Some people just never learn. People like me, apparently. Despite being caught out by a tied game in week seven, neither I nor anybody else taking part in our Pick Six contest thought to predict one in week eight. So that’s no perfect scores for anybody. Honestly, what were we thinking?
Still, it couldn’t happen three weeks in a row … could it?
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
This feels like a pivotal moment for both teams in the NFC East. The losers will drop to 4-4, and almost certainly finish the weekend three games back of the Cowboys (currently 6-1, and set to face Cleveland on Sunday). Recent history favours the Eagles, who have won four straight against the Giants and five out of six showdowns at MetLife Stadium since it opened in 2010. But could a bye week tip things in New York’s favour? Odell Beckham Jr claims that his injured hip feels “10 times better” for the rest, and his participation in practice has increased. On the other side of the ball, the Giants are finally seeing signs of life from their pass rush – with five out of nine sacks arriving in the last two games. The Eagles have had a harder time protecting Carson Wentz since right tackle Lane Johnson was suspended.
Giants to win
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
In what is starting to feel like an annual tradition, the Steelers are sweating on the status of Ben Roethlisberger ahead of a meeting with Baltimore. The quarterback has missed seven games against the Ravens over the course of his career (curiously, he has never missed one against another division rival – Cincinnati) and his team has usually suffered as a result. The Steelers are 11-9 against Baltimore when Roethlisberger plays, and only 1-6 when he does not. So this is a tricky pick to make on a Thursday, with his status still very much up in the air.
But I think I might take the Ravens in any case. There is something about this matchup that brings the best out of John Harbaugh’s teams, and they swept the series last season despite finishing 5-11. Baltimore also recovered two key offensive linemen – left tackle Ronnie Stanley and right guard Marshal Yanda – from injury during the bye week.
Ravens to win
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
Both teams have three wins on the season, after recording back-to-back victories in the past fortnight. Both teams made hard work of beating the Cleveland Browns. But only one team, Miami, has Jay Ajayi. The London-born running back has caused quite the stir by rushing for more than 200 yards in consecutive games, and now has a shot to become the first NFL player ever to do so in three straight. That will be easier said than done against the Jets, who boast the stingiest run defense in the league – giving up just 74 yards per game and 3.3 per attempt. But if the Dolphins can oblige their opponents to stack up all their resources against Ajayi, then Ryan Tannehill is a capable enough quarterback to exploit a sparse secondary. It is no coincidence that his two most efficient performances of this season have arrived in the past fortnight as well.
Dolphins to win
Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)
A long road trip for the Panthers, but at this rate owner Jerry Richardson might want to consider swapping coasts on a more permanent basis. His team is 2-0 this season against opponents from the NFC West, and 0-5 against everyone else. It is hard to know whether last week’s win over the Cardinals marked a return to form, or Carolina simply felt the muscle memory kick in against the team that they crushed in last year’s Conference Championship Game. Having Jonathan Stewart back in the lineup certainly seemed to help, but the greatest gains were made by a defense that almost doubled its sack tally for the season in a single afternoon. If Star Lotulelei and company can repeat that performance, this this one might not be close.
Panthers to win
Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)
Don’t look now, but the Titans are only one game out of first place in the AFC North. Three wins in four weeks have elevated them to a .500 record at the season’s midway stage. Marcus Mariota has thrown 10 touchdowns against just a single interception in the past month – giving him a quarterback rating (120.7) that is second only to Tom Brady (133.9) over the same stretch. So is it too much to believe that they could beat San Diego on the road? The Chargers, for all their talent, are a banged up 3-5 team, whose top three reception leaders – Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry – all missed time in practice this week. For a group that already lost Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson and Danny Woodhead, it feels like a lot to take.
Titans to win
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (Sunday 8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am GMT)
If that old maxim about offenses winning games and defenses winning championships holds true, then this round ought to go to the Raiders. Averaging 26.9 points, and more than 400 yards, they rank among the most explosive teams in the league. Derek Carr is being mooted as a potential league MVP, and Oakland’s offensive line, despite (or perhaps because of) its ill-discipline, has been dominant. But this is a different order of challenge to what they have faced so far. By Carr’s own estimation, Denver’s cornerback pairing of might be the best tandem in the NFL. Even if that line does succeed in keeping Von Miller and company off his back, the quarterback may still have a tough time finding guys open downfield.
Broncos to win
