Despite predictions of a heatwave hitting Northern Ireland this week, it's looking like a mixed picture over the coming days.
After a brilliant weekend of weather across Northern Ireland, warm temperatures will dominate the forecast in the days ahead but it will also be unsettled at times.
While warm air from the south will bring above average temperatures to most parts this week, a series of low-pressure systems will break up any potential sustained warm periods with showers and unsettled weather.
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In recent days, the Met Office computer models have been indicating some uncertainty around the outcome of the interaction between continental high pressure – bringing warm and settled conditions – and low-pressure systems over the Atlantic, which will bring wet and breezy weather.
It looks likely that the low pressure will increasingly dominate, pushing the high eastwards. This means that the plume of warm air will be interrupted by a series of weather fronts, bringing showers that may at times be heavy or thundery.
The Met Office forecast for this period has always indicated it was unlikely we would see conditions anywhere that matched the technical definition of a heatwave, which would require temperatures above the heatwave threshold for an area for three days in a row.
However, almost everywhere will see above average temperatures for May this week and with the warmth will come dry and sunny spells for many.
Showers, sometimes heavy, will also track across the whole country, particularly the north and west.
Met Office chief meteorologist Andy Page said: “The plume of warm air we have been expecting from the south will bring higher temperatures across the whole country over the next week. However, it looks like the effects from the Atlantic lows will prevent sustained high pressure building from the east.
“This means that while we might see some warm - and in places very warm – days, overall the next week will feel more like what we would expect of a warm spell in May, with some heavy showers around, rather than hot summery weather.”
Further ahead, it’s looking likely that the end of the week will see more settled conditions return again, as high pressure begins to build back from the south.
Monday
Heavy rain clearing north through the morning then a warm afternoon with scattered showers developing. These could be heavy at times with a risk of hail and thunder with a maximum temperature of 20C.
Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
It will be unsettled through Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with bands of occasionally heavy rain or showers spreading northeast, but also some dry, bright periods in between. It will also breezy at times.
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