
The 2025 NFL season is beginning to take shape. The leaves are falling and the calendar is turning.
Sunday will feature October’s first full slate of games, and it’s a good one. In Philadelphia, the Eagles try to run their record to a perfect 5–0, but can they block the Broncos? In an NFC clash between two 1976 expansion teams, the Seahawks and Buccaneers will be wearing their original uniforms in a contest likely to be decided by how Seattle holds up against a banged-up Tampa Bay passing attack.
At SoFi Stadium, can Jayden Daniels overcome his knee injury to rally the Commanders past the Chargers? Looking at the data, the game might actually be decided when Daniels is on the sideline. On Sunday night, can Drake Maye and the Patriots pull an upset in Buffalo? To do it, New England has to slow down the best running game in the league.
And finally, the Chiefs and Jaguars square off in Duval County on Monday night. Kansas City must hold onto the ball. And, more to the point, if Jacksonville can’t rip it away, an incredible stat (see below) says the Jaguars have virtually no chance of winning.
But we start in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Eagles try to do what they always seem to do. Win.
Broncos (2–2) at Eagles (4–0)
Spread: Philadelphia -3.5
Key matchup: Philadelphia’s offensive line vs. Denver’s pass rush
Key stat: Denver is second in sack percentage (10.1%) and first in sacks (15).
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Broncos are going to hand the Eagles their first loss of 2025, and their first defeat with Jalen Hurts playing 60 minutes since Week 4 of last season, it will start up front.
Denver has the league’s best defensive front by sacks, with 15. Those sacks, though, have come against some of the league’s worst offensive lines, including the Titans, Chargers and Bengals, which rank 30th, 19th and 29th in sack percentage allowed, respectively. This is a much tougher test against an Eagles line with four Pro Bowlers, including tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, center Cam Jurgens and guard Landon Dickerson.
However, a surprising stat. Philadelphia ranks 23rd in sack percentage allowed (8.2%) while throwing only 101 times, the fewest attempts going into Week 5. Translation? The Broncos aren’t going to have many chances to pin their ears back, but when they do, success could be found, even against some household names.
If Denver does get home, look for Nik Bonitto to be the reason. Bonitto is developing into an All-Pro player with 4.5 sacks and 11 quarterback hits, ranking second and first in those categories.
Verderame’s Verdict: Philadelphia 19, Denver 15

Buccaneers (3–1) at Seahawks (3–1)
Spread: Seattle -3
Key matchup: Seattle’s secondary vs. Tampa Bay’s passing attack
Key stat: The Seahawks have faced three of the worst seven passing offenses.
Date, Time, TV: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
What are the Seahawks? How good is the defense really? We’re about to find out.
Through four weeks, Seattle has played against Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, Spencer Rattler and Kyler Murray. Those passing rank second, 26th, 27th and 28th, respectively. It’s worth noting that Seattle’s one loss was to Purdy and the Niners.
Tampa Bay’s passing attack is ranked 15th despite dealing with injuries to receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. Baker Mayfield is also struggling to a degree, completing 59.7% of his attempts while posting a 45.7% success rate, good for 23rd among qualifying quarterbacks.
Against Seattle, Mayfield will need to have a good game. Running back Bucky Irving is dealing with foot and shoulder injuries that sidelined for Wednesday’s practice. Additionally, the Seahawks are tied for fourth-best in yards per carry allowed (3.6).
Mayfield is capable of having a big game despite the expected absences of Evans, Godwin and McMillan, mostly because rookie Emeka Egbuka already has 282 yards and four touchdowns. Pay close attention to Egbuka against Devon Witherspoon.
Verderame’s Verdict: Tampa Bay 23, Seattle 18
Commanders (2–2) at Chargers (3–1)
Spread: Los Angeles -3
Key matchup: Washington’s pass rush vs. Los Angeles’s injured front
Key stat: Justin Herbert has been sacked 12 times this season.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
There are a few things trending the right way for Washington this week.
For starters, quarterback Jayden Daniels will return after missing two games with a knee injury. Additionally, the Chargers will be without a pair of stud tackles, with Rashawn Slater (torn patellar tendon) and Joe Alt (high ankle sprain) both out. While Slater is out for the year and has been since summer, Alt’s injury was sustained on Sunday. This will be the first time Justin Herbert doesn’t have either for an entire game since Week 4 of last season, when Los Angeles fell 17–10 to the Chiefs and averaged 4.2 yards per play, including 2.3 yards per carry.
Can the Commanders take advantage? They’ll face an offensive line that has allowed sacks on 7.5% of drop-backs, ranking 14th in the league. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense has been middling in pressure numbers, sitting 23rd in pressure rate (18.4%) and 28th in hurry rate (3.5%). For the Commanders to win, they will have to pressure Herbert, who has already thrown for 1,063 yards and seven touchdowns.
Watch Dorance Armstrong Jr. and Von Miller, who will be the duo primarily assigned to take on Los Angeles’s backup tackles in Trey Pipkins III and Austin Deculus. Last week, the pairing allowed 12 quarterback hits to the Giants.
Verderame’s Verdict: Los Angeles 24, Washington 23

Patriots (2–2) at Bills (4–0)
Spread: Buffalo -7.5
Key matchup: Buffalo’s run game vs. New England’s front seven
Key stat: The Patriots have allowed 3.3 YPC, second-best in the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
It has not been easy running against New England this season.
Before Sunday’s win over the Panthers, no team had rushed for more than 63 yards against the Patriots, despite all three of those games being close. Carolina did manage to rack up 129 yards on 4.6 yards per carry, but that came in a 42–13 New England rout.
Buffalo enters Week 5 with the most prolific rushing attack in the sport, gaining 163.5 such yards per game. James Cook is second in the NFL with 401 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, while Josh Allen has contributed 159 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
While New England has enjoyed success limiting teams in this capacity, it also hasn’t faced a dual-threat quarterback this year, with Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers and Bryce Young as their prior opponents. Those four have rushed for 153 yards combined.
If the Patriots can contain Allen and limit Cook, they will have a chance at an upset. If not, it will be a long night in Buffalo.
Verderame’s Verdict: Buffalo 22, New England 20
Chiefs (2–2) at Jaguars (3–1)
Spread: Kansas City -3.5
Key matchup: Kansas City’s ball control vs. Jacksonville’s ballhawks
Key stat: The Jaguars have created a league-high 13 takeaways.
Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
The Jaguars are taking the ball away at a historic pace this season.
Jacksonville, after having just nine takeaways last year, already has a league-best 13 this time around. The defense has picked off nine passes, with linebacker Devin Lloyd and slot corner Jourdan Lewis combining for five. And yet, on Monday night, they’ll face one of three teams that have committed only one turnover thus far.
The Chiefs have been uneven offensively, ranking 17th in yards per play (tied with Jacksonville), 17th in total yards and 15th in points. Still, in receiver Xavier Worthy’s return in Week 4, they put up 37 points and 382 yards on the Ravens in a blowout win. Against Jacksonville, Kansas City’s biggest chore will be taking care of the ball, something it has typically done well. Last year, the Chiefs had 14 turnovers, ranking fourth-best.
A few historical notes on this matter: The Jaguars haven’t lost the turnover battle and still beaten a team that finished with a winning record since Week 12 of the 2023 season, when they toppled the Texans, 24–21. As for Kansas City, it has a 34-game winning streak in the regular season when winning the turnover battle, not losing since Week 6 of 2019.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 5: Key Matchups, Predictions for Eagles-Broncos, Bucs-Seahawks and More.