The heat haze, an almost overwhelming sultriness that had layers of torrid air shimmering above the freshly laid asphalt at the Sepang International Circuit, was not wholly responsible for the moving picture here on Friday.
There is a growing perception – among experienced drivers no less – that Lewis Hamilton, winner of three world championships and among the most naturally quick of all Formula One drivers, can actually be beaten to this year’s world championship by the perennial nearly man who is Nico Rosberg.
It is not the fact that the German leads the competition by eight points, for there are six races to go, starting with Sunday’s Malaysian Grand Prix; nor is it the alluring statistic that no driver has won eight races (as Rosberg has) and not won the championship. It is the swelling sense that Rosberg, so often the diligent and very able understudy, is now capable of stepping up and beating Hamilton in a straight fight to the line.
The sacrilegious whispers have become full-blown predictions. And on Friday one of Hamilton’s greatest admirers, Sky TV’s expert analyst Johnny Herbert, picked up on the notion when he told the Guardian: “Who will win the title? I just pick Nico. My heart would always say Lewis but the way things have gone I think Nico might just have the momentum to carry him through.”
Herbert was following the thinking of his colleague, another former British driver, Martin Brundle, who said: “For the first time I feel that Nico has the speed, ingredients and confidence to take this title in a straight fight but it could well go down to the wire.”
Meanwhile, Daniel Ricciardo said: “I’m going to throw a spanner in the works and say Rosberg. Before the summer break, when Lewis made up that deficit on Nico, I thought no one was going to touch Lewis, but Nico has come back.”
The ferociously focused Rosberg, who produced the best lap of his career to win pole in the last race in Singapore, is also looking more assured these days, even though he is saying much the same thing.
“I’m aware of the situation,” he said. “I’m aware of the points and whatever else – that’s fine but I try and focus on the race weekend I have in front of me. That’s it. I want to win here in Sepang and I’m going to go for that.” We don’t approach Rosberg for jazzy quotes.
It’s not the fact that Rosberg has suddenly become faster than Hamilton. It’s more to do with the suspicion that the British driver may be in the grip of a malaise. Both Rosberg and Hamilton have won seven poles this year. But while Rosberg has won five of those races (71.43%) Hamilton has won only three (43%). And only twice on those seven occasions did he retain the lead at the end of the opening lap.
In 2016 Hamilton has made his most memorable bad starts in Australia, Bahrain, Canada and four weeks ago in Italy, where he dropped from pole to sixth by the first corner. He concedes that his unpromising beginnings could settle the championship. It’s become a mental issue.
We know that Hamilton has the mental resilience to come back hard from adversity, as he did earlier in the season when he turned a 43-point deficit into a 19-point lead. “I wouldn’t say it is any different to positions I have been in the past,” he said, without very much conviction. “I have had ups and downs, tough runs, good runs, and it is not particularly different to any of those. When you are behind you have less to lose, so the hunt is potentially more exciting [than leading from the front].”
But he looked doubtful and what worries his supporters is that his great rival has never looked as serene as this.
“Momentum does give you positivity and that’s exactly what Nico is driving with at the moment,” Herbert added. “He’s this confident person we don’t normally see. He’s bouncing around and looking different.
“Meanwhile, Lewis is a little down. He’s not sure what’s happened. He’s a little confused about the way things are. If you ask him whether he has the car to win the world championship there is bit of a delay in the answer.
“Give these drivers the same car, on the same day, and the same track, Lewis would probably have the edge. But the starts are going to be the key to this. And his starts look fragile.”
Hamilton, who has not won a race since July, is feeling the Sepang heat – 56C on track on Friday – more than anyone.
