Not one person managed to call all six games correctly in last week’s edition of our Pick Six contest, but this is not the time to feel downhearted. After all, it could be worse. You could be Odell Beckham Jr, getting outshone by a ballboy on Monday Night Football.
Onwards and upwards. Here are this week’s games:
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos
Averaging a staggering 38 points per game, not to mention 354.2 passing yards (50 more than the next best team), the Falcons just lit up a Carolina defense that was thought to be among the league’s best. So could they do something similar to Denver on Sunday? Instinctively, my answer is no: the memory of how the Broncos’ swallowed up one passer after another on the way to last season’s Super Bowl is too vivid. But then I look again at those numbers. Matt Ryan has 10.5 yards per attempt this season – a first down, on average, every time he drops back to pass. And if it is important to note that (Carolina aside) he has faced some shabby defenses, then should we not also observe that Denver’s four vanquished opponents so far hold a combined record of 5-11? This feels ripe for an upset to me.
Falcons to win
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
It’s not easy to get behind the Titans. This is a team that won five games combined over the last two seasons. The easy thing would be to glance at this year’s 1-3 record and assume that not much has changed. Easy, but possibly misguided. After all, every Tennessee defeat has come against a good team – the Vikings, Raiders and Texans have a combined 9-2 record – and the last two of those losses went to the final possession. Were it not for a blown punt coverage and a 12-men-on-the-field penalty that turned another punt into a field goal – mistakes that cost special teams co-ordinator Bobby April his job – they might well have beaten Houston. The Dolphins, meanwhile, needed overtime to seal their only victory, over Cleveland, and unlike Tennessee do not have a reliable ground game to fall back upon. Oh, and they had to cancel practice on Thursday to give players and staff time to prepare for Hurricane Matthew.
Titans to win
Washington @ Baltimore Ravens
It a less than 35-mile drive from Washington’s FedEx Field to Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium, yet this will be just the sixth time that these teams have ever met in a regular season game. It has the makings of a good one, the visitors arriving fresh from consecutive wins whilst the hosts seek to rebound from their first loss of the season. Washington sought to shore up a depleted secondary by adding free agent safeties Donte Whitner and Josh Evans this week, but the bigger concern for me revolves around the team’s offensive play-calling. Jay Gruden has been loath to run the ball despite obtaining good returns when he does. A heavy dose of Matt Jones might offer Washington’s best hope of softening up the league’s stingiest defense, but will Washington’s coaching staff have the patience to deliver it?
Ravens to win
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts
Will the jet lag still be nagging at the Colts, as they become the first team to return from a London game without a bye week? And does it really matter, given what a terrible job they were doing of protecting Andrew Luck even before their trip across the pond? Already this season he has been sacked 15 times, the most of any quarterback in the league. The good news for Indy is that the Bears lack the pass rushing talent to exploit this glaring weakness to its fullest. And whilst Chicago’s offense might actually have been strengthened by injury – Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard offering more so far than Jay Cutler and Jeremy Langford had done – I’m not convinced they have the tools to hang in during that inevitable part of the game when Luck does find enough time to find a few targets downfield.
Colts to win
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
At what point do we start to take the Rams seriously? At 3-1, they sit top of the NFC West and have beaten both the Seahawks and Cardinals to get there. Their defense, with Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers causing havoc up front, has smothered opponents at times. On the other hand, the offense is horrid. Case Keenum is a barely serviceable journeyman quarterback throwing to a mess of middling receivers. The one genuine talent on that side of the ball, Todd Gurley, is averaging 2.6 yards per carry behind a hapless and overmatched offensive line. Can this formula really succeed over the course of a season? More immediately, can it succeed against a Buffalo team that has been similarly effective on defense, but combined that strength with consistent success running the ball?
Bills to win
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Will Dez Bryant be ready to go for Dallas on Sunday? What about left tackle Tyron Smith, cornerback Orlando Scandrick or even kicker Dan Bailey? The list of injured Cowboys only seems to get longer, and this feels like a week in which that reality might finally catch up to them. The Bengals are one of only two NFL teams that is yet to give up a rushing touchdown to any opponent, and the return of Vontaze Burfict last week has only strengthened the front seven further. Will Ezekiel Elliott be able to punch through behind a depleted offensive line? And on defense, who will cover AJ Green? Even if Scandrick does suit up, will he be at 100% for what has the potential to become a pivotal individual matchup?
Bengals to win
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