Three million patients in England have not had an appointment after being referred by their GP for specialist care, a new analysis has suggested.
NHS England figures last month estimated that 7.36 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of May, relating to just under 6.23 million patients. The new analysis from MBI Health suggests that almost half of these patients have been left in limbo.
Delays in making a first assessment can lead to late diagnosis, worsening symptoms, and pressure on emergency services.
The Patients Association, which represents patients across the country, said that if the figures are accurate then the situation is “staggering” and means that millions of patients are on an “invisible waiting list”.
The analysis comes after data showed that the NHS is making progress in reducing the overall waiting list, after Sir Keir Starmer pledged that 92 per cent of patients would be treated within 18 weeks by March 2029 – a target that has not been met since 2015.
MBI’s analysis found that around 70 per cent of referral to treatment pathways fall into the category of “unseen” after the patient’s GP refers them to a specialist.
The latest figures show how challenging the 92 per cent target will be to achieve, given that an estimated 1 million of the 3 million unseen patients have already gone more than 18 weeks without receiving any care.
The analysis found that ear, nose and throat (ENT), trauma and orthopaedics, gastroenterology, ophthalmology and gynaecology and obstetrics departments were consistently the specialist departments with the greatest number of patients that had not been seen following a referral.
Rachel Power, chief executive of the Patients Association, told The Guardian: “If accurate, 3 million people are trapped in an invisible waiting-list crisis, stuck without basic diagnostic tests of first appointments while their conditions worsen. The scale is staggering, as nearly half of all patients on a waiting list haven’t been seen by anyone. That’s not a healthcare service; that’s a breakdown.”
She added: “These aren’t just statistics. They’re people checking their phones daily for hospital calls that never come, unable to plan their lives while their symptoms deteriorate.”
Last month, figures showed that 56.1 per cent of those on the list at the end of June this year were of working age (defined as between 19 and 64), up from 55.8 per cent a year ago and 55 per cent in June 2022.
At the same time, the proportion of people on the waiting list under the age of 19 had fallen, standing at 10.8 per cent in June this year, down from 11.2 per cent a year earlier and 11.9 per cent in June 2022.
The proportion who are over 65 has remained broadly unchanged at around 33.1 per cent.
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said: “Thanks to this government’s record investment, reforms, and the hard work of NHS staff, we’ve cut the waiting list by over 260,000 since July 2024, which also fell for the first time in 17 years in April and May outside the pandemic. On top of this, we have also delivered 4.6 million appointments – more than double the 2 million we promised.
“This government is delivering the fundamental reform needed to turn our NHS around, and our 10-year health plan will build on this progress to ensure we meet our target that 92 per cent of patients wait no longer than 18 weeks for treatment by March 2029.”
The DHSC did not comment on the 3 million unseen patients.
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