BUFFALO, N.Y. — Bowen Byram will almost certainly be the first defenseman taken at the NHL draft later this month, whether or not the Blackhawks snag him third overall.
When that happens, it will mark just the second time since 2008 that the top-picked blueliner in a given draft measured in shorter than 6-foot-1.
Byram isn’t small by any means, but his 6-foot, 195-pound stature pales in comparison to the hulk-like defensemen chosen in the upper echelons of first rounds earlier this decade — 6-foot-4 Aaron Ekblad in 2014, 6-4 Seth Jones in 2013, 6-5 Erik Gudbranson in 2010.
That new trend of valuing skill over size is omnipresent throughout the cast of future NHL superstars expected to populate this year’s top 15, who spent this past week interviewing with teams and performing physical tests here at the 2019 NHL Combine.
Hawks scouting director Mark Kelley said Friday that Chicago has narrowed the list of candidates for its much-anticipated top pick to six prospects, and though he didn’t name them, it’s not a hard half-dozen to guess. And most of them are, well, a bit more like Alex DeBrincat than John Hayden — understandably so, considering where the league is headed.
Cole Caufield, a 5-foot-7 sniper from Wisconsin inundated by DeBrincat comparisons all week, headlines the bantamweight brigade.
“For Cole Caufield, I think Alex opened a door for him,” Kelley said. “People in my business are gonna say fool me once, fool me twice, good luck. If you did a do-over with Alex, two years [later], where would he go?”
Caufield is far from the brigade’s only member.
Alex Turcotte, another local product arguably tied with Byram as the popular favorites for the Hawks’ selection, is a scrappy 5-11 center known for his ability to get open in dangerous spots.
Trevor Zegras and Peyton Krebs, two of the draft’s top playmakers, are 6-0 and 5-11, respectively.
Consensus top pick Jack Hughes, although obviously not a Hawks selection candidate, even fits the bill at 5-11, 170 pounds. But when one reporter called him “small,” he didn’t take it well.
“I don’t think I’m very small, I think I’m right there in the middle,” he retorted, probably correctly considering the dynamics of the 2019 NHL (but certainly not the 1999 NHL). “You see where the game’s gone, it’s a speed and skill game. Guys like [Johnny] Gaudreau, 99 points, [Nikita] Kucherov, 128, [Patrick] Kane, 110. These aren’t big guys putting up those points. I think I translate well to the new game.”
Scouting has changed to focus on measuring how elite each prospect is at his best skills, rather than how many things he doesn’t do well, said Dan Marr, the league’s central scouting director. And likewise, most teams “don’t look at size anymore.”
That translates to different prevailing characteristics within the top-ranked prospect pool. Compared to the top 30 North American skaters in 2009, this year’s top 30 is — on average — half an inch shorter and five pounds lighter, but scored an additional 0.2 points per game in juniors last season.
It used to be that pocket-sized superstar Martin St. Louis was considered a one-of-a-kind anomaly, a feisty mouse running amok through the NHL’s redwoods.
But the Tampa Bay legend, who retired in 2015, was merely 5-foot-8. Today, that doesn’t seem so odd. Asked for NHL models besides DeBrincat on Saturday, Caufield easily rattled off a list: Columbus’ Cam Atkinson (5-8), Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher (5-9), Vegas’ Jonathan Marchessault (5-9).
“All of those guys having success at the top level [as] slight guys, it’s given smaller guys like me hope,” Caufield said. “The game has changed, it’s more speed and skill, and I don’t think size is a big risk anymore. Smaller guys like me can have a big impact.”
