21-year-old who is Britain’s youngest MP, is speaking to the conference now. She received a huge round of applause. She is proposing a resolution praising the Scottish government’s initiative that involves consulting the public about how to build a fairer Scotland.
Common Space has a nice picture gallery from the conference here on its website.
The SNP has now released the text of the topical resolution on Syria that it will debate this afternoon. It says:
Conference is opposed to UK participation in ongoing military action in Syria.
Conference believes that any airstrikes carried out by the UK, in addition to the existing bombing campaigns by American, Russian, Canadian, Saudi Arabian, Turkish, Australian, Jordanian, Bahraini and French forces, will be militarily irrelevant and cause further human suffering in Syria.
Conference demands that the UK government instead supports renewed diplomacy to resolve the conflict, recognising that only United Nations sponsored initiatives will carry the international consensus required to bring this civil war and the resulting humanitarian crisis that accompanies it to an end.
The BBC’s Norman Smith was interviewing Nicola Sturgeon this morning and he hijacked her with a Scottish affairs general knowledge quiz. To her credit, she agreed to take part, although her performance was fairly patchy. Here’s the Press Association’s account of it.
A surprise quiz on Scottish heritage left Nicola Sturgeon spluttering.
The first minister started strongly when she was posed a series of questions live on the BBC - boasting she could “name them all” when it came to the Broon family of comic strip legend.
But the SNP leader said she was “never going to live it down” when she hesitated to get beyond one member of the Lisbon Lions - the Celtic team that won the European Cup in the Portuguese capital in 1967.
She badly underestimated the £1.30 cover price of the Scotsman newspaper - explaining that she read it online and declaring that her guess of 45p was what “it should be”.
She was not able to identify a Hawick Ball as a boiled sweet - though her suggestion it was a “rugby” thing may have shown she was aware they were a favourite of legendary commentator Bill McLaren.
But she entirely drew a blank when it came to the profession of Hamish MacInnes - a famous mountaineer.
As the interview with BBC News assistant political editor Norman Smith went on, she conceded she “should know” the name of the first Scot to be prime minister of the UK - adding that “that’s not the name that was running around my brain” when told the answer was Lord John Stewart.
However she was able to name the three “Js” associated with Dundee - jute, jam and journalism.
And she gave what appeared to be the correct answer - Dr No - when asked what the first Bond film was to star Sean Connery - despite being told it was Thunderball.
Updated
Salmond hints SNP could try to block Heathrow expansion unless Scotland gets extra funding
The SNP may refuse to back a proposal to build a new runway at Heathrow unless Scotland secures extra funding, Alex Salmond, the former first minister, has suggested.
In an interview in the Evening Standard Salmond said that, although Heathrow was a private development, it would depend on some public support. And Scotland should get its share, he said. He claimed that Scotland lost out during the Olympics because it did not get its full share of the Olympics spending that it would normally expect to get under the Barnett formula.
Heathrow says it’s a private development, but it depends on at least £5bn of public money, and that’s only the initial estimate. What we’d want to know is that if it were to be a development which depended on infrastructure spending, is that spending going to be properly Barnetted? Or is it going to be another fiddle like the Olympics?
Referring to the Olympics, he went on: “Then, of course, that was in a different political situation. There’s a lot more influence now.”
That is a clear suggestion that the SNP could refuse to vote for a third runway at Heathrow in the Commons unless Scotland gains too. Sir Howard Davies’s airport commission published a report earlier this year recommending a new runway at Heathrow, but the government has not yet said whether it will accept this, or whether it will built a new runway at Gatwick instead. If, as expected, the government does back Heathrow, David Cameron will be anxious to get as much support for that as possible in the Commons because a significant number of Tory MPs may vote against Heathrow and, with Jeremy Corbyn personally opposed to Heathrow expansion, Labour’s support for it cannot be guaranteed.
Salmond also said that he would be meeting representatives from Heathrow and Gatwick shortly and that he would be demanding assurances that, if they do expand, there will be connections to Scottish airports.
The question I’ll ask is, ‘What guarantees will you give in terms of connectivity of Scottish destinations into either airport if they become the choice?’ If the answer is, ‘There are no guarantees’, why on earth would we want to support it?
We have to start talking specifics, not vague generalities. If people say there are no guarantees they can give, then fine. It’ll be quite easy to make up our minds.
Before the conference stopped for lunch there was a session involving ministers in the Scottish government talking about their achievements.
Derek Mackay, the transport minister, said the government was signing a contract for two new ferries.
Scottish Government signing contract for two new ferries at Clyde shipyard right now, Mr Mackay tells #SNP15, "bringing back shipbuilding"
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) October 16, 2015
Shona Robison, the health minister, announced a new investment in GP services.
Shona Robison MSP, 'the health budget now stands at a record £12 billion' #SNP15
— SNPSouthside Central (@SouthsideSNP) October 16, 2015
.@ShonaRobison announces the SNP will invest £6 million from the primary care development fund to improve Digital Services from GPs
— The SNP (@theSNP) October 16, 2015
Fiona Hyslop, the culture minister, announced some museum funding.
.@FionaHyslop announces that Museums Galleries Scotland is to receive £170,000 which will be distributed among local & non-national museums.
— The SNP (@theSNP) October 16, 2015
Alex Neil, the social justice minister, said the SNP government had ensured that no one in Scotland has to pay the bedroom tax.
Alex Neil MSP, 'this SNP government has ensured that nobody has to pay the bedroom tax' #SNP15
— SNPSouthside Central (@SouthsideSNP) October 16, 2015
Roseanna Cunningham, the fair work, skills and training minister, announced a £1m employment initiative.
.@strathearnrose announces £1 million for colleges, schools and employers to work in partnership & help support more young people into jobs
— The SNP (@theSNP) October 16, 2015
Richard Lochhead, the rural affairs, food and environment minister, said the UK government should use any revenue from fines imposed on VW for climate change mitigation.
.@RichardLochhead calls on the UK Government to have any fines or penalties imposed on VW used for the climate change mitigation investment
— The SNP (@theSNP) October 16, 2015
Keith Brown, the infrastructure minister, announced a £170m rail investment.
.@KeithBrownMSP announces a £170m deal to improve the rail links between Aberdeen and Inverness
— The SNP (@theSNP) October 16, 2015
Delegates call for SNP land reform bill to be more radical
The SNP leadership has just “lost” a vote at the conference. Delegates were voting a resolution supporting the Scottish government’s land reform bill, but the resolution was remitted (ie, rejected and sent back for a rethink) on the grounds that it was not radical enough.
Delegates voted to remit by 570 votes to 440.
SNP delegate now calling out the party on #LandReform: saying the party is not going anywhere near far enough for change. #SNP15
— Michael Gray (@GrayInGlasgow) October 16, 2015
SNP delegate: #LandReformBill is too weak. "When you have radical land reform then we’ll sign up to it." #SNP15
— Michael Gray (@GrayInGlasgow) October 16, 2015
"This is a good Bill. It could be a better Bill" says @Feorlean on land reform bill #SNP15
— Andy Wightman (@andywightman) October 16, 2015
This is fascinating debate on land reform at #SNP15 "the land was stolen. Anyone buying it now is guilty of reset" says speaker
— Andy Wightman (@andywightman) October 16, 2015
“Reset” is the Scottish term for possession of stolen goods.
SNP criticises UK government's "gung-ho" approach to fracking
The Scottish government has imposed a moratorium on fracking. Last week it also announced a moratorium on underground coal gasification (UCG), a process where hard-to-reach coal is converted into gas.
But the moratorium only extends to UCG planning issues, because UCG licensing issues are reserved to Westminster.
In a statement issued after the fracking debate, Callum McCaig, the SNP’s energy spokesman, called for Scotland to be given power over UCG licensing. He said:
There is already a moratorium on onshore unconventional oil and gas exploration (ie, fracking) and the Scottish government is undertaking extensive and thorough research on the issue.
This cautious and considered approach is a million miles from the gung-ho approach of the Westminster government. Rather than take the time to understand the consequences of these new techniques and listen to the communities affected – as the Scottish government is doing – they’re going full steam ahead.
Yet while the Scottish Parliament is set to get new powers over the licensing of onshore unconventional oil and gas in the Scotland Bill, powers over the licensing of underground coal gasification (UCG) are to remain reserved.
We may have come to expect this incoherent, illogical and piecemeal approach to devolution from Westminster but, frankly, it’s just not good enough. The Scottish parliament must have full powers over the licensing of underground coal gasification – and the sooner the better.
Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader, has told the Evening Standard that he does not think Jeremy Corbyn will last as Labour leader until 2020 because he does not have the skills of Harold Wilson.
The Scottish nationalist said that leading Labour as a Left-wing candidate required the political “genius” of a man like former Prime Minister Harold Wilson. He then added: “Jeremy is not in the Harold Wilson class.”
Mr Salmond told the Standard: “Jeremy, with the best will in the world, doesn’t know much about economics, nor does he know much about Scotland. But on international policy, he’s taken some stances I don’t agree with or approve of, but nonetheless on major issues he’s been proved right” ...
Mr Salmond said Mr Corbyn would find it hard to survive until the 2020 election as he did not have the full support of his parliamentary party.
SNP delegates back government's moratorium on fracking, though many push for outright ban
The SNP conference has just voted to support the government’s moratorium on fracking, and to urge the government to extend the temporary ban to cover new technologies.
But the SNP leadership came fairly close to “losing” the vote because many delegates wanted to sent the resolution back (to remit it, in conference-speak), not because they favour fracking, but because they want the Scottish government to go much further. They wanted a resolution ruling out fracking for good.
In other words, the debate exposed a division over fracking. But it was not a split between those for and those against. It was more a case of a split between those hostile to fracking, and those totally hostile to fracking.
#Fracking Vote Do the SNP absolutely hate Fracking or totally absolutely hate Fracking #SNP15
— DeniseCouper (@GraceBrodie) October 16, 2015
Some 427 delegates voted for the resolution to be sent back. But they were beaten by the 550 delegates who supported the resolution as it stands. The resolution was then passed.
It says:
Conference supports the Scottish government’s moratorium on “fracking” ...
Conference calls on the Scottish government to consider extending the current moratorium on “fracking” to include the technologies used in underground coal gasification and unconventional gas extraction.
During the debate no one spoke out in favour of fracking, and those who called for a permanent ban received enthusiastic applause.
Massive cheer from delegates at #SNP15 as speaker calls for a complete ban on #fracking pic.twitter.com/IaLW1vozMs
— Lang Banks, WWF (@LangBanks) October 16, 2015
Standing ovation at #SNP15 as delegate tells Jim Ratcliffe of corporate giant Ineos to get stuffed over fracking & his business threats.
— Michael Gray (@GrayInGlasgow) October 16, 2015
Ian Black tells #SNP15: "We used to have slogan It's Scotland's Oil. [Now] It's Scotland's land, it's Scotland's air, it's Scotland's water"
— Tom Gordon (@HTScotPol) October 16, 2015
Iain Black of SMAUG “we don’t need new test wells in Scotland” to tell us #fracking is dangerous #SNP15
— Richard Dixon (@Richard_Dixon) October 16, 2015
When it came to deciding whether or not to remit back the resolution, there was a card vote (involving a precise count) because it was close.
Lots of cards in the air to support remitting the fracking motion back at #SNP15 pic.twitter.com/nZs4aS3g4t
— Catriona Webster (@cat_webster) October 16, 2015
And the conference chair had a good line for those unhappy about having to keep their arms in the air for quite a while.
delegates at #SNP15 voting on fracking told to hold their cards up. "I know your arm gets tired but that's the price of democracy"
— Katrine Bussey (@KatrineBussey) October 16, 2015
The SNP's record in government - What the critics say
After I posted a link on Twitter to my summary of Nicola Sturgeon’s Today interview, someone replied with a question.
@AndrewSparrow Sturgeon's answers sound plausible, but no idea if they stand up to scrutiny. Any recommendations for reading on this?
— Aveek Bhattacharya (@aveek18) October 16, 2015
A comprehensive account of the SNP’s record in government will to wait for another day, I’m afraid, but if you are looking for the case for the prosecution, here is some useful material.
The best single article is probably this one, written by the FT’s John McDermott in Prospect over the summer about the SNP’s record. It was even praised publicly by Tony Blair. Here’s McDermott’s conclusion.
Over the past decade, the SNP has proven itself to be the most successful political party in Europe. It has won seemingly impossible majorities in Holyrood and of Scottish seats at Westminster. Scotland is now a democratic one party state. And from next April, it will be by some measures the most powerful devolved country in the world. Yet if politics is about power then policy is what you do with power. And the SNP has done very little indeed, especially for the poorest Scots it now claims to represent.
And I’ve also been sent a briefing note by the Labour on the SNP’s record in government. It’s not available on the internet, but I won’t post the whole thing because it’s seven pages long. Instead, here are four of the key criticisms it makes of the SNP. Obviously these points are partisan, but they are based on factual evidence.
- Labour says that “spending on health is set to increase more in England and Wales than in Scotland”. (Interestingly, this is a Labour document that by implication praises the record of the Tory government.) The briefing says:
Analysis from the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICE, the equivalent of the House of Commons Library) shows the SNP have only kept the NHS budget constant, despite the rise in demand that patients, their families and our hard working NHS Staff are all witnessing. In the same time, since just before the last UK election, the Tory government have increased NHS spending by over 5%. Despite much larger cuts to English departmental budgets.
- Labour says that Scotland has not Scotland has not met its A&E waiting time target for six years. The source is here (pdf).
A&E waiting times targets are that 98% of patients be seen within 4 hours – this figure has not been achieved for almost 6 years (September 2009 was the last time it was achieved).
- Labour says the number available staffed hospital beds has fallen by almost 1,500 since 2007. The source is here (pdf). Yet in 2006 Nicola Sturgeon said the number of staffed beds should increase, Labour say.
- Labour says Scotland has a poor record at helping students from poor backgrounds get to university.
Scotland has the lowest percentage of university entrants from the poorest backgrounds (26.2%), and the lowest proportion of entrants from state schools (86.9%) in the UK ...
Scotland is unique in having a system which assigns the highest student debt to those from the lowest income homes, due to its much lower use of student grant. Low income university students in Wales receive £5,161 in student grants; in Northern Ireland the poorest students receive £3,475; in England they get £3,354 but in Scotland the same group of students only receive £1,750.
Obviously, this post is focusing on criticisms of the SNP’s record. But I will be reporting what the SNP has to say defending its record at length today and tomorrow as the conference goes on.
At the conference delegates are debating the first resolution of the day, criticising the Tory welfare benefit cuts.
Alex Neil, cabinet secretary for social justice, communities and pensioners’ rights in the Scottish government, has just told the conference that the SNP government is already making plans for when welfare powers are devolved to the Scottish parliament.
.@AlexNeilSNP tells #SNP15 that Scot Govt already making plans for devolution of some social security powers
— Tom Gordon (@HTScotPol) October 16, 2015
But he said the Scotland bill did not go far enough in terms of devolving power over welfare.
Alex Neil MSP calls on Cameron to devolve not only the 14% of welfare spending proposed in the Scotland Bill but the other 86% too #SNP15
— SNPSouthside Central (@SouthsideSNP) October 16, 2015
Most of the other party conferences were shown live on the BBC Parliament channel. But the Commons is sitting at the moment, so BBC Parliament is showing that.
There is, though, a live feed of the conference on YouTube.
Strugeon's Today interview - Summary
It is unusual to hear a UK broadcaster asking any SNP figure about public service delivery in Scotland, and this has let to complaints that the SNP get an easy ride from the London media. And so all credit to James Naughtie for trying to make up for this on the Today programme. It did not make for riveting listening, but it was good public service journalism. Here are the key points from the interview.
- Sturgeon refused to say whether or not the SNP would use the new powers Scotland is getting in the Scotland bill to vary income tax. She would take a decision nearer the time, she said.
I’m not going to rule out or rule in that [putting up tax] at the moment because it will be two years before we have flexible powers over income tax.
Scotland already has the power to vary the basic rate of tax by up to 3p in the pound, but Sturgeon said this had not been used because it would “not be a particularly progressive way of raising revenue.” From next April the Scottish government will get the power to vary the tax rate by 10p in the pound. But Sturgeon also appeared to rule out using this power, saying it was too inflexible. “We are not able to raise or lower the top rate without doing exactly the same to the basic rate,” she explained. Scotland needed more flexible powers over tax, she said. Under the Scotland bill it will get wide-ranging powers to vary income tax rates and bands, although the tax threshold will still be set in London.
- She dismissed claims that Scotland was underspending on health compared to England. James Naughtie quoted figures from the Institute for Fiscal Studies saying that health spending in England went up 6% in real terms between 2009-10 and 2015-16, but that in Scotland it only went up by 1% in real terms. Sturgeon said that those figures “don’t tell the whole story and that they did not take into account “our non-profit distributing capital programme, which is what we had to introduce to compensate for cuts to capital budget”. She went on:
We have passed on every single penny to the revenue budget of the health service that has come our way through the Barnett formula via what are called consequentials ...
When the SNP government took office the health budget in Scotland was around £9bn. Today it is over £12bn. It is £3bn higher than it was when we took office. Waiting times in the health service are lower. So, good progress, but we are ambitious to do more.
We have prioritised health, we have protected the revenue budget of the health service, and spending per head on health is higher than it is in England.
- She played down concerns about spending on schools in England going up more than spending on schools in Scotland. When Naughtie put this to her, she said he was “comparing apples with pears”. Spending per head of population on education was higher in Scotland than in England, she said.
- She dismissed a figure suggesting the educational performance of deprived children in Scotland is falling as “one snapshot survey”. That was her reply when Naughtie put it to her that a 2013 survey showed just 25% of children performing well or very well at numeracy, compared with 29% in 2011. She said that, on results for higher exams, the attainment gap had narrowed. And since 2006 there had been a 50% increase in the number of young people from deprived communties applying for university. “So the attainment gap is narrowing,” she said. But she said that she wanted to go “further and faster”.
- She said she would be arguing “very strongly” for Scotland and the UK to remain in the EU in the EU referendum. She repeated her belief that, if the UK were to vote to leave the EU, that would “undoubtedly spark demands for a second referendum [on independence].”
- She said that Labour was too divided under Jeremy Corbyn to win an election.
I think his big problem is that, although he hold these views, he can’t carry his party behind those views ... He is not united Labour on Trident, on the economy, even on air strikes on Syria. On all of these big issues of the day Labour is deeply divided and it may be the oldest political cliche in the book but divided parties don’t win elections. If people in Scotland don’t see Jeremy Scotland being able to unite Labour, to become a credible alternative government, then what’s the point of voting Labour.
@AndrewSparrow @naughtiej You can download the full interview here: http://t.co/YR9nU0aRQ6
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) October 16, 2015
Updated
Steve Bell has drawn Nicola Sturgeon for today’s Guardian. Here is a video showing him in action.
It’s the second day of the SNP conference in Aberdeen and Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has been doing a round of media interviews. She has been asked repeatedly about her stance on a second independence referendum, but she addressed this in some detail in her speech yesterday and her answers this morning did not add much to what she has already said. Instead what she had to say about domestic policy and about foreign policy was more interesting. The SNP’s critics say that the party’s record in government, particularly on health and education, is actually rather poor and they cannot understand why it continues to do so well in the polls when its record on delivery is, as they see it, mediocre. On the Today programme James Naughtie tackled Sturgeon on these issues at some length. I will cover the exchanges in some detail soon, but here are the key news lines around this morning.
- Sturgeon has defended the SNP’s record on health and education.
When the SNP took office the health budget in scotland was £9bn now it's £12 bn - £3bn higher @nicolasturgeon tells Today prog #snp15
— Elizabeth Lloyd (@eliz_lloyd) October 16, 2015
On education @nicolasturgeon says the attainment gap is narrowing but we want to go further. #snp15
— Elizabeth Lloyd (@eliz_lloyd) October 16, 2015
- Sturgeon has sidestepped questions about whether the SNP would use the new powers being given to the Scottish parliament to raise taxes.
- Sturgeon has questioned David Cameron’s motives for wanting to intervene in Syria.
David Cameron backing air strikes in Syria "to be seen to be doing something" - Nicola Sturgeon
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) October 16, 2015
- John Swinney, Scotland’s finance minister and deputy first minister, has announced plans to give councils the power to cut business rates from the end of this month. He will include this in his speech to the conference this afternoon. The plan has similarities with the plans to decentralise power over business rates to councils in England that George Osborne announced at the Conservative conference.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10am: Conference opens, with debates on Tory welfare cuts, fracking and land reform.
11.30am: Session on Delivering for Scotland, introduced by Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s minister for Europe and international development, and Derek Mackay, Scotland’s transport minister.
2pm: Debates on the living wage and a fairer Scotland.
2.40pm: Emergency resolutions, with Alex Salmond, the SNP’s foreign affairs spokesman and the former Scottish first minister, expected to speak on Syria.
3pm: Speech from John Swinney, deputy first minister and finance minister.
3.25pm: Debates on the EU referendum, sustainable development and rail and infrastructure.
I will be covering all the conference proceedings today, as well as flagging up the best comment and reaction on the web.
If you want to follow me or get in touch on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
First Minister @NicolaSturgeon live on air from Aberdeen with @BBCGaryR on @BBCRadioScot #snp15 pic.twitter.com/sflzfMGz11
— Kevin Jackson (@kevinnjackson) October 16, 2015
Andrew ATL is right - Salmond's elephant metaphor is bizarre in the context.
I wonder if he was bouncing off one of the echoes in his copious memory, and connecting to Ludovic Kennedy famously describing Scotland in a union with England as 'like being in bed with an elephant'?