The NHS waiting list in England has fallen to its lowest level in two years – but doctors’ strikes threaten to stall progress, health leaders have warned.
The waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England is down for the second month in a row, NHS figures show, with an estimated 7.36 million treatments waiting to be carried out at the end of May.
That figure relates to just under 6.23 million patients, down from 7.39 million treatments and just over 6.23 million patients at the end of April.
They are the lowest figures since March 2023 for treatments and April 2023 for patients. The list hit a record high in September 2023, with 7.77 million treatments and 6.5 million patients.
The news comes after resident doctors announced a five-day strike beginning on 25 July over the government’s refusal to award them the 29 per cent pay increase they are demanding.
Responding to the latest waiting list figures, health secretary Wes Streeting said that the fall is “not a coincidence”, claiming that instead it is because the government has put in the work to “finally get our NHS moving in the right direction”.
He added: “But this recovery is only just beginning, and it is fragile. It is only with NHS staff and the government working together that we can rebuild our NHS so it is there for patients once again.
“That is why I am once again urging the BMA to abandon their unreasonable rush to strike, and work with us to improve resident doctors’ working lives instead.”
The NHS and the government have a target for 92 per cent of patients to be seen for treatment within 18 weeks by March 2029, and 65 per cent by March 2026. The latest figures show that 60.9 per cent were seen within 18 weeks as of May 2025.
Daniel Elkeles, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals in England, said: “These figures show NHS staff are working flat out to deliver more care to patients, with waiting lists falling and tests, checks and treatments soaring despite record levels of demand.
“Trust leaders now face the bleak prospect of a full five-day walkout by resident doctors, jeopardising this hard-won progress to cut waiting lists and efforts to see patients quicker. The focus now will be on planning to ensure services are as safe as possible for patients.”
Rory Deighton, acute director at the NHS Confederation, which also represents hospitals, said the government has a long way to go and its ambitions will be made even harder to achieve if resident doctors strike, as this could see tens of thousands of appointments cancelled and staff diverted to fill gaps.
Resident doctors carried out 11 strikes over the course of 2023 and 2024, according to the British Medical Association (BMA), which represents resident doctors.
The NHS waiting list has fluctuated during the last two years, but it has been decreasing since August 2024. The last resident doctors’ strikes took place in June 2024, after which a new pay settlement was agreed for a 22.3 per cent increase over 2023-24 and 2024-25.
The government has awarded resident doctors a further 5.4 per cent increase for 2025-26. The BMA’s current pay demand would need resident doctors’ salaries to rise by 26 per cent on 2025-26, and 29 per cent on 2024-25, but it said this could be achieved over a number of years.
Responding to the waiting list figures, Sarah Scobie, deputy director of research for think tank the Nuffield Trust, said: “The government has grand ambitions for the NHS over the next decade, but today’s data underlines just how difficult it will be to meet waiting list pledges alongside deeper reforms.”
She said there is an incredibly long way to go to meet the target, and that another round of resident doctor strikes will inevitably have an impact on patients waiting for treatment.
On cancer, the NHS has seen a slight deterioration in performance, as 74.8 per cent of patients in England urgently referred for suspected cancer were diagnosed or had cancer ruled out within 28 days in May, down from 76.7 per cent in April. It was the third monthly fall in a row.
The government and NHS England have set a target of March 2026 for this figure to reach 80 per cent.
Meanwhile, the proportion of patients who had waited no longer than 62 days in May from an urgent suspected cancer referral, or consultant upgrade, to their first definitive treatment for cancer was 67.8 per cent, down from 69.9 per cent in April – lower than the 75 per cent target.
