There will be an urgent and perhaps belated requirement to take Nico Rosberg seriously if he wins the Chinese Grand Prix here on Sunday. Another victory would extend his lead in the Formula One world championship to more than 20 points. It would also mean he becomes the first driver to win 17 grands prix without securing a world championship; he is currently tied with Stirling Moss on 16.
Rosberg, who finished ahead of his Mercedes team-mate, Lewis Hamilton, in both practice sessions on Friday, would also become the fourth driver to win six consecutive races, joining Sebastian Vettel (nine), Alberto Ascari (seven) and Michael Schumacher (six).
Even after winning the last three races of 2015 and the first two of 2016, there is the reflex response to view his triumphs in the context of Hamilton’s failures; the two men are still young (Hamilton 31, Rosberg 30), but they are such long-standing rivals that they help define each other, like enemies from the vaults of history. While Rosberg won in Australia and Bahrain, it is Hamilton’s poor starts from pole position in those races that have been given a higher profile. In Melbourne, the German finished the race eight seconds ahead of Hamilton, who had to battle back to second after slipping from first to sixth on the opening lap. In Bahrain, Rosberg again capitalised when Hamilton started sluggishly and was involved in a crash with Valtteri Bottas on the opening corner.
It is Rosberg’s misfortune that we are often blinded to his excellence by the starbursts of Hamilton’s brilliance, but he is quick enough and good enough to be a world champion and if he has another good Sunday the suspicion will grow that this could well be his year.
If Rosberg has form on his side in China, Hamilton can fall back on history. He has won here four times, in 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2015. But a Ferrari one-two in Friday’s second practice run, led by Kimi Raikkonen, suggested the red cars are in the mood to gatecrash any Mercedes party and in Hamilton’s case the party will be hard simply to get into given he has acquired a five-place grid penalty for a gearbox change.
Rosberg, though, when asked about his admirable start to the season, played down its significance: “It’s two races into the longest F1 season we’ve ever had, with 21 races,” he said.
He knows well enough how the dynamic can shift over the course of the season. In 2014, Rosberg won the opening grand prix in Australia and Hamilton retired, giving the Briton a 25-point deficit to overcome in the drivers’ standings after one race. The pair were embroiled in a season-long battle for the championship when the lead flipped between the two. Hamilton secured the title in the final race of the season in Abu Dhabi.
Is luck finally smiling on Rosberg now? “Thoughts like that don’t cross my mind because it’s just early days,” he said, and we were expected to believe him. When asked again about his “luck” he replied: “Sorry, no, I can’t see those thought patterns at all, because I’m just looking at getting my job done at the moment. With all due respect, I appreciate your opinion.”
He didn’t show annoyance but he might have felt it. Rosberg is good enough to win F1 races, if not the title, without luck.
“Nico is in a good place,” said the Mercedes motor sport boss, Toto Wolff, on Thursday. “I don’t see him oscillating a lot. He is developing as a person and a race driver.”
One other point of inspiration for Rosberg is that it all started for him here, in 2012. He took pole when he beat Hamilton by more than half a second and then won his maiden grand prix, finishing more than 20 seconds ahead of the second-placed Jenson Button.
Hamilton meanwhile, appears to be going out of his way to show he is not spooked by Rosberg’s run, even though his last victory is slipping beyond short-term memory – it was in Austin last October, when he won his third world title. His next triumph will come as an enormous relief, but he has been a study in relaxed amiability as he prepares for Sunday’s race. He may be very emotional, but he is also mentally strong these days.
This is his 10th season in Formula One, but he still sounded like a giddy debutant when he talked about his sport. “It is the greatest form of racing, the coolest form of motor racing,” he said. “F1 has the fastest cars, the biggest teams, the biggest following, the greatest races, the greatest physical and mental challenges – but I just love getting into the car. If you could see me giggle when I pull out of the garage. I almost lost my voice after that pole lap in Bahrain and that is a feeling that is priceless.”
Hamilton was not giggling after those slow starts in the opening two races. He has not mastered the single, left-handed paddle clutch – last year the drivers used both hands.
He said: “In the past we had two paddles, which did exactly the same thing. You let one out, and then you let the other out. But there is not much difference. We just do the same sequence with one hand. You can use both hands in a pit stop, but I prefer one hand in a pit stop, so no difference really. But the simulator doesn’t really simulate what you experience in a race.”
While the starting issue is unlikely to have as much of an impact for Hamilton here given the grid penalty, and notwithstanding how the Ferrari stacks up on race day, the scenario is unlikely to change much this season; it’s still Hamilton v Rosberg, but Rosberg is close to making it very interesting.
