Welcome to the final stretch. Five more weeks to determine which teams are going to the NFL playoffs. Five more weeks to determine who will win our Pick Six contest in 2015.
Nobody did more to help their cause in week 12 than crosbysleftearmk2 - the only person to call all six games correctly. But it is BenniBoe and Uma Blue who lead the way at the top of our overall standings. I’ll get those posted in the comments section shortly. Until then, here are this week’s games.
New York Jets @ New York Giants (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
This New Jersey York City rivalry has been good to the Giants over the past couple of decades. They have beaten the Jets in five straight meetings, dating back to 1996, and each of the last two such triumphs became a springboard toward a Super Bowl victory. Before we laugh off the possibility of a repeat from this year’s 5-6 team, we might want to remember that the Giants finished the regular season with only a 10-6 record in 2007 and 9-7 in 2011.
Still, best not get ahead of ourselves. The Giants need to beat the Jets first, and that is hardly a foregone conclusion. Both teams have lost four of their last six games, but Gang Green can at least feel a measure of positive momentum after their win over Miami last weekend. Their neighbours were dismal in defeat to Washington.
Not for the first time, you sense that the Giants will need to put this game on Eli Manning’s shoulders. Their running game has been abject, and the Jets are giving up the fewest yards in the NFL on the ground. Playing in Manning’s favour is the fact that Darrelle Revis is expected to miss out as he continues to work his way through the league’s concussion protocol. But against Manning is the knowledge that he threw for 321 yards last week, and still finished up on the losing side. Jets to win
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
It has been more than a year since the Titans won a home game. So long, indeed, that their home stadium had a different name. Their final victory at LP Field was against the Jaguars on 12 October 2014. Will their first at the suspiciously similar Nissan Stadium arrive against the same opponents on Sunday?
The Titans certainly pushed these same opponents close in Jacksonville two weeks ago, only to blow it all inside the final four minutes – when they allowed Rashad Greene to rip off a 63-yard punt return that set the Jags up for a go-ahead touchdown. On the first play of the next series, Phillip Supernaw fumbled away possession again.
Such sloppiness, though, is exactly why this game is so tough to call. The Jags are just as adept at shooting themselves in the foot, converting only 41.7% of red zone visits into touchdowns – the third-worst rate in the NFL. Against San Diego last week, Blake Bortles killed two scoring opportunities by letting go of passes beyond the line of scrimmage. I feel as though I’m not really picking a winner for this game, so much as I am the team that I consider (marginally) less likely to contrive a way to lose. Jaguars to win
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
A month ago, the Texans were 2-5 and drifting towards another wasted season. Today they are 6-5 and leading the way in the AFC South. What happened to this team to transform it from a lost cause to a playoff contender? How does a group that gave up 28.4 points per game over its first seven outings cut that figure all the way down to 8.75 per game in the last four?
That question cannot be answered entirely through favourable matchups. Houston held a Cincinnati offense that ranks fourth in the league for scoring to just six points. The Saints, for all their problems, had scored at least one touchdown in 156 consecutive games before they ran into the Texans.
JJ Watt is playing his best football of this season, with 7.5 sacks and 23 quarterback hits in the last four weeks, but it is the improved play of those around him – and especially cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph and Kevin Johnson that are taking this group to another level. The offense is no better than functional, DeAndre Hopkins the lone playmaker of note in Arian Foster’s absence. Against a Bills team that has mustered only two wins outside of its division, that could be enough. Texans to win
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
That was an impressive win for Seattle over the Steelers last week, but we can expect this week’s game to look very different. Where the matchup with Pittsburgh turned into a shoot-out, Sunday’s clash with Minnesota will more likely be defined by each team’s ability to run the ball – and keep their opponent from doing the same.
The Vikings are 7-1 when they amass more than 100 rushing yards, but only 1-2 when they do not. This would seem to bode well for Seattle, who are giving up a meagre 92.9 yards per game on the ground.
Adrian Peterson will give them a sterner challenge than most, and he averaged 5.1 yards per carry against an even better Broncos defense in week four. But 48 of his 81 yards that day came on a single play. And that was also the one occasion when Minnesota failed to win despite crossing the 100-yard rushing threshold as a team.
The Vikings have been the better team for most of this season, and on that basis a large part of me feels that I ought to be leaning their way at home. But there was something in Seattle’s win over Pittsburgh, a degree defiance that just makes me think that they might be about to turn a corner. Even without the injured Jimmy Graham, this team still has the tools to go far. Seahawks to win
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
Are the Falcons really falling apart, or is it just Matt Ryan? Through the first four weeks of this season, back when many people believed that Atlanta, not Carolina, were the team to watch in the NFC South, he turned the ball over just twice. He has done so 13 more times in the seven games since, as the Falcons slid from 4-0 to 6-5.
Worse than the mere fact of these mistakes has been the timing of them. Both the fumble and the interception that Ryan lost during Atlanta’s week eight home game against Tampa Bay came in the opposition half – killing what could have been scoring drives. Instead, the Falcons succumbed to an overtime defeat.
Last week, Ryan was picked off in the end zone by Minnesota’s Terence Newman. In the game before that, against Indianapolis, his three interceptions included a horrific throw out of his own end zone that D’Qwell Jackson returned for a touchdown. The Falcons, who had been leading 21-14 prior to this mistake, wound up losing by three points.
And yet, you can consider me once bitten, twice shy when it comes to the Bucs. I backed them to beat Indy last week only to see them shut out in the second half by a Colts defense that really is not that good. The rout of Philadelphia a week previously might have led us (or at least me) to overestimate this team. The Falcons are good enough to beat them, as long as Ryan can stop getting in the way. Falcons to win
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4.05pm ET/9.05pm GMT)
Even more impressive than the Texans’ turnaround has been that of the Kansas City Chiefs. Winners of five games straight since opening the season at 1-5, Andy Reid’s team does not have an opponent left on its schedule with a winning record. But it does have a trio of divisional games left to play, of which this looks like the most important.
Win, and the Chiefs will put two games between themselves and Oakland in the AFC West – as well as furthering their wild card cause. Lose, and they will be dragged back to 6-6, with playoff hopes potentially taken out of their hands (depending on results elsewhere), even if they win the rematch in week 17.
So which is it? I find myself leaning towards the Chiefs, working on the assumption that their abundantly talented secondary will get back to playing like it did from weeks eight to 11, after a dip against Buffalo. But I will add that Justin Houston’s potential absence with a hyperextended knee definitely diminishes my confidence. Chiefs to win
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