The NFL is going soft. That’s what Donald Trump told us, at any rate, and when did an aspiring politician ever lie before? Still, nobody could make the same claim regarding our Pick Six contest. Just a single person managed to call all six games correctly in week five, and even that was an improvement on the zero people who had done so in week four.
So raise a glass, please, for trg1983. And then set to work trying to match his achievement as you have a crack at this week’s games:
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm BST)
I stuck my neck out by picking the Falcons in Denver last week but, despite being right on that occasion, am reluctant to do so again. On the most basic level, winning road games against high quality teams on consecutive weekends is a tall order. This effect is only amplified by the fact Seattle are coming off a bye. Besides resting up, the Seahawks have had time to study the strategy that Atlanta deployed against the Broncos – when Matt Ryan targeting his backs more often than his receivers in the passing game. On paper that looks like a good way to attack the Seahawks, whose safeties are too good to let Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu get loose downfield as they had against lesser opponents. But with the element of surprise lost, my suspicion is that such an approach would prove less effective here.
Seahawks to win
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm BST)
Can a change at offensive co-ordinator set Baltimore back on track? The Ravens responded to consecutive defeats by firing Marc Trestman and promoting quarterbacks coach Marty Mornhinweg in his stead. Their priority now must be to restore some kind of balance to an offense which had placed too heavy a burden on Joe Flacco. It is crazy to think that tailback Terrance West was given just 11 carries during last week’s loss to Washington, despite averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. The Giants themselves have lost three games on the bounce, and they arguably have less grounds for optimism – since there is little evidence that they could run the ball effectively even if they tried. But Baltimore’s injuries trouble me. Three-fifths of the starting offensive line missed time in practice this week, and so did No1 receiver Steve Smith. At time of writing it is not yet known whether he, guard Marshal Yanda, or tackles Ronnie Stanley and Rick Wagner will be ready to go on Sunday.
Giants to win
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm BST)
The good news for Carolina is that Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart have a shot at playing this Sunday (though the quarterback will still need to clear the league’s concussion protocol). The bad news is that, even if they do, neither can contribute towards slowing down a Saints passing attack that is averaging more than 300 yards per game. Instead, that role is left to a struggling secondary in which rookie cornerbacks James Bradberry and Daryl Worley have sometimes looked badly overmatched. Matt Ryan torched them for 503 yards in Atlanta two weeks ago, and my fear would be that Drew Brees, at home and coming off a bye, might enjoy a similarly productive afternoon.
Saints to win
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm BST)
Is there hope left for either one-win team? The Bears have improved significantly since Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard took over the backfield. The Jaguars beat Indianapolis in London before their bye and have the potential to play much better if Blake Bortles could only recapture the rhythm he established last season with receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. And yet, I have no faith in either team’s ability to close out a game. Jacksonville very nearly contrived to throw away a 23-6 fourth quarter lead against the Colts, giving up three late touchdowns and barely scraping a three-point win. A week later, Chicago lost to those same opponents because Hoyer – despite having completed an impressive 70% of his passes for 1,016 yards, six touchdowns and no picks over the past three games – somehow failed to spot Alshon Jeffery running wide open in the end zone. Maybe he learned from that mistake. Then again, maybe he didn’t.
Bears to win
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm BST)
The Rams’ offense is the least effective in the NFL, averaging fewer than 285 yards per game, and yet that did not stop them from beating Seattle, Tampa Bay or Arizona. It turns out that you can mask a good many flaws when your defense is consistently overwhelming opponents at the line of scrimmage. Injuries to Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn, however, have rather changed the outlook. Both players missed the defeat to Buffalo in week five and their status for this weekend is up in the air. Cornerback Trumaine Johnson looks certain miss out after injuring his ankle during the loss to the Bills. If Matthew Stafford and company can take advantage of such absences to get ahead early, then I just can’t imagine Case Keenum will keep up.
Lions to win
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (Sunday 8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am BST)
A new week, but the same old question: can Indianapolis keep Andrew Luck upright long enough to win this game? Nobody could doubt that he would win a straight shootout with Brock Osweiler, and the Colts are also getting more yards per carry from Frank Gore than the Texans have had from Lamar Miller. But Luck has now been sacked 20 times in five games, and if anything the blocking up front seems to be deteriorating. The Indianapolis Star noted this week that the 11 sacks Luck has taken over the last two games are more than Peyton Manning sustained in the entire 2009 season. So why am I still picking the Colts to win on the road against opponents who have rushed the passer pretty effectively, even in JJ Watt’s absence? Call it a hunch, influenced by recent history. Although the Texans won the last matchup between these teams, they had lost six straight before that.
Colts to win
